<p>The Middle East and North Africa is the world&#39;s crossroads. It encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between. The story of the region, as is so often the case of places stuck between foreign players, is the story of trade, exchange and conflict. The traditional powers of the region are Turkey and Iran &mdash; Saudi Arabia and Egypt are the current Arab powers &mdash; and their competition for influence over the region&#39;s weaker states makes the Middle East and North Africa an arena of violence and instability.</p>

The Middle East and North Africa encompasses the Arabian Peninsula, the mountains of Iran, the plains of Turkey, the deserts of the Levant, the lands north of the Sahara and all coasts in between.

Middle East and North Africa

Algeria

Bahrain

Egypt

Iran

Iraq

Israel

Jordan

Kuwait

Lebanon

Libya

Morocco

Oman

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Syria

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Western Sahara

Yemen

The Syrian Civil War

The Yemen Civil War

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Saudi Survival Strategy

The Kurdish Struggle

Iran's Arc of Influence

Israel's Survival Strategy

The Difficulties of North African Reform

Egypt's Uphill Battle

The Battle for Mosul

Assessments

A smoke plume rises above destroyed buildings in northern Gaza on Jan. 13, 2025.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

The truce will improve Israel's ties with Lebanon and Egypt, but eventual violations could reignite regional tensions, as could Israel's intensified counter-insurgency operations in the West Bank.

The Regional Implications of the Gaza Ceasefire

Ethiopia

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Politics

In the coming decade, water scarcity will likely contribute to the erosion of Egypt's economic and political independence, including its ability to act unilaterally against other countries vying for water along the Nile basin.

The Geopolitics of Water: The Threat to Egypt's Independence

People celebrate while watching news coverage of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 15, 2025.

While it may de-escalate the current war, the deal does not address all drivers of conflict between Hamas and Israel, nor does it outline a post-war strategy for Gaza, portending a gradual return to violence.

A Ceasefire Eases the Gaza War, but Leaves Embers To Ignite the Next One

United States

China

Europe

Russia

Cyber

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

An exterior view of the building of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters is seen on March 27, 2020, in Washington, D.C. 

Economics

The partial privatization of state- and military-owned assets will increase Egypt's foreign currency reserves, but it will likely only somewhat boost productivity and business competition.

IMF Pressure Breathes New Life Into Egypt's Privatization Efforts

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Taiwan

Ukraine

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

A billboard depicting a Houthi military official who was killed during Yemen's civil war overlooks the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa on Jan. 2, 2025. 

When its increased attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen likely fail to deter the militants, Israel will escalate further, potentially spreading the conflict into the Gulf states and restarting the Yemeni civil war.

Israel's Expanding Campaign in Yemen Risks Reigniting the Civil War

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

South Asia

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025. 

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

Venezuela

South Korea

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro waits for the arrival of other heads of state of members of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America regional trading bloc during the XXIV ALBA-TCP Summit in Caracas, Venezuela, on Dec. 14, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Inaugurations in Ghana and Venezuela, Yoon's Potential Arrest in South Korea

Columns

On Geopolitics

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty that includes cooperation on trade, defense, culture and science, though specific details were not publicized, AP reported on Jan. 17.

Russia, Iran: Russia and Iran Sign Comprehensive Treaty in Moscow

Israel's security Cabinet voted to approve the three-phase ceasefire deal with Hamas, with the full Cabinet set to vote on Jan. 18, The Times of Israel reported on Jan. 17. 

Israel, Gaza: Ceasefire To Take Effect on Jan. 19 Pending Full Cabinet Approval

During a confirmation hearing with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, said the incoming administration would reverse Biden-era sanctions on violent Israeli individual settlers and entities, The Times of Israel reported Jan. 16.

U.S., Israel: Trump Nominee Pledges To Lift Sanctions on Violent Israeli Settlers 

Sudan

The United States will impose financial sanctions on the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Reuters reported on Jan. 16, citing three different sources with knowledge on the matter.

Sudan: U.S. To Sanction SAF Leader Following Reported Chemical Weapons Use 

Kenya and the United Arab Emirates signed a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement during a visit by Kenyan President William Ruto to the United Arab Emirates, The Eastleigh Voice reported on Jan. 15.

Kenya: Ruto Signs Economic Partnership With UAE, Seeks Emirati Investments for Railway Expansion

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Kier Starmer and Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani inked a 12.3 billion pound, roughly $15 billion, trade and investment deal as the two countries seek to reset ties, a bilateral security deal and discussed the return of irregular migrants to Iraq, Reuters reported Jan. 14. 

U.K., Iraq: U.K. and Iraq Sign 12.3B Pound Trade Deal and a Security Pact to Improve Bilateral Relations

Two members of the Syrian provisional government's Military Security Department were killed in clashes with supporters of the former al Assad government in Latakia on Jan. 14, The New Arab reported on Jan. 15.

Syria: Clashes in Latakia Challenge Security Transition

Israeli, Arab and U.S. officials said Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas had agreed in principle to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, CBS News reported on Jan 14. 

Israel, Gaza: Hamas, Israel Reach Agreement in Principle for First Phase of Ceasefire

Middle East and North Africa

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Iran: Russia and Iran Sign Comprehensive Treaty in Moscow

Israel, Gaza: Ceasefire To Take Effect on Jan. 19 Pending Full Cabinet Approval

U.S., Israel: Trump Nominee Pledges To Lift Sanctions on Violent Israeli Settlers

Sudan: U.S. To Sanction SAF Leader Following Reported Chemical Weapons Use

Kenya: Ruto Signs Economic Partnership With UAE, Seeks Emirati Investments for Railway Expansion

U.K., Iraq: U.K. and Iraq Sign 12.3B Pound Trade Deal and a Security Pact to Improve Bilateral Relations

Syria: Clashes in Latakia Challenge Security Transition

Israel, Gaza: Hamas, Israel Reach Agreement in Principle for First Phase of Ceasefire

Forecasts

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