United States

Iran

Russia

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty that includes cooperation on trade, defense, culture and science, though specific details were not publicized, AP reported on Jan. 17.

Russia, Iran: Russia and Iran Sign Comprehensive Treaty in Moscow

Israel

Israel's Ministry of Defense signed two deals with domestic arms contractor Elbit Systems to develop new raw materials to help supply the military with heavy bombs in a deal worth around $275 million, The Times of Israel reported on Jan. 7.

Israel: Defense Ministry Aims To Produce Heavy Bombs Locally After U.S. Boycott

Cuba

Venezuela

China

North Korea

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The U.S. Department of Justice finalized rules to ban companies from selling sensitive bulk personal data of American citizens to foreign adversarial countries in an effort to combat a range of malicious activities, according to a press release published on Dec. 27. 

U.S.: Government Finalizes Rules Banning Bulk Data Sale to Adversaries

The incoming U.S. Trump administration is considering a spectrum of military options such as moving additional U.S. military assets to the Middle East, supplying additional advanced weapons that Israel could use against Iran's nuclear program, and even preemptive strikes against Iran's nuclear program, The Wall Street Journal reported on Dec. 13.

U.S., Iran: Incoming Trump Administration Considering Military Strikes Against Iran's Nuclear Program

Lebanon

Syria

The Israel Defense Forces said it had withdrawn from Lebanon's town of Khiam along the Israel-Lebanon border near the Golan Heights as part of its November ceasefire with Lebanon's Hezbollah, The Times of Israel reported on Dec. 12.

Israel, Lebanon: IDF Withdraws From Town in Southern Lebanon as Ceasefire Broadly Holds

Syria's army said it was withdrawing from Hama to avoid civilian casualties after Turkey-backed Hayat Tahir al-Sham rebels entered the central city, AP reported on Dec. 5. 

Syria: Key Provincial Capital Falls to Rebels in Another Major Setback for al Assad

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Nigeria

Algeria

Iraq

Kuwait

Libya

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Energy

OPEC+ countries agreed to delay the phase-out of 2.2 million barrels of oil per day of production cuts from Jan. 1, 2025, until April 1 and to phase those cuts out over 18 months instead of the originally planned 12 months, Argus Media reported on Dec. 5. 

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

Niger

France

France's state-owned uranium miner Orano said Nigerien authorities had taken over the operations of its Somair mine, Le Monde reported on Dec. 4.

Niger: France's Orano Lost Operational Control of Somair Mine

Assessments

Europe

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Jordan

Qatar

Tunisia

Turkey

Yemen

Taiwan

Ukraine

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Palestinian Territories

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Global Elections

2024: A Geopolitical Review

India

The Geopolitics of Water

Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Israeli tanks and armored vehicles line up the area outside the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the fence with the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights from the rest of Syria on Dec. 9, 2024.

Israel's efforts to mitigate threats from war-torn Syria will risk triggering domestic and international blowback, and opening the door to a proxy conflict with Turkey.

Israel Expands Its Presence in Post-Assad Syria 

Columns

On Geopolitics

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

An anti-regime fighter tears off a poster depicting Syrian President Bashar al Assad (left) and his brother Maher at the airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

With its proxy network weakened, developing nuclear weapons will become a more attractive option for Iran as it tries to rebuild deterrence against the U.S. and Israel.

Assad's Fall in Syria Deals Another Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance

Snapshots

A military vehicle burns after it was hit by Syrian regime forces Dec. 7 in Syria's Hama governorate. After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

After the regime's fall, competing rebel factions will vie to create a provisional government, a slow process prone to violence as foreign actors try to shape the postwar balance of power.

Syrian Rebels Pushing to Damascus, Regime Facing Imminent Collapse

South Korea

Protesters call for the ouster of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol outside the National Assembly in Seoul on Dec. 6, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Vote in South Korea, Syria's Government Wavers

Rebels patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city on Dec. 6, 2024. 

If and when al Assad's regime collapses, war-torn Syria will fragment into factional territories under a weakened rebel leadership.

What To Watch For as Syria's Government Barrels Toward Collapse

A child tapes a stick holding a Hamas flag during a demonstration in support of Palestinian resistance in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on Jan. 12, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Hamas' impending expulsion from Qatar will force the group to either relocate its Politburo or disperse its senior leaders across multiple countries, either of which would carry challenges.

With Its Welcome Worn Out in Qatar, Hamas Seeks a New Home Base

Fighters loyal to Yemen's Houthi group chant in Sanaa, Yemen, on Sept. 21, 2024, during a military parade marking the anniversary of the Houthis’ 2014 takeover of the capital.

The Houthis' economic vulnerabilities, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' desire to avoid being re-entangled in Yemen's decade-long civil war, will reduce the risk of a major escalation in Yemen. 

Gulf States Work to Avoid Major Escalation With Yemen’s Houthis

Iran sits at the crossroads of the Islamic world. Linking the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central and South Asia, Iran has struggled to balance the benefits and risks of its geographic position.    Iran's core is located in the western Zagros mountain range. From this secure geography, the beginnings of the Persian Empire spread throughout Iran's mountainous topography securing the Alborz, the southern Zagros and much of the Iranian plateau.    Iran's primary geographic challenge has been to secure itself from the many external threats on its borders. Arabs, Mongols and Turks all conquered ancient Persia at various times, prompting Persia to expand its territorial control whenever possible to establish a buffer to protect its core.    At its height, the Persian Empire stretched from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush mountains, bridging modern-day Europe and Asia. Echoes of this former empire can be seen even today, with Iran's support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the al Assad regime in Damascus and the Shiite-led government in Iraq.    Iran has also struggled to unite and control the various language and ethnic groups located within its core territories, a process impeded by the country's difficult terrain. Modern-day Tehran is aided by its large hydrocarbon reserves; Iran boasts the fourth-largest oil reserves and largest natural gas reserves in the world. The 20th century saw British, Russian and American interests competing not only to control Iran's strategic geographic location, but its significant energy reserves as well.    This modern-day reliance on energy revenues has resulted in Iran's focus on securing the Strait of Hormuz and expanding control over the Persian Gulf to secure its core territories from the threat of outside invasion.

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia, Iran: Russia and Iran Sign Comprehensive Treaty in Moscow

Israel: Defense Ministry Aims To Produce Heavy Bombs Locally After U.S. Boycott

U.S.: Government Finalizes Rules Banning Bulk Data Sale to Adversaries

U.S., Iran: Incoming Trump Administration Considering Military Strikes Against Iran's Nuclear Program

Israel, Lebanon: IDF Withdraws From Town in Southern Lebanon as Ceasefire Broadly Holds

Syria: Key Provincial Capital Falls to Rebels in Another Major Setback for al Assad

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

Niger: France's Orano Lost Operational Control of Somair Mine

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