United States

Iran

Iraq

Politics

Iraq's Shiite Coordination Framework, or SCF, an umbrella organization of Iranian-aligned Shiite parties, nominated former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to become the new prime minister following the November 2025 elections, Reuters reported on Jan. 25.

Iraq: Shiite Parties Nominate Former PM al-Maliki To Become Prime Minister

South Africa

Economics

Military & Security

Military officials did not inform the South African government of Iran's inclusion in the BRICS+ "Will for Peace" naval drills held on Jan. 9-16 before Iranian outlet Tehran Times broke the news in late December 2025, News24 reported on Jan. 21 based on South African government sources.

South Africa: Government Allegedly Left in the Dark Over Iran's Participation in BRICS+ Naval Drills

Cuba

Venezuela

China

Russia

Energy

Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodriguez said in an annual address before the National Assembly that Venezuela is a sovereign nation that has the right to maintain ties with Russia, China, Iran and Cuba, El Pais reported on Jan. 15.

Venezuela: Rodriguez Outlines Challenging Balancing Act in Speech Before National Assembly

U.S.-Iran Relations

U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran would cease executing detained protesters, a key demand of the Trump administration amid threats of military intervention, but the president declined to firmly rule out strikes on Iran, Reuters reported on Jan. 14.

Iran, U.S.: Tensions Lower as Executions in Iran Reportedly Cease, but U.S. Strikes Remain Possible

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met in Washington and released the TRIPP implementation framework outlining plans to grant a U.S.-majority consortium exclusive rights to develop a transit corridor linking Azerbaijan to its Naxcivan exclave through southern Armenia, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 13. 

Armenia, U.S.: TRIPP Framework Puts American Capital at the Heart of South Caucasus Geopolitics

Oman

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Iran has warned regional countries that U.S. bases in the Middle East could be targeted in retaliation for potential U.S. attacks in support of Iranian protesters, Reuters reported Jan. 14. 

U.S., Iran: Tehran Warns of Potential Attacks Against U.S. Bases, U.S. Partially Evacuates

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

India

U.S. President Donald Trump said in a Jan. 13 Truth Social post that any country "doing business" with Iran would face a 25% tariff when doing "any and all business" with the United States.

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

Cyber

On Jan. 13, U.S. President Donald Trump will be briefed on kinetic and non-kinetic options -- including targeted strikes, cyberattacks, information operations and, least escalatory, announcing military movements like carrier deployments -- regarding a response to Iran's ongoing crackdown on protesters, ABC News reported on Jan. 12.

Iran, U.S.: Trump To Be Briefed on Iran Options on Jan. 13

Assessments

Israel

Palestinian Territories

A photo of Israeli banknotes.

While Israel's economy has proven remarkably resilient during the years-long Gaza war with Hamas, persistent security risks and an upcoming election will present new challenges.

How Israel's Economy Will Weather Persistent Political and Security Concerns in 2026

People gather during a protest in Tehran, Iran, on Jan. 8, 2026. 

The severity of Iran's crackdown on protesters makes it highly likely that Trump will authorize some form of action (e.g., sanctions, cyberattacks or military strikes), with Tehran likely to respond proportionally unless the regime's survival is threatened.

The Risks and Implications of a U.S. Attack Against Iran

Lebanon

Yemen

A stock image shows the silhouettes of soldiers.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Emboldened by its recent capture of Venezuela's Maduro, the White House will likely seek to kill and potentially abduct more Middle Eastern extremists in the coming year, but pursuing high-profile targets like Iranian leaders will carry significant risks.

Potential Targets for U.S. Assassination and Abduction Operations in the Middle East

Nigeria

Colombia

Mexico

Greenland

Taiwan

Europe

Norway

Ukraine

Pakistan

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Benin

Uganda

Canada

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark. Ukraine security talks and a Gaza peace plan will be in the spotlight at Davos.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Activists hold Iranian flags in support of the ongoing protests in Iran during a rally in Washington, D.C., on Jan. 3, 2026.

The demonstrations could endure for several more weeks or months before they are ultimately suppressed, opening the door to risky Israeli and/or U.S. military or covert action against Iranian senior leadership amid the turmoil.

