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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides in Nicosia as Cyprus assumed the European Union's rotating presidency, Reuters reported on Jan. 8. 

Ukraine, EU: Zelensky Pushes EU Accession as Security Guarantees Remain Unclear

United States

Moscow warned that any Western troops, bases or military infrastructure in Ukraine would be classified as foreign intervention and treated as legitimate combat targets by the Russian armed forces, the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement on Jan. 8.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Warns Against Western Troops in Ukraine, Ceasefire Talks Progress

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said there was still no clear answer on whether Ukraine's partners would deliver a strong response to renewed Russian aggression after a ceasefire, noting that any security guarantees would require parliamentary approval, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported on Jan. 7.

Ukraine: Zelensky Flags Enforcement Gaps as Talks Turn to Territory and Zaporizhzhia

Ukraine's allies, representing the "Coalition of the Willing," agreed in Paris, France, to extend multilayered international security guarantees as part of a U.S.-brokered peace proposal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, AP reported on Jan. 6.

Ukraine, Europe, U.S.: Security Guarantees for Ukraine Emerge, but Key Details Remain Unresolved

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Kyrylo Budanov, the 39-year-old head of Ukraine's military intelligence service (HUR), as his new chief of staff, filling the post vacated in November by Andriy Yermak after a corruption scandal, Dzerkalo Tyzhnia reported Jan. 2.

Ukraine: Zelensky Names Head of Military Intelligence as New Chief of Staff 

The Kremlin's move to publicize more purported evidence of a Ukrainian attack on Putin's residence comes at a critical point in peace negotiations, reflecting Russia's aim to manipulate the narrative and weaken support for Kyiv. 

Russia: GRU Head Presents U.S. Attache With Data From Alleged Drone Attack on Putin's Residence

Russia's defense ministry released video footage it said showed a downed Ukrainian drone linked to an alleged attempt to strike a presidential residence near Valdai in Russia's Novgorod region, The Wall Street Journal reported Dec. 31.

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Releases Purported Video Evidence of Claimed Attack on Putin's Residence

Russia accused Ukraine of attempting to attack a presidential residence near Valdai in the Novgorod region with long-range drones, an allegation Kyiv denied as fabricated, Reuters reported on Dec. 30.

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Signals Tougher Negotiating Posture After Alleged Drone Attack

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

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As elections reshape political incentives worldwide, 2026 will see major powers recalibrate diplomacy and conflict, raising the risk of fragile deals, regional instability and sudden escalation.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

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A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Columns

On Geopolitics

A NASA satellite image shows the city lights of Europe. 

Global Trade

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2025 Annual Forecast

Snapshots

U.S. President Donald Trump meets with Ukranian President Volodymyr Zelensky at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Palm Beach, Florida, on Dec. 28, 2025.

While the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents have narrowed their differences on a 20-point peace framework, the Kremlin's insistence on full control of the Donbas complicates the prospects of a negotiated deal.

Ukraine Peace Deal Still Elusive Despite Trump-Zelensky Talks

Cambodia

Thailand

A U.S. Marine Corps AV-8B Harrier II on Dec. 15 taxis at Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Ceiba, Puerto Rico.

The Weekly Rundown: French Budget Deadlock, U.S.-Russia Talks in Miami

A container ship arrives Oct. 10 at the Port of Oakland, California. In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

In 2026, political calculations among major global players will significantly shape international affairs.

2026 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

A stock photo shows banknotes of the Russian ruble. 

The European Union using immobilized Russian assets to fund financial support for Ukraine will probably not have major reputational or financial consequences for the eurozone.


Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Unlikely To Majorly Impact the Euro

South Africa

Chile

France

The Ukrainian flag is projected on the facade of Berlaymont, the European Commission headquarters, in Brussels on Nov. 18 to commemorate the Nov. 18, 2024, Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Weekly Rundown: A European Council Decision on Ukraine Financing, South Africa Braces for Commission Findings

Tanzania

Hong Kong SAR, China

Protesters help an injured demonstrator near burning barricades amid clashes in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, on Oct. 29, 2025. 

The Weekly Rundown: Unrest in Tanzania, an EU Summit in Ukraine

Russia's President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by Kremlin economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev and Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov, meets with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner at the Kremlin in Moscow on Dec. 2, 2025.

Fundamental disagreements between Ukraine and Russia over territorial concessions and security guarantees suggest that peace negotiations are unlikely to lead to a comprehensive breakthrough.

Despite U.S. Diplomatic Push, Ukraine Peace Still a Long Way Off

Honduras

India

Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for their bilateral meeting during the 2025 Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit.

The Weekly Rundown: Putin-Modi Meeting, Honduras General Election

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

Ukraine, EU: Zelensky Pushes EU Accession as Security Guarantees Remain Unclear

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Warns Against Western Troops in Ukraine, Ceasefire Talks Progress

Ukraine: Zelensky Flags Enforcement Gaps as Talks Turn to Territory and Zaporizhzhia

Ukraine, Europe, U.S.: Security Guarantees for Ukraine Emerge, but Key Details Remain Unresolved

Ukraine: Zelensky Names Head of Military Intelligence as New Chief of Staff

Russia: GRU Head Presents U.S. Attache With Data From Alleged Drone Attack on Putin's Residence

Russia, Ukraine: Moscow Releases Purported Video Evidence of Claimed Attack on Putin's Residence

Russia, Ukraine: Kremlin Signals Tougher Negotiating Posture After Alleged Drone Attack

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