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Military & Security

A Houthi spokesperson said that the Yemeni group's new ceasefire with the United States does not extend to Israel, after U.S. President Donald Trump on May 6 declared an end to the U.S. military campaign against the Houthis, Reuters reported May 7.

Yemen: Houthi Spokesperson Says Ceasefire With U.S. Does Not Include Israel

Speaking to reporters, U.S. President Donald Trump said U.S. forces would end their campaign against Yemen's Houthi rebels, who allegedly requested an end to U.S. strikes and pledged to stop attacking civilian ships in the Red Sea, Axios reported on May 6. 

U.S., Yemen: Trump Claims Houthis Have Capitulated, Orders End of Bombing Campaign

Palestinian Territories

Israel conducted airstrikes on Yemen's port of al-Hudaydah using around 20 fighter jets in retaliation for the Houthis' May 4 missile attack on Ben-Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv, Israel, The Wall Street Journal reported on May 5.

Israel, Yemen: Israel Bombs the Houthis Following Ben-Gurion Attack

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom conducted airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen in coordination with the United States for the first time since the Labour Party took control of the U.K. government in July, BBC reported April 30.

U.K., Yemen: U.K. Conducts First Airstrike on Houthis Under New Government

Saudi Arabia

Politics

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to offer Riyadh a $100 billion arms deal during his first second-term visit to Saudi Arabia in mid-May, Reuters reported on April 24. 

U.S., Saudi Arabia: U.S. Set To Offer Saudi Arabia $100B Arms Package

The United States struck Yemen's Ras Isa fuel port on April 17, reportedly killing at least 58 individuals and wounding 126 more, The Guardian reported on April 18.

U.S., Yemen: U.S. Conducts One of Its Deadliest Attacks on the Houthis

United Arab Emirates

The United States continued airstrikes against Yemen's Houthi rebels for the 10th consecutive day, targeting dozens of sites belonging to the group, NBC reported on March 24. 

U.S., Yemen: Widespread U.S. Airstrikes Continue, Targeting Houthi Leadership

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Hamas fired three rockets from southern Gaza toward Tel Aviv, with one intercepted and two landing in open areas, in retaliation for March 18 Israeli airstrikes that reportedly killed over 400 Palestinians, according to Hamas-run Palestinian health authorities, Times of Israel reported March 20. 

Palestinian Territories, Israel: Hamas, Houthis Attack Israel Amid Expanding Israeli Military Operations in Gaza

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A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B aircraft over the North Sea having taken off from RAF Fairford on July 1, 2016 in Gloucestershire, England. The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

The tactic designed to allow intervention without deepening withdrawalism will instead do the opposite, and Washington will face more and more calls to retrench from the Middle East.

Washington Bumps up Against the Limits of Airpower in the Middle East

Assessments

Yemeni soldiers stand guard during a protest against the United States on April 18, 2025 in Sanaa, Yemen. 

As intensified U.S. airstrikes fail to halt Houthi attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping, Washington is increasingly likely to seek on-the-ground Yemeni partners to pressure the militant movement.


In Yemen, the U.S.'s Anti-Houthi Campaign Raises the Specter of a Government Ground Offensive

Mock drones and missiles are displayed at an exhibition on Nov. 13, 2024, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

Recent actions by Iran and its Iraqi proxies appear designed to appease the U.S. as the Trump administration weighs taking aggressive military action against them both.

To Placate the U.S., Iran Temporarily Scales Back Its Regional Proxy Strategy

Oman

A rally on Jan. 24 in Sanaa, the Houthi-controlled capital of Yemen. Should the United States attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Houthi rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations.

Energy

Should the United States also attack Iranian ships and advisers supporting the Yemeni rebel group, Houthi and Iranian retaliation would become likelier to extend beyond U.S. and Israeli targets to include regional oil and gas installations. 

U.S. Strikes on Houthis Risk Embroiling Iran and the Regional Energy Industry

Supporters of Yemen's Houthi movement brandish weapons and chant slogans as they take part in a protest staged in solidarity with the Palestinian people in Gaza on Jan. 17, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

The Houthis' intervention in the Israel-Hamas war has bolstered their military capabilities and domestic influence, which could embolden them to launch renewed offensives in southern Yemen.

