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Politics

Gulf Arab states condemned Israel's June 13 attack on Iranian nuclear and military targets in a series of official statements, Al Jazeera reported on June 13. 

GCC, Israel: GCC Countries Condemn Israeli Attacks on Iran

Angola

Algeria

Iraq

Kazakhstan

Russia

Economics

OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the organization announced in a May 31 communique.

Global: OPEC+ Approves Third Accelerated Production Hike, But Russia-Saudi Tensions May Rise

Brunei Darussalam

Cambodia

China

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Malaysia hosted the inaugural Association of Southeast Asian Nations-Gulf Cooperation Council-China trilateral summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Channel News Asia reported on May 27.

Asia-Pacific, MENA: ASEAN-GCC-China Inaugural Summit Marks Deeper Economic Alignment

Equatorial Guinea

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OPEC+ announced on May 3 that it will raise its collective oil production cap by 411,000 barrels per day in June, an increase from the original production increase of roughly 138,000 barrels per day to which the bloc previously agreed.

Global: OPEC's Production Increase Provides Some Tariff Respite

Turkey

Turkey's Trade Minister Omer Bolat said that Turkey would try to negotiate the 10% tariffs imposed on the country with the U.S. Department of Commerce and Trade and would attend the Turkish-American Conference in D.C. in May, Reuters reported April 4.

Turkey, MENA, U.S.: Turkey Will Seek to Negotiate U.S. Tariffs

The eight OPEC+ countries participating in 2.2 million barrels per days of voluntary oil productions cuts -- Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates -- agreed to continue with their previously announced plans to begin unwinding their voluntary product cuts between April 1, 2025, and September 2026, OPEC said in a statement on March 3.

Global: Eight OPEC+ Members Agree To Phase Out Voluntary Production Cuts Starting in April

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Gabon

OPEC+ countries agreed to delay the phase-out of 2.2 million barrels of oil per day of production cuts from Jan. 1, 2025, until April 1 and to phase those cuts out over 18 months instead of the originally planned 12 months, Argus Media reported on Dec. 5. 

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and other OPEC+ participants will delay the start of their planned unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary oil production cuts from Dec. 1 to the end of December, OPEC announced in a Nov. 3 press release. 

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

Assessments

Global Trade

Over the next decade, Gulf Arab states will increase oil and gas exports to emerging Asian markets, seeking alternatives to the U.S. amid tariff uncertainty. But the region's military and tech ties with the U.S. will remain strong.

Geopolitics of Trade: Gulf Arab States Balance Diversification With Enduring U.S. Ties

Snapshots

Kuwaiti traders follow the stock market activity at the Boursa Kuwait stock exchange building in Kuwait City on April 7, 2025. 

The law will enable external borrowing to finance the country's deficits and Vision 2035 investments, but Kuwait's growing reliance on debt markets to increase capital expenditure could eventually prove problematic. 

After Eight Years of Gridlock, Kuwait Finally Passes a New Debt Law

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

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Brazil

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Mexico

Jordan

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Ethiopia

Sudan

Middle East and North Africa

Egypt

Lebanon

Palestinian Territories

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Population growth, security vacuums, bad governance and climate change will increasingly strain the desert region's already scarce water supplies, raising the risk of social unrest, interstate conflict and violence from non-state actors.

The Geopolitics of Water: In the Middle East, Water Will Increasingly Become a Weapon and Driver of Conflict

Participants stand outside the pavilion of Oman as they attend day nine of the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Dec. 9, 2023. 

The July terrorist attack in Oman will likely spark a regional security crackdown, despite the incident's limited political and economic consequences.

A Rare Terrorist Attack in Oman Portends a Regional Security Crackdown

By dissolving parliament and suspending articles of the constitution, Kuwait's emir is hoping to finally enact overdue economic reforms. But fears of sparking public backlash will still limit the scope of those reforms.

Kuwait's Dissolved Parliament Clears the Way for Stalled Economic Reforms

Morocco

Students from the American University of Beirut (AUB) rally in support of Palestinians outside the main gate of the university in the Lebanese capital on Oct. 9, 2023. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

Israel's likely ground invasion in Gaza will alienate many Muslims in the Middle East, pressuring their governments to respond in support of Palestinians.

