Turkey

Military & Security

Politics

A spokesperson for Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party, or AKP, said enabling Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to run for a fourth term in the 2028 presidential election was "on the agenda" but depended on Turkish citizens' interest, Reuters reported on Jan. 13.

Turkey: AKP Indicates Push for Erdogan To Run for Reelection in 2028

Sudan

United Arab Emirates

The leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces, or SAF, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan welcomed Turkish proposals to mediate the dispute between Sudan's SAF-led government and the United Arab Emirates, which is widely seen as providing military support to the SAF's rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, Le Monde reported on Jan. 6.

Sudan: Al-Burhan Welcomes Turkey-Led Mediation With UAE  

Economics

Ankara unveiled a $14 billion development plan for nearly 200 projects to improve agricultural and irrigation practices and boost the region's tourism sector to reduce the economic disparity between the Kurdish-majority southeast and the rest of Turkey, Reuters reported Dec. 29. 

Turkey: Ankara Announces $14 Billion Regional Development Plan for Kurdish Southeast

The Turkish Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time in 22 months by 250 basis points, lowering the interest rate from 50% to 47.5%, Hurriyet Daily News reported Dec. 26.

Turkey: Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates for the First Time in Nearly Two Years

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Russia

In an interview with Russian state media, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev dismissed as "political speculation" reports of the establishment of a permanent Turkish military base in Azerbaijan, TASS reported on Dec. 18.

Azerbaijan, Russia: Aliyev Says No Need for Turkish Military Base in Azerbaijan

Syria

The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, or SNA, ended a U.S.-mediated truce with Kurdish militias in Syria that had led to the withdrawal of Kurdish forces from Manbij, Al-Monitor reported on Dec. 17.

Turkey, Syria: Turkish Military Prepares for Military Operations in Syria

Ethiopia

Somalia

Egypt

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Ethiopia and Somalia had agreed on a joint declaration to resolve their bilateral dispute over Ethiopia's maritime port deal with Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland, the Washington Post reported Dec. 11.

Ethiopia, Somalia: Ethiopia And Somalia Agree Joint Declaration to Deescalate Tensions Over Sea Access 

United States

The U.S.-backed Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, withdrew from Deir el-Zour, Syria, as provisional government forces took control of the city, and fighters loyal to the provisional government said they would continue to advance in the countryside against the SDF, Al Jazeera reported on Dec. 11.

Syria, Turkey: SDF Withdraws From Deir el-Zour as Signs of Turkish-Led Offensive Mount

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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Abu Mohammed al-Golani (C), the head of Syria's leading insurgent group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks during a press conference near Syria's northern Bab al Hawa border crossing with Turkey late on March 12, 2024.

Rival Gulf Arab states will pursue divergent goals amid Syria's evolving political transition, raising the likelihood of factionalism and resurging violence in the war-torn country. 

Gulf States' Competing Interests Could Disrupt Syria's Political Transition

Palestinian Territories

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

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Global Elections

Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Media

Podcasts

What can Trump's nominees for positions in Middle Eastern diplomacy tell us about his approach to the region?

Essential Geopolitics: U.S.-Middle East Relations Under a Second Trump Term

Israeli tanks and armored vehicles line up the area outside the Druze village of Majdal Shams on the fence with the buffer zone that separates the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights from the rest of Syria on Dec. 9, 2024.

Israel's efforts to mitigate threats from war-torn Syria will risk triggering domestic and international blowback, and opening the door to a proxy conflict with Turkey.

Israel Expands Its Presence in Post-Assad Syria 

A man carries a Turkish national flag as Turkey-backed Syrian fighters gather along the frontlines opposite Kurdish forces near the town of Dadat in Syria's northern Aleppo province, on July 5, 2022. 

Turkey will seek to exert its influence over Syria's new leaders to prevent Kurdish autonomy, promote Turkish business interests and facilitate the return of refugees.

Turkey Is Poised to Reap the Benefits of a New Order in Syria

An illustration of the Ethiopian and Somali flags.

