Assessments

United States

Iran

Israel

Denmark

France

Italy

Ukraine

Russia

The European Parliament building in 2019 in Strasbourg, France. Parliament is set to hold a plenary vote March 26 on implementing the 2025 EU‑U.S. trade framework agreement.

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Vote on the EU‑U.S. Trade Framework, the Iran Conflict Continues

U.S.-Iran Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

People walk along the corniche area on the occasion of Eid al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan, in Abu Dhabi on March 20, 2026.

Economics

Global Trade

Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will compel Gulf Cooperation Council states to invest in alternative trade routes and more resilient physical infrastructure.

Gulf Arab States, Shaken by Iran War, Plan Economic Pivot

Greenland

Danish Defense Minister and top candidate of Denmark's Venstre party, Troels Lund Poulsen (left), and Danish Prime Minister and top candidate of the Social Democrat Party, Mette Frederiksen (right), attend a debate in Copenhagen on March 15, 2026.

Environment, Science & Technology

The upcoming parliamentary elections could result in three distinct coalitions that would offer varying continuity in domestic economic policy and Copenhagen's approach to U.S. pressure over Greenland.

Denmark's General Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

A farmer sprinkles fertilizer over a crop of cauliflower on the outskirts of Bangalore, India, in November 2020.

The Strait of Hormuz blockade is straining global supplies of nitrogen- and phosphorus-based fertilizers, which could lead to lower crop yields, higher food prices and fiscal strain for agricultural producers if the disruptions persist.

Assessing the Iran War's Impact on Global Fertilizer Supplies

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: March 19, 2026

Malaysia

A man fills up his truck at a Petroleum Sarawak Berhad (Petros) station in Kuching, Malaysia, on June 20, 2025.

While fuel subsidies have so far cushioned the impact, if the Iran-related energy disruptions persist, the government may have to sacrifice economic reforms to preserve political support before the next election.

Malaysia's Ballooning Fuel Subsidy Costs Will Test the Government's Reform Agenda

Japan

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi addresses a news conference at the Prime Minister's office in Tokyo on Feb. 18.

The Japanese prime minister may offer economic and security concessions during her upcoming summit with the U.S. president to avoid direct entanglement in the Iran conflict while preserving the relationship with Washington.

Iran War Heightens Stakes of Key Takaichi-Trump Summit

Europe

Commercial vessels are pictured offshore in Dubai on March 11, 2026. 

A U.S.-led naval mission to protect ships from Iranian attacks would likely begin only after the war's intensity decreases, and even then, it would take weeks to organize and yield only a limited return of maritime traffic through the strait.

The Obstacles Facing the U.S. Plan for Strait of Hormuz Naval Escorts

Mozambique

Rwanda

Rwandan soldiers patrol in Mocimboa da Praia, northern Mozambique, on Aug. 12, 2021. 

Rwanda is unlikely to withdraw all its troops from Cabo Delgado in the short term, but a partial drawdown is possible if the EU doesn't approve fresh funding, which would degrade Mozambique's capacity to counter jihadist militants in the gas-rich region.

Will Rwanda Withdraw Troops From Northern Mozambique?

Lebanon

Smoke plumes rise above a village in southern Lebanon following Israeli airstrikes on March 16, 2026.

Even if it engages in direct talks with Lebanon, Israel is unlikely to de-escalate its military operations in the country without major concessions on border security and Hezbollah's disarmament.

Hezbollah-Israel War Set To Intensify, Despite Lebanon's Diplomatic Push

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

The Geopolitics of Demographics

Social Issues

Demographics may not be destiny, but it does play a major role in questions of national power.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: An Introduction

Latest

While far from deterministic, demographics plays a key role in influencing a country's domestic and international politics, as well as its economic and financial development.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: Politics and Economics

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting in Moscow on the global oil and gas market situation on March 9, 2026.

The current surge in demand for Russian oil will likely be short-lived, but weaker sanctions enforcement and higher energy prices could nonetheless buoy Moscow's capacity to fund its war in Ukraine.

In Twist of Fate, Russia Gets a Boost From Iran-Related Oil Shocks

Snapshots

Opposition supporters celebrate the defeat of a referendum on justice reform March 23 in Rome. The defeat exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

The defeat of a highly politicized judicial reform referendum exposes limits to the Italian government's dominance, and may embolden the fragmented opposition and strain coalition unity.

What a Failed Italian Referendum Means for the Meloni Government

Demonstrators wave Iranian national flags and hold pictures of the country's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, at Enghelab Square in central Tehran on March 9, 2026.