Gauging the Regional Response to the Gaza Conflict

Iranian-made satellite carriers (left) and missiles (right) are displayed in front of the Holy Defense Museum in Tehran, Iran, on Sept. 20, 2020.

U.S.-Iran Relations

The integrated air and missile defense system laid out in the proposed DEFEND Act could entice Saudi Arabia to deepen normalization with Israel.

U.S. Lawmakers Unveil a Plan to Shield Middle East Allies From Iranian Aggression

Members of Kuwait’s stateless Bidoon community protest to demand citizenship and other rights in Jahra, northwest of Kuwait City, in December 2011. 

The Saudi Survival Strategy

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Compared with Qatar and the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia will be much slower to naturalize the descendants of desert nomads living within their borders.

What Greater GCC Citizenship Means for the Arab Gulf’s Stateless Residents

A portrait of Lebanese Information Minister George Kordahi is seen on a billboard in Sanaa, Yemen, on Oct. 31, 2021. 

The Yemen Civil War

Iran's Arc of Influence

By alienating wealthy Arab Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, a Lebanese official’s show of support for Iran-backed proxies risks deepening his country’s financial crisis.

A Row Over Yemen Sends Lebanon-Gulf Ties Spiraling

OPEC headquarters on April 4, 2013, in Vienna. OPEC+'s decision to maintain production levels will bolster the idea that oil markets are entering a supercycle, contributing to concerns about rising inflation.

OPEC+'s decision to maintain production levels will bolster the idea that oil markets are entering a supercycle, contributing to concerns about rising inflation.

OPEC+ Stays the Course, Driving up Oil Price, Inflation Expectations

An oil tanker sails on Maracaibo Lake in Maracaibo, Venezuela, on March 15, 2019. OPEC'S relevance will slowly decline over the next two decades as the global transition from fossil fuels accelerates and oil's dominance in the transportation sector is diminished.

OPEC'S relevance will slowly decline over the next two decades as the global transition from fossil fuels accelerates and oil's dominance in the transportation sector is diminished.

As Oil's Importance Fades, So Will OPEC

The emirate of Kuwait is on the northwestern edge of the Persian Gulf, nestled between Iraq and Saudi Arabia and narrowly divided by land from Iran. Iraq's border blocks Kuwait from the fertile river lands of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, leaving the country a hot, waterless desert with no natural year-round rivers or lakes. Kuwait is, however, rich in hydrocarbons beneath its largely sandy desert.    Because of their country's low rainfall and poor soil, Kuwaitis used to live off pearling and trade and were usually dominated by whoever controlled Iraq to the north. That often made Kuwait a borderland of empires, as its settled population interacted with merchants and traders out of Iraq and Iran and the Bedouins who traveled up from Arabia. These interactions left Kuwait's population divided between Bedouins, Sunnis and Shiites.    After World War I broke up the Ottoman Empire, Kuwait achieved independence as a British protectorate. The discovery of hydrocarbons in the 1930s allowed Kuwait to rapidly transform its economy and modernize. But it still faced the challenge of needing access to trade routes and protection from powers in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran. At various times, Kuwait leans on different neighbors to balance them against one another, as it did when it aligned with Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. Most recently, Kuwait has relied on its alliance with the United States to ensure its independence and access to global trade routes via the Strait of Hormuz.      To ensure its security, Kuwait must have a sponsor, whether in the region or beyond it, who sees value in its independence and can guarantee its access to trade. And it must also balance its divided population, whose divisions can pull the country towards different neighbors at different times. 

SITUATION REPORTS

GCC, Israel: GCC Countries Condemn Israeli Attacks on Iran

Global: OPEC+ Approves Third Accelerated Production Hike, But Russia-Saudi Tensions May Rise

Asia-Pacific, MENA: ASEAN-GCC-China Inaugural Summit Marks Deeper Economic Alignment

Global: OPEC's Production Increase Provides Some Tariff Respite

Turkey, MENA, U.S.: Turkey Will Seek to Negotiate U.S. Tariffs

Global: Eight OPEC+ Members Agree To Phase Out Voluntary Production Cuts Starting in April

OPEC+: Members To Delay Boosting Oil Production for Third Time

OPEC+: Unwinding of Voluntary Production Cuts Delayed by One Month

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