United States

Iran

Israel

Oman

Switzerland

Military & Security

Politics

U.S.-Iran Relations

The United States and Iran held the second round of Omani-mediated indirect nuclear talks in Geneva, Switzerland, focused on limitations on Iran's nuclear program and verification involving international nuclear inspectors, Reuters reported on Feb. 17.

U.S., Iran: U.S. and Iran Hold Second Round of Indirect Nuclear Talks in Geneva

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened for a three-hour meeting on Feb. 11, during which they failed to agree on an approach to Iran and Gaza, according to official statements released by the Israeli Prime Minister's Office and Trump on Truth Social.

U.S., Israel: Trump-Netanyahu Meeting Fails To Yield Alignment on Iran, Gaza

Armenia

Russia

Economics

Energy

Armenia and the United States signed a joint statement on the completion of negotiations on a civil nuclear cooperation agreement during U.S. Vice President JD Vance's visit to Yerevan, Reuters reported on Feb. 9. 

Armenia, U.S.: Washington Deepens Armenia Ties With Nuclear Deal During Vance Visit

As part of the country's ongoing crackdown in the wake of nationwide protests earlier in 2026, Iranian security forces arrested at least four prominent reformist politicians, AP reported on Feb. 9.

Iran: Government Arrests Prominent Reformist Leaders as Crackdown Continues

Indirect discussions between the United States and Iran took place Feb. 6 in Oman, with the two sides agreeing to follow-on talks in Oman, CNN reported.

Iran, U.S.: Indirect Discussions in Oman Conclude, Delegations Agree on More Talks

Iran accepted U.S. demands that talks in Oman on Feb. 6 be direct face-to-face and cover Iran's support of regional armed groups and its missile program, the New York Times reported Feb. 4, citing three Iranian officials and an Arab official. 

U.S., Iran: Tehran Reportedly Agrees To Discuss Missiles, Support for Armed Groups

Saudi Arabia

Saudi and Israeli officials are arriving in Washington the week of Jan. 26 to discuss the potential impacts of and possible de-escalation plans for U.S. President Donald Trump's widely anticipated campaign against Iran, Axios reported on Jan. 29.

U.S., Iran: Coordination Increases as Trump Signals Desire To Reignite Protests in Iran

Iraq

Iraq's Shiite Coordination Framework, or SCF, an umbrella organization of Iranian-aligned Shiite parties, nominated former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to become the new prime minister following the November 2025 elections, Reuters reported on Jan. 25.

Iraq: Shiite Parties Nominate Former PM al-Maliki To Become Prime Minister

Assessments

Lebanon

Yemen

Europe

U.S. Vice President JD Vance's shadow is seen as he speaks during a press conference following a military briefing at the civilian military coordination center on Oct. 21, 2025, in Kiryat Gat, Israel. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Negotiations over a new Israel-U.S. security agreement signal a pivot in the bilateral relationship as Israel increasingly focuses on strengthening its domestic defense industry.

How Israel's Defense Sector Will Evolve Amid the Government's Push for Self-Reliance

Japan

Thailand

Bangladesh

Campaign posters Feb. 6 of candidates running in the upcoming Japanese House of Representatives election, in Inagi, Tokyo prefecture.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Japan Holds Snap Elections, U.S. Weighs Options After Iran Talks

Snapshots

A man walks past a mural painted on the outer walls of the former U.S. embassy in Tehran, Iran, on Feb. 1, 2026.

Despite recent momentum toward restarting talks, a deal will likely remain elusive due to the U.S.'s maximalist demands and Iran's red lines, sustaining the risk of U.S. (and likely Israeli) military action in the coming weeks. 

Can New U.S.-Iran Talks Avert a Greater Conflict?

Colombia

Iranian newspapers one of them (R) with a headline in Persian reading "Iran is ready for a big response," Jan. 27 in Tehran in Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump is considering a range of military options against Iran.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Colombian Presidents Meet, The Threat of U.S. Strikes on Iran

A photo of Israeli banknotes.

While Israel's economy has proven remarkably resilient during the years-long Gaza war with Hamas, persistent security risks and an upcoming election will present new challenges.

How Israel's Economy Will Weather Persistent Political and Security Concerns in 2026

People gather during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 8, 2026. 

The severity of Iran's crackdown on protesters makes it highly likely that Trump will authorize some form of action (e.g., sanctions, cyberattacks or military strikes), with Tehran likely to respond proportionally unless the regime's survival is threatened.

The Risks and Implications of a U.S. Attack Against Iran

A stock image shows the silhouettes of soldiers.

Emboldened by its recent capture of Venezuela's Maduro, the White House will likely seek to kill and potentially abduct more Middle Eastern extremists in the coming year, but pursuing high-profile targets like Iranian leaders will carry significant risks.

Potential Targets for U.S. Assassination and Abduction Operations in the Middle East

Nigeria

Cuba

Mexico

Venezuela

Greenland

China

Taiwan

Norway

Ukraine

India

Pakistan

Cyber

Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

U.S.-China Relations

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Benin

Uganda

Canada

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark. Ukraine security talks and a Gaza peace plan will be in the spotlight at Davos.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Paraguay

Egypt

Morocco

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

South Korea

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.

If effective, the laser air defense system will significantly reduce the cost of intercepting short-range aerial threats and bolster Israel's multilayered protection against aerial attacks.


The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture

Iran sits at the crossroads of the Islamic world. Linking the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central and South Asia, Iran has struggled to balance the benefits and risks of its geographic position.    Iran's core is located in the western Zagros mountain range. From this secure geography, the beginnings of the Persian Empire spread throughout Iran's mountainous topography securing the Alborz, the southern Zagros and much of the Iranian plateau.    Iran's primary geographic challenge has been to secure itself from the many external threats on its borders. Arabs, Mongols and Turks all conquered ancient Persia at various times, prompting Persia to expand its territorial control whenever possible to establish a buffer to protect its core.    At its height, the Persian Empire stretched from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush mountains, bridging modern-day Europe and Asia. Echoes of this former empire can be seen even today, with Iran's support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the al Assad regime in Damascus and the Shiite-led government in Iraq.    Iran has also struggled to unite and control the various language and ethnic groups located within its core territories, a process impeded by the country's difficult terrain. Modern-day Tehran is aided by its large hydrocarbon reserves; Iran boasts the fourth-largest oil reserves and largest natural gas reserves in the world. The 20th century saw British, Russian and American interests competing not only to control Iran's strategic geographic location, but its significant energy reserves as well.    This modern-day reliance on energy revenues has resulted in Iran's focus on securing the Strait of Hormuz and expanding control over the Persian Gulf to secure its core territories from the threat of outside invasion.

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Iran: U.S. and Iran Hold Second Round of Indirect Nuclear Talks in Geneva

U.S., Israel: Trump-Netanyahu Meeting Fails To Yield Alignment on Iran, Gaza

Armenia, U.S.: Washington Deepens Armenia Ties With Nuclear Deal During Vance Visit

Iran: Government Arrests Prominent Reformist Leaders as Crackdown Continues

Iran, U.S.: Indirect Discussions in Oman Conclude, Delegations Agree on More Talks

U.S., Iran: Tehran Reportedly Agrees To Discuss Missiles, Support for Armed Groups

U.S., Iran: Coordination Increases as Trump Signals Desire To Reignite Protests in Iran

Iraq: Shiite Parties Nominate Former PM al-Maliki To Become Prime Minister

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