What Will Yemen's Houthis Do With Their New-Found Strength?

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The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

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Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Egypt

A smoke plume rises above destroyed buildings in northern Gaza on Jan. 13, 2025.

The truce will improve Israel's ties with Lebanon and Egypt, but eventual violations could reignite regional tensions, as could Israel's intensified counter-insurgency operations in the West Bank.

The Regional Implications of the Gaza Ceasefire

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

A billboard depicting a Houthi military official who was killed during Yemen's civil war overlooks the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa on Jan. 2, 2025. 

When its increased attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen likely fail to deter the militants, Israel will escalate further, potentially spreading the conflict into the Gulf states and restarting the Yemeni civil war.

Israel's Expanding Campaign in Yemen Risks Reigniting the Civil War

An anti-regime fighter tears off a poster depicting Syrian President Bashar al Assad (left) and his brother Maher at the airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. 

With its proxy network weakened, developing nuclear weapons will become a more attractive option for Iran as it tries to rebuild deterrence against the U.S. and Israel.

Assad's Fall in Syria Deals Another Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance

Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.

The Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. 

Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis

Smoke billows from a fire at oil storage tanks in Hodeidah, Yemen, a day after Israeli strikes hit the city’s port on July 21, 2024. 

Resource and geographical constraints will deter Israel from launching a sustained campaign against Houthis in Yemen, which will only risk emboldening the group.

Israel's Airstrikes in Yemen Are Unlikely To Turn Into a Bigger Anti-Houthi Campaign

Yemen is located on the southwest corner of the Arabian Peninsula, across from the Horn of Africa. With Saudi Arabia to the north and Oman to the east, Yemen’s land borders are largely isolated by the Empty Quarter, a vast, uninhabited desert that stretches through the region. Across the Red Sea, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia are linked to Yemen by trade, religion and culture. From its vantage point on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Yemen overlooks one of the world’s biggest trade routes.     Yemen has three geographic regions: the northern and western highlands, anchored by the capital Sanaa; the southern coastal harbors around Aden; and the eastern desert of the Hadramawt. For most of its history, the country’s civilization centered on the highlands, where enough rain falls to sustain agriculture. Because they lack oil and mineral resources, Yemen’s highlands are dependent on these farmlands.     Meanwhile coastal harbor cities like Aden survived off trade and piracy, while the desert interior developed a Bedouin trading and raiding culture that siphoned wealth from the two nearby regions. Dwindling water supplies threaten this balance, however, as skyrocketing populations and shifting agricultural practices strain the demographic sustainability of the highlands.     Nearly 20 million of Yemen’s 26.8 million people live in or near the highlands, which envelop and isolate Sanaa. So for outside powers, ports along the Red Sea trade routes of the south tend to make for better targets than the Yemeni capital. Throughout history, states from Rome to Great Britain have tried to capture Aden and its environs. The vulnerability of the city and its southern surroundings to foreign influence and meddling has repeatedly opened rifts between Yemen’s north and south. During these times of tension, the Hadramawt east often slips from the grasp of the central government.     Yemen’s geographic challenges, then, are threefold. First, the country must ward off foreign encroachment on its exposed southern flank. Second, it must find a way to manage its increasingly scarce resources. And third, Sanaa must keep the Hadramawt &mdash; known for its ability to threaten national unity &mdash; under tight control. 

The Yemen Civil War

SITUATION REPORTS

Yemen: Houthi Spokesperson Says Ceasefire With U.S. Does Not Include Israel

U.S., Yemen: Trump Claims Houthis Have Capitulated, Orders End of Bombing Campaign

Israel, Yemen: Israel Bombs the Houthis Following Ben-Gurion Attack

U.K., Yemen: U.K. Conducts First Airstrike on Houthis Under New Government

U.S., Saudi Arabia: U.S. Set To Offer Saudi Arabia $100B Arms Package

U.S., Yemen: U.S. Conducts One of Its Deadliest Attacks on the Houthis

U.S., Yemen: Widespread U.S. Airstrikes Continue, Targeting Houthi Leadership

Palestinian Territories, Israel: Hamas, Houthis Attack Israel Amid Expanding Israeli Military Operations in Gaza

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