The selection of hard-line cleric Mojtaba Khamenei to succeed his slain father will entrench Tehran's resolve to continue the war and preserve its ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Iran's New Supreme Leader Will Strengthen Hard-Liner Influence

People in Tehran look to the skies from a rooftop amid reports of widespread U.S. and Israeli attacks in Iran on Feb. 28, 2026.

The U.S. and Israel are pushing for regime change in Iran, though their attacks are most likely to yield an even more hostile government, as Iran has likely enacted mechanisms to ensure political continuity. 

What To Watch For Inside Iran Amid U.S. and Israeli Strikes

Iraq

Yemen

A plume of smoke rises following a reported explosion Feb. 28 in Tehran. The joint U.S.-Israel military operations on Feb. 28 against Iran have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation.

The military operations have already escalated into a broader regional confrontation and mark the onset of a sustained, multitheater conflict, but are unlikely on their own to trigger near-term regime collapse in Tehran.

A New U.S. and Israeli Attack on Iran Triggers a Regional Confrontation

Afghanistan

Pakistan

A Taliban security personnel operating an anti-aircraft gun keeps watch for Pakistani airstrikes near the Torkham border crossing between Afghanistan and Pakistan on Feb. 27 in in Nangarhar province, Afghanistan. The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

The ongoing escalation marks a shift into overt interstate conflict, though the most likely near-term trajectory is a sustained cycle of cross-border strikes and retaliation.

Afghan-Pakistan Tensions Erupt Into Conflict

A digital illustration shows energy and power icons set with the EU flag. 

By embedding 'Made in Europe' requirements into public procurement, the upcoming Industrial Accelerator Act represents a fundamental shift in EU economic policy.

The EU's 'Made in Europe' Plan Will Fuel Internal Divisions, Transatlantic Tensions

Iceland

Icelandic flags are seen on a street in Reykjavik.

The prospect of a summer referendum on EU accession reflects a strategic pivot driven by heightened anxieties over transatlantic security.


In Iceland, Security Concerns, Domestic Politics Catalyze Renewed Debate Over EU Membership

Australia

European Union and Australian flags together.

European and Australian negotiators aim to strengthen supply chain resilience and hedge against growing global trade volatility.


The Strategic Logic Behind Revived Australia-EU Free Trade Talks 

Columns

On Geopolitics

A figurine is seen in front of the logo of the U.S. AI company Anthropic during a photo session in Paris, France, on Feb. 13, 2026.

Restricting commercial and federal integration of Anthropic's AI models inadvertently risks accelerating U.S. adversaries’ efforts to catch up with American AI labs by stifling innovation and investment.

Trump Administration's Anthropic Ban Puts U.S. AI Lead at Risk

Somalia

Sudan

Egypt

Libya

Syria

Turkey

A dark earth map of the Middle East with glowing details of cities and human population density areas.

Two blocs are emerging in the Middle East: one focused on preserving existing states and institutions, and the other on creating new ones.

Preservation vs. Fragmentation: Two Paths Toward a New Order in the Middle East

On Security

An F-15 fighter plane takes off from RAF Lakenheath at sunset on Jan. 7, 2026 in Mildenhall, the United Kingdom.

The variety and size of the U.S. military buildup give Trump a breadth of options and, compared with last June, suggest that a wider, longer-lasting campaign is more plausible this time around unless a nuclear deal is reached.

Assessing Trump's Options for Military Action in Iran

Germany

United Kingdom

A digital illustration shows a nuclear launch map of Europe. 

Amid doubts about the U.S. security guarantee, Europe is considering using Franco-British nuclear arms to bolster its strategic autonomy within NATO, though this plan faces significant political and technical challenges.

The European Nuclear Umbrella: A Search for Strategic Autonomy

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attends a press conference at the European Commission's headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Aug. 17, 2025.

Despite its strategic imperative to secure Ukraine's Western alignment, the EU remains unlikely to grant the country full or partial membership anytime soon due to numerous challenges, with the ongoing war being chief among them.

To Keep the Promise of Ukraine's Accession Alive, the EU Mulls Alternative Options

A Syrian flag flutters above crowds gathering in central Hama, Syria, during celebrations on Dec. 5, 2025, marking one year since the fall of former President Bashar al Assad's regime.

The third Syrian state, under interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, will likely emerge as a Turkish-aligned, authoritarian regime that prioritizes internal stability, reconstruction and regional neutrality, as it tries to avoid its predecessors' mistakes and excesses.

The Third Syrian State: Autocracy, Alignment and Al-Sharaa's Unique Neutrality

Poland

The flags of NATO, the EU and Poland are seen next to each other. 

