Israel

Palestinian Territories

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

Israel's security Cabinet voted to approve the three-phase ceasefire deal with Hamas, with the full Cabinet set to vote on Jan. 18, The Times of Israel reported on Jan. 17. 

Israel, Gaza: Ceasefire To Take Effect on Jan. 19 Pending Full Cabinet Approval

United States

During a confirmation hearing with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, said the incoming administration would reverse Biden-era sanctions on violent Israeli individual settlers and entities, The Times of Israel reported Jan. 16.

U.S., Israel: Trump Nominee Pledges To Lift Sanctions on Violent Israeli Settlers 

Israeli, Arab and U.S. officials said Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas had agreed in principle to a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip, CBS News reported on Jan 14. 

Israel, Gaza: Hamas, Israel Reach Agreement in Principle for First Phase of Ceasefire

Yemen

United Kingdom

The Israeli air force conducted airstrikes on the Hezyaz power plant near Sanaa and infrastructure at the ports of al-Hudaydah and Ras Isa in Houthi-controlled Yemen shortly after the United States and the United Kingdom reportedly conducted airstrikes on Houthi underground military infrastructure north of Sanaa, The Times of Israel reported on Jan. 10.

Yemen: Israel Strikes Houthi Targets Shortly After Reported U.S. Coalition Attacks

Economics

In a study published by the Israel Democracy Institute, researchers found that Israeli ultra-Orthodox Jewish men had stalled in their employment gains over the past decade, with only around 50%-55% employed, compared with 81% of ultra-Orthodox women, The Times of Israel reported on Jan. 9.

Israel: New Data To Fuel Division Over Ultra-Orthodox Economic and Military Integration

Iran

Israel's Ministry of Defense signed two deals with domestic arms contractor Elbit Systems to develop new raw materials to help supply the military with heavy bombs in a deal worth around $275 million, The Times of Israel reported on Jan. 7.

Israel: Defense Ministry Aims To Produce Heavy Bombs Locally After U.S. Boycott

Lebanon

Syria

The Israeli military confirmed that it had been conducting "operational raids" in Syria on Mount Hermon over the past several weeks, The New York Times reported on Jan. 5. 

Israel, Syria: Israel Conducts Operational Raids in Syria

The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics said around 155,000 Palestinians, or about 6% of the total population, have been displaced or killed in the course of the Israel-Hamas war since October 2023, Reuters reported on Jan. 1. 

Gaza, Israel: New Data on Gaza's Sinking Population Likely To Fuel Genocide Claims

Assessments

Egypt

Jordan

Saudi Arabia

A smoke plume rises above destroyed buildings in northern Gaza on Jan. 13, 2025.

The truce will improve Israel's ties with Lebanon and Egypt, but eventual violations could reignite regional tensions, as could Israel's intensified counter-insurgency operations in the West Bank.

The Regional Implications of the Gaza Ceasefire

People celebrate while watching news coverage of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire in Khan Yunis in the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 15, 2025.

While it may de-escalate the current war, the deal does not address all drivers of conflict between Hamas and Israel, nor does it outline a post-war strategy for Gaza, portending a gradual return to violence.

A Ceasefire Eases the Gaza War, but Leaves Embers To Ignite the Next One

China

Europe

Russia

Cyber

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Iraq

Kuwait

Qatar

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Taiwan

Ukraine

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

A billboard depicting a Houthi military official who was killed during Yemen's civil war overlooks the Yemeni capital city of Sanaa on Jan. 2, 2025. 

When its increased attacks on Houthi targets in Yemen likely fail to deter the militants, Israel will escalate further, potentially spreading the conflict into the Gulf states and restarting the Yemeni civil war.

Israel's Expanding Campaign in Yemen Risks Reigniting the Civil War

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Elections

Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

India

The Geopolitics of Water

Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Media

Podcasts

What can Trump's nominees for positions in Middle Eastern diplomacy tell us about his approach to the region?

Essential Geopolitics: U.S.-Middle East Relations Under a Second Trump Term

Israeli tanks and armored vehicles line up the area outside the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the fence with the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights from the rest of Syria on Dec. 9, 2024.

Israel's efforts to mitigate threats from war-torn Syria will risk triggering domestic and international blowback, and opening the door to a proxy conflict with Turkey.

Israel Expands Its Presence in Post-Assad Syria 

Columns

On Geopolitics

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

A fireball erupts from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, on Nov. 25, 2024.

To consolidate its gains, Israel will keep conducting targeted strikes against Hezbollah under the guise of ceasefire enforcement, fueling more tit-for-tat exchanges that could ultimately reignite full-scale hostilities. 

Will the Hezbollah-Israel Truce Collapse?

A child tapes a stick holding a Hamas flag during a demonstration in support of Palestinian resistance in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on Jan. 12, 2024. 

Hamas' impending expulsion from Qatar will force the group to either relocate its Politburo or disperse its senior leaders across multiple countries, either of which would carry challenges.

With Its Welcome Worn Out in Qatar, Hamas Seeks a New Home Base

Israel lives under difficult geopolitical circumstances. A small country with limited resources and surrounded by potentially hostile neighbors, Israel survives by allying with powers that do have the resources to manage the balance of power in the Middle East — namely, the United States. Its geographic position also means that Israel must manage complex relations with its Muslim neighbors by quiet collaboration, by exploiting divisions, and by parlaying its technological and economic advantages into create strategic dependencies. To navigate all the challenges presented by the Middle East, Israel will remain agile in its diplomacy and, when the situation warrants, steadfast in its pre-emptive strikes, its covert activities and its economic relationships.

Israel's Survival Strategy

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTS

Israel, Gaza: Ceasefire To Take Effect on Jan. 19 Pending Full Cabinet Approval

U.S., Israel: Trump Nominee Pledges To Lift Sanctions on Violent Israeli Settlers

Israel, Gaza: Hamas, Israel Reach Agreement in Principle for First Phase of Ceasefire

Yemen: Israel Strikes Houthi Targets Shortly After Reported U.S. Coalition Attacks

Israel: New Data To Fuel Division Over Ultra-Orthodox Economic and Military Integration

Israel: Defense Ministry Aims To Produce Heavy Bombs Locally After U.S. Boycott

Israel, Syria: Israel Conducts Operational Raids in Syria

Gaza, Israel: New Data on Gaza's Sinking Population Likely To Fuel Genocide Claims

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