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Military & Security

The Israeli air force conducted airstrikes on the Hezyaz power plant near Sanaa and infrastructure at the ports of al-Hudaydah and Ras Isa in Houthi-controlled Yemen shortly after the United States and the United Kingdom reportedly conducted airstrikes on Houthi underground military infrastructure north of Sanaa, The Times of Israel reported on Jan. 10.

Yemen: Israel Strikes Houthi Targets Shortly After Reported U.S. Coalition Attacks

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Israeli Air Force struck several Houthi-controlled targets in Yemen on Dec. 26, including the Sanaa airport, the al-Dailami Air Base and a power plant in Hodeidah, Al Jazeera reported the same day.

Israel, Yemen: Israel Strikes Houthi Infrastructure in Sanaa, Hodeidah

Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed that Israel would strike Houthi leaders after another Yemeni missile targeted the Tel Aviv area on Dec. 24, the Times of Israel reported the same day.

Israel, Yemen: Israel's Defense Chief Vows Assassination Campaign Against Houthi Leadership

The Israeli military conducted airstrikes against ports and energy targets in Yemen's Houthi rebel-controlled areas, including Salif, Ras Isa, al-Hudaydah and Sanaa, Reuters reported on Dec. 19.

Israel, Yemen: Israel Strikes Ports and Energy Targets in Yemen

Ukraine

Russia

Russia recruited hundreds of Yemeni men, some involuntarily, to fight on the front lines in Ukraine as Moscow searches for new manpower in an attempt to avoid another major military mobilization, the Financial Times reported on Nov. 23.

Russia, Yemen: Deeper Russia-Houthi Ties May Lead to Weapons Transfers

Iran

Russia provided targeting data to members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, who were embedded with the Houthis in Yemen to help attack Western ships in the Red Sea with missiles and drones earlier in 2024, The Wall Street Journal reported on Oct. 24.

Russia, Iran, Yemen: Russia Supplied Targeting Data to Houthis Through Iran's IRGC

The United States used its B-2 stealth bombers to strike underground bunkers holding advanced conventional weapons belonging to Yemen's Houthi rebels in and around Sanaa and Saada on Oct. 16, CNN reported on Oct. 17.

U.S., Yemen: U.S. Uses B-2 Bombers Against Houthi Underground Bunkers

Israeli airstrikes on the Yemeni port of Hodeidah and Ras Issa targeting power plants and a seaport killed at least four individuals and wounded an additional 33, Reuters reported on Sept. 29.

Israel, Yemen: Israel Strikes Hodeidah After Intercepted Houthi Attacks

Assessments

Egypt

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A smoke plume rises above destroyed buildings in northern Gaza on Jan. 13, 2025.

The truce will improve Israel's ties with Lebanon and Egypt, but eventual violations could reignite regional tensions, as could Israel's intensified counter-insurgency operations in the West Bank.

The Regional Implications of the Gaza Ceasefire

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Cyber

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

A billboard depicting a Houthi military official who was killed during Yemen's civil war overlooks the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa on Jan. 2, 2025. 

When its increased attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen likely fail to deter the militants, Israel will escalate further, potentially spreading the conflict into the Gulf states and restarting the Yemeni civil war.

Israel's Expanding Campaign in Yemen Risks Reigniting the Civil War

An anti-regime fighter tears off a poster depicting Syrian President Bashar al Assad (left) and his brother Maher at the airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

With its proxy network weakened, developing nuclear weapons will become a more attractive option for Iran as it tries to rebuild deterrence against the U.S. and Israel.

Assad's Fall in Syria Deals Another Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance

Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.

The Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. 

Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis

Smoke billows from a fire at oil storage tanks in Hodeidah, Yemen, a day after Israeli strikes hit the city’s port on July 21, 2024. 

Resource and geographical constraints will deter Israel from launching a sustained campaign against Houthis in Yemen, which will only risk emboldening the group.

Israel's Airstrikes in Yemen Are Unlikely To Turn Into a Bigger Anti-Houthi Campaign

Columns

On Geopolitics

An Israeli tank Aug. 7, 2024, in southern Israel along the border with the Gaza Strip. Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year. 

Washington may change the regional dynamics substantially before the next Oct. 7; if not, we will likely be marking a second anniversary of regional conflict next year.

Will War in the Middle East Last Another Year?