Despite achieving strategic indispensability and significant military power, Poland's political influence in the EU and NATO has lagged, creating a paradox in which it is critical to executing Western strategies but peripheral to decision-making.

Has Poland Missed Its Shot at Becoming a Major EU Power?

China

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Ghana

Ghana signed a new defense agreement with the European Union aimed at strengthening security cooperation and preventing the spread of Islamist militancy from the Sahel into its northern regions, BBC reported on March 24.

Ghana: Accra Signs Defense Pact With EU To Counter Militants in the North

Denmark's general election produced an inconclusive outcome, with neither left- nor right-leaning blocs coming close to securing a parliamentary majority, Reuters reported on March 24.

Denmark: Inconclusive Election Results Leave Centrist Moderates as Kingmakers

Ethiopia

Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, and its allies seized the strategic border town of Kurmuk, located in the southeastern Blue Nile state, Sudan Tribune reported on March 24.

Sudan: SAF Blames Ethiopia for RSF Capture of Strategic Border Town

Nigeria

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, or NUPRC, has cut approval times to revive old oil wells from weeks to hours, Bloomberg reported on March 24, quoting sources familiar with the matter.

Nigeria: Regulator Moves To Fast-Track Revival of Old Oil Wells Amid Iran War

The U.S. Department of Defense is planning to deploy a brigade combat team from the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, The Wall Street Journal reported on March 24.

U.S.: Pentagon To Deploy Brigade Combat Team From 82nd Airborne Division to Middle East

Benin

Benin's ruling party presidential candidate Romuald Wadagni pledged to create new municipal police forces in northern border towns to counter growing jihadist attacks as part of his platform ahead of the April 12 election, Reuters reported on March 23. 

Benin: Presidential Candidate Vows To Create New Police Forces To Fight Jihadists

Kenya

Seychelles

South Africa

Chinese Vice President Han Zheng is conducting an Africa tour through Kenya, South Africa and the Seychelles during which he will meet his local counterparts through March 30, Radio France Internationale reported on March 23.

Africa: Chinese Vice President Tours Kenya, South Africa, Seychelles

Zimbabwe

South African farmers may not press ahead with their winter planting season if crop prices do not rise enough to offset their expected increase in fuel and fertilizer costs linked to the Iran war, Bloomberg reported on March 24. 

South Africa: Farmers Eye Production Cuts Amid Price Hikes for Fuel, Fertilizer

Science & Technology

Photos of prominent Hezbollah leaders are seen at the site of a reported Israeli airstrike which killed 6 members of the same family, on March 19, 2026 in Baalbek, Lebanon.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The trajectory of the war will be increasingly defined by a clash of strategic objectives that makes a quick resolution of the conflict unlikely.


The Impact the Israel-Hezbollah War Will Have on Lebanon

U.S. President Donald Trump, alongside (left to right) Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, speaks to the press following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Jan. 3, 2026.

While Trump routinely portrays himself as unpredictable, his extensive use of U.S. military force abroad over the past year offers insight into the likely direction of his foreign policy for the remainder of his term.


Lessons From Trump’s Use of Force Abroad in His First Year Back in Office

The Afghan Taliban released Dennis Coyle, a U.S. academic the group had detained since January 2025 for unspecified reasons, The New York Times reported on March 24. 

Afghanistan, U.S.: Afghan Taliban Releases Detained U.S. National Amid U.S. Pressure

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine and the United States still needed to finalize an agreement on security guarantees, despite earlier claims that it was ready, Reuters reported on March 24.

Ukraine, U.S.: Security Guarantee Talks Stall as Iran War Diverts U.S. Focus

Media

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

The Geopolitics of Demographics: Politics and Economics

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Ghana: Accra Signs Defense Pact With EU To Counter Militants in the North

Denmark: Inconclusive Election Results Leave Centrist Moderates as Kingmakers

Sudan: SAF Blames Ethiopia for RSF Capture of Strategic Border Town

Nigeria: Regulator Moves To Fast-Track Revival of Old Oil Wells Amid Iran War

U.S.: Pentagon To Deploy Brigade Combat Team From 82nd Airborne Division to Middle East

Benin: Presidential Candidate Vows To Create New Police Forces To Fight Jihadists

Africa: Chinese Vice President Tours Kenya, South Africa, Seychelles

South Africa: Farmers Eye Production Cuts Amid Price Hikes for Fuel, Fertilizer

Afghanistan, U.S.: Afghan Taliban Releases Detained U.S. National Amid U.S. Pressure

Ukraine, U.S.: Security Guarantee Talks Stall as Iran War Diverts U.S. Focus

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