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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's advisers are developing two sanctions strategies to facilitate an agreement resolving the Russia-Ukraine war, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 16. 

U.S., Russia: Trump's Advisors Prepare Sanctions Strategy for Negotiations With Russia 

United Kingdom

Military & Security

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, where the two leaders signed a "100 Year Partnership" agreement on military, technology and energy cooperation, Reuters reported on Jan. 16. 

Ukraine, U.K.: Starmer Meets With Zelensky, Underscores Support for Ukraine

The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched more than 200 drones and other munitions against military facilities and infrastructure deep inside Russia, making it the largest Ukrainian air attack in terms of the number of drones since the beginning of the war, Agentstvo reported Jan. 14.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Conducts Largest Drone Attack Yet Against Russian Infrastructure, Military Facilities

Incoming U.S. national security adviser Mike Waltz laid out several points of the incoming Trump administration's approach to the Russia-Ukraine war, most notably a request for Ukraine to lower its mobilization age from the current 25 to 18, ABC News reported on Jan. 12.

Ukraine: U.S. National Security Adviser Pushes Ukraine To Lower Mobilization Age

The week from Dec. 30 to Jan. 5 marked Russia's slowest rate of advance in Ukraine since July, while in December, the Russian military halved the rate of its offensive advances in Ukraine compared with the previous month, Agentstvo reported on Jan. 6. 

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Seizes Kurakhove Despite Slowing Rate of Advance

Azerbaijan

Kazakhstan

A Russian air defense system was responsible for the downing of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight J2-8243 on Dec. 25 near the Kazakh city of Aktau, which killed 38 people, Euronews reported Dec. 26, citing unidentified Azerbaijani government sources familiar with a preliminary investigation.

Azerbaijan, Russia: Azerbaijani Sources Claim Russian Air Defenses Downed Civilian Passenger Flight

Finland

Finnish authorities have seized and boarded a Russian oil tanker suspected of intentionally damaging an electricity sea cable connecting Estonia and Finland on Dec. 25, the Financial Times reported Dec. 26.

Europe: Russian Shadow Fleet Suspected of Electricity Cable Cut in Baltic Sea

Slovakia

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Dec. 22, in a visit that had not been announced in advance, the Financial Times reported the same day.

Slovakia, Russia: Slovak PM Meets with Putin in Surprise Visit to Moscow

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Europe

Germany

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025. 

2025 Annual Geopolitical Forecast: An Excerpt

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In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Palestinian Territories

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Global Elections

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags. Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

Social Issues

Trade disruptions, shifting military conflicts and domestic political turbulence will shape global affairs in 2025.

2025 Annual Forecast: A Global Overview

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The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet Nov. 26 to discuss Russia's first use of an experimental ballistic missile on Ukrainian territory, which on Nov. 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed involved a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as "Oreshnik."

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

Snapshots

France

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

Russia and Ukraine flags on a cracked wall with the silhouettes of soldiers.

With likely reduced U.S. support, Russia may push for more territory and pressure Kyiv to negotiate as Moscow welcomes Trump's victory.

How the U.S. Election Will Impact the War in Ukraine

Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election event in the early hours of Nov. 6, 2024.

Trump will place more tariffs on U.S. trade partners and reduce support for Ukraine, but he will largely maintain Biden's approach to the U.S. tech rivalry with China and the Middle East conflict.

Trump's Win Will Ripple Across the World

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Russia: Trump's Advisors Prepare Sanctions Strategy for Negotiations With Russia

Ukraine, U.K.: Starmer Meets With Zelensky, Underscores Support for Ukraine

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Conducts Largest Drone Attack Yet Against Russian Infrastructure, Military Facilities

Ukraine: U.S. National Security Adviser Pushes Ukraine To Lower Mobilization Age

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Seizes Kurakhove Despite Slowing Rate of Advance

Azerbaijan, Russia: Azerbaijani Sources Claim Russian Air Defenses Downed Civilian Passenger Flight

Europe: Russian Shadow Fleet Suspected of Electricity Cable Cut in Baltic Sea

Slovakia, Russia: Slovak PM Meets with Putin in Surprise Visit to Moscow

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