Protests in Iran Provide a Window for U.S. and/or Israeli Intervention

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Paraguay

Egypt

Morocco

Syria

Australia

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Japan

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

South Korea

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Israeli air defence systems are activated to intercept Iranian missiles over the Israeli city of Tel Aviv amid a fresh barrage of Iranian rockets on June 16, 2025.

If effective, the laser air defense system will significantly reduce the cost of intercepting short-range aerial threats and bolster Israel's multilayered protection against aerial attacks.


The Role of Iron Beam in Israel's Evolving Defense Architecture

Snapshots

Iraqi riot police walk past a screen displaying a portrait of incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani during celebrations by his supporters following the announcement of preliminary election results in Baghdad on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The Nov. 11 elections produced another fragmented legislature where Iranian-backed parties still have significant influence, portending contentious government formation talks that could impede policymaking and trigger armed clashes.

Iraq Braces for Another Turbulent Government Formation Process

A girl walks past posters and banners depicting political candidates from rival blocs competing for a seat in the Iraqi Council of Representatives in old Mosul, northern Iraq, on Oct. 28, 2025, days before the Nov. 11, 2025, parliamentary elections.

Global Elections

Backed by a coalition that reaches across ethnic and sectarian divides, Iraq's current prime minister will likely maintain his position after the country's upcoming parliamentary elections, portending relative foreign policy continuity.

Assessing Iraq's Political Landscape Ahead of Legislative Elections

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, hold a meeting at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow on Oct.15, 2025. 

Syria's outreach to Russia could lead to diversified economic and security ties, help de-escalate tensions between Russia and Turkey, and eventually facilitate small steps toward Syria's rapprochement with Iran.

Syria-Russia Rapprochement Reinforces Damascus's Non-Confrontationalism

An Israeli military truck carries a tank in southern Israel on the border with the Gaza Strip, on Oct. 14, 2025.

The ceasefire will allow Israel to redirect resources away from Gaza toward other regional threats, particularly Iran, while temporarily easing diplomatic tensions with Egypt and the UAE.

The Regional Implications of the Oct. 8 Gaza Ceasefire

Iran sits at the crossroads of the Islamic world. Linking the Middle East, the Caucasus and Central and South Asia, Iran has struggled to balance the benefits and risks of its geographic position.    Iran's core is located in the western Zagros mountain range. From this secure geography, the beginnings of the Persian Empire spread throughout Iran's mountainous topography securing the Alborz, the southern Zagros and much of the Iranian plateau.    Iran's primary geographic challenge has been to secure itself from the many external threats on its borders. Arabs, Mongols and Turks all conquered ancient Persia at various times, prompting Persia to expand its territorial control whenever possible to establish a buffer to protect its core.    At its height, the Persian Empire stretched from the Eastern Mediterranean to the Hindu Kush mountains, bridging modern-day Europe and Asia. Echoes of this former empire can be seen even today, with Iran's support for Hezbollah in Lebanon, the al Assad regime in Damascus and the Shiite-led government in Iraq.    Iran has also struggled to unite and control the various language and ethnic groups located within its core territories, a process impeded by the country's difficult terrain. Modern-day Tehran is aided by its large hydrocarbon reserves; Iran boasts the fourth-largest oil reserves and largest natural gas reserves in the world. The 20th century saw British, Russian and American interests competing not only to control Iran's strategic geographic location, but its significant energy reserves as well.    This modern-day reliance on energy revenues has resulted in Iran's focus on securing the Strait of Hormuz and expanding control over the Persian Gulf to secure its core territories from the threat of outside invasion.

SITUATION REPORTS

Iraq: Shiite Parties Nominate Former PM al-Maliki To Become Prime Minister

South Africa: Government Allegedly Left in the Dark Over Iran's Participation in BRICS+ Naval Drills

Venezuela: Rodriguez Outlines Challenging Balancing Act in Speech Before National Assembly

Iran, U.S.: Tensions Lower as Executions in Iran Reportedly Cease, but U.S. Strikes Remain Possible

Armenia, U.S.: TRIPP Framework Puts American Capital at the Heart of South Caucasus Geopolitics

U.S., Iran: Tehran Warns of Potential Attacks Against U.S. Bases, U.S. Partially Evacuates

U.S., Iran: Trump Threatens 25% Tariff on Countries Doing Business With Iran

Iran, U.S.: Trump To Be Briefed on Iran Options on Jan. 13

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