Ethiopia

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Bahrain

Oman

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

People watch a televised speech of Lebanon's Hezbollah chief Hasan Nasrallah commemorating the seventh-century killing of the Prophet Muhammad's grandson Imam Hussein, in Beirut, Lebanon, on July 17, 2024.

Despite their unified vision, groups within the Iranian-led Axis of Resistance are unlikely to sacrifice their strategic imperatives for one another, leaving them vulnerable to Israeli attacks.

Assessing the Strategic Imperatives of the Iranian-Led 'Axis of Resistance'

An Israeli air force Samson C-130J Super Hercules cargo plane flies over the Israeli coastal city of Netanya toward northern Israel on Aug. 25, 2024, after Israel launched airstrikes targeting Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.

Israel's recent preemptive strike on Hezbollah reflects an increasing willingness to strike Iran's regional proxies -- and potentially even Iran itself -- to interdict their impending attacks, raising the risk of a larger regional war.

As It Awaits Iran's Retaliation, Israel Mulls More Preemptive Strikes

Snapshots

A giant fire erupts at an oil storage facility following Israeli strikes in Yemen's Houthi-held port city of Hodeida on July 20, 2024. 

Geographical and military limitations will discourage Israel from starting a long-term campaign in Yemen, but increased coordination among pro-Iranian militias could escalate the conflict.

Competing Military Goals and Geographical Constraints Limit Israel's Campaign in Yemen

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on April 29 at a Joint Ministerial Meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council-U.S. Strategic Partnership in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Riyadh will continue to progressively advance diplomatic relations with Israel and deepen defense ties with the United States, while maintaining its cautious outreach to Iran.

Riyadh will continue to progressively advance diplomatic relations with Israel and deepen defense ties with the United States, while maintaining its cautious outreach to Iran.

Assessing Saudi Arabia's Foreign Policy During the Israel-Hamas War and Beyond

Yemen is located on the southwest corner of the Arabian Peninsula, across from the Horn of Africa. With Saudi Arabia to the north and Oman to the east, Yemen’s land borders are largely isolated by the Empty Quarter, a vast, uninhabited desert that stretches through the region. Across the Red Sea, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia are linked to Yemen by trade, religion and culture. From its vantage point on the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Yemen overlooks one of the world’s biggest trade routes.     Yemen has three geographic regions: the northern and western highlands, anchored by the capital Sanaa; the southern coastal harbors around Aden; and the eastern desert of the Hadramawt. For most of its history, the country’s civilization centered on the highlands, where enough rain falls to sustain agriculture. Because they lack oil and mineral resources, Yemen’s highlands are dependent on these farmlands.     Meanwhile coastal harbor cities like Aden survived off trade and piracy, while the desert interior developed a Bedouin trading and raiding culture that siphoned wealth from the two nearby regions. Dwindling water supplies threaten this balance, however, as skyrocketing populations and shifting agricultural practices strain the demographic sustainability of the highlands.     Nearly 20 million of Yemen’s 26.8 million people live in or near the highlands, which envelop and isolate Sanaa. So for outside powers, ports along the Red Sea trade routes of the south tend to make for better targets than the Yemeni capital. Throughout history, states from Rome to Great Britain have tried to capture Aden and its environs. The vulnerability of the city and its southern surroundings to foreign influence and meddling has repeatedly opened rifts between Yemen’s north and south. During these times of tension, the Hadramawt east often slips from the grasp of the central government.     Yemen’s geographic challenges, then, are threefold. First, the country must ward off foreign encroachment on its exposed southern flank. Second, it must find a way to manage its increasingly scarce resources. And third, Sanaa must keep the Hadramawt &mdash; known for its ability to threaten national unity &mdash; under tight control. 

The Yemen Civil War

SITUATION REPORTS

Yemen: Israel Strikes Houthi Targets Shortly After Reported U.S. Coalition Attacks

Israel, Yemen: Israel Strikes Houthi Infrastructure in Sanaa, Hodeidah

Israel, Yemen: Israel's Defense Chief Vows Assassination Campaign Against Houthi Leadership

Israel, Yemen: Israel Strikes Ports and Energy Targets in Yemen

Russia, Yemen: Deeper Russia-Houthi Ties May Lead to Weapons Transfers

Russia, Iran, Yemen: Russia Supplied Targeting Data to Houthis Through Iran's IRGC

U.S., Yemen: U.S. Uses B-2 Bombers Against Houthi Underground Bunkers

Israel, Yemen: Israel Strikes Hodeidah After Intercepted Houthi Attacks

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