The countries’ commitment to negotiate maritime access reduces immediate conflict risks and could enable Ethiopia to secure leasing rights at Somali ports, but tensions will likely resurge if the two sides fail to finalize a deal.

Ethiopia and Somalia Crack Open the Door To Compromise on Maritime Access

Columns

On Geopolitics

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

An anti-regime fighter tears off a poster depicting Syrian President Bashar al Assad (left) and his brother Maher at the airport in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Dec. 2, 2024. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

With its proxy network weakened, developing nuclear weapons will become a more attractive option for Iran as it tries to rebuild deterrence against the U.S. and Israel.

Assad's Fall in Syria Deals Another Blow to Iran's Axis of Resistance

South Korea

France

Protesters call for the ouster of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol outside the National Assembly in Seoul on Dec. 6, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Vote in South Korea, Syria's Government Wavers

Rebels patrol the streets of Hama after they captured the central Syrian city on Dec. 6, 2024. 

If and when al Assad's regime collapses, war-torn Syria will fragment into factional territories under a weakened rebel leadership.

What To Watch For as Syria's Government Barrels Toward Collapse

A child tapes a stick holding a Hamas flag during a demonstration in support of Palestinian resistance in the West Bank city of Ramallah, on Jan. 12, 2024. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Hamas' impending expulsion from Qatar will force the group to either relocate its Politburo or disperse its senior leaders across multiple countries, either of which would carry challenges.

With Its Welcome Worn Out in Qatar, Hamas Seeks a New Home Base

<p>The Republic of Turkey straddles Europe and Asia, forming a land bridge that links the Levant, Iran and the Caucasus with Southeastern Europe. In stark contrast to its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, modern Turkey is confined largely to the semi-arid, mountainous terrain of the Anatolian Peninsula and the capital-rich lands surrounding the Sea of Marmara. This low-lying region contains the large cities of Istanbul and Izmir and the two chokepoints linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean &mdash; the Bosporus and the Dardanelles. This area is the core of Turkey&#39;s population and economy. Turkey&rsquo;s geographic challenge is expanding the economic stability and development of this core into the eastern region of the country. Anatolia&rsquo;s rugged geography and mountainous terrain make economic and infrastructure development difficult, but has historically helped to prevent land invasions from the east and south. Modern Turkey is working to integrate this largely rural, poorer hinterland into the political and economic mainstream in an attempt to link its current Islamist government to its neighbors in the broader Middle East. However, significant challenges remain. Turkey has fought a decades-long Kurdish insurgency in its southeastern regions, where the Taurus Mountains and the Eastern Anatolian plateau give sanctuary to Kurdish separatist militants. Turkey&rsquo;s position at the crossroads between East and West provides the country with several geopolitical possibilities. The country is working to serve as a transit state linking the exports of its energy-rich eastern neighbors to consumer markets in Europe. Its location also invites a series of constraints, as reflected by Turkey&rsquo;s position surrounded by Europe&rsquo;s economic decline, Iranian ambitions in Syria and Iraq, and Russian interests in the Caucasus.</p>

Turkey's Resurgence

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

SITUATION REPORTS

Turkey: AKP Indicates Push for Erdogan To Run for Reelection in 2028

Sudan: Al-Burhan Welcomes Turkey-Led Mediation With UAE

Turkey: Ankara Announces $14 Billion Regional Development Plan for Kurdish Southeast

Turkey: Central Bank Cuts Interest Rates for the First Time in Nearly Two Years

Azerbaijan, Russia: Aliyev Says No Need for Turkish Military Base in Azerbaijan

Turkey, Syria: Turkish Military Prepares for Military Operations in Syria

Ethiopia, Somalia: Ethiopia And Somalia Agree Joint Declaration to Deescalate Tensions Over Sea Access

Syria, Turkey: SDF Withdraws From Deir el-Zour as Signs of Turkish-Led Offensive Mount

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