France

Economics

Politics

French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu pledged not to invoke Article 49.3 of the constitution, a mechanism that allows the government to adopt legislation without parliamentary approval, to pass the 2026 budget, Le Figaro reported on Oct. 3.

France: Prime Minister Rules Out Bypassing Parliament in Passing 2026 Budget

China

India

India's foreign ministry announced that direct flights between selected cities in India and China will resume this month, ending a suspension that lasted over five years, Reuters reported Oct. 2.

India, China: Countries To Resume Direct Flights After Five-Year Suspension

Military & Security

A new wave of strikes and demonstrations broke out across France on Oct. 2 in response to planned spending cuts in the government's 2026 budget, France24 reported the same day.

France: Budget Cuts Spark New Wave of Nationwide Strikes and Demonstrations

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Italy

Israel's navy intercepted 40 of the 47 ships of the so-called Global Sumud Flotilla and prepared to deport hundreds of the activists onboard, who were attempting to bring aid to Palestinians in Gaza, Reuters reported on Oct. 2.

Israel, Gaza: Aid Flotilla Intercepted, Italian Unions Call Solidarity Strike

Colombia

Colombian President Gustavo Petro ended a free trade agreement with Israel and expelled all Israeli diplomats from Bogota, El Pais reported on Oct. 1. 

Colombia, Israel: Colombia Ends FTA and Breaks Diplomatic Ties With Israel

Malaysia

Malaysia's sovereign wealth fund Khazanah Nasional and Chinese entities are in early talks for a potential rare earth project that would see China build a rare earth refinery in the Southeast Asian country and would include developing some of Malaysia's rare earth reserves, Reuters reported on Oct. 2.

Malaysia, China: Governments Discuss Potential Rare Earth Refinery Project 

United States

U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue held a closed-door meeting with U.S. lawmakers in which he offered no potential method or timeline to revive Chinese agriculture purchases, including of U.S. soybeans, Bloomberg reported Sept. 30.

China, U.S.: Trade Tensions To Deepen in Winter Over Agriculture Purchases

U.S.-China Relations

Taiwan

Environment, Science & Technology

Taiwanese Vice Premier Cheng Li-chiun on Oct. 1 rejected a recent request by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick for Taiwan to move to the United States at least 50% of its production capacity for the semiconductor chips it sells to the United States, saying that the issue ''was not discussed in this round of negotiation, and we will not agree to such a condition,'' Bloomberg reported.

Taiwan, U.S.: Taipei Rejects Washington's Pitch To Onshore More Chip Capacity 

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant economics analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant economics analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

Beyond Quantitative Easing

The New Silk Road

The Fate of the Eurozone

South America: Split Decisions on Trade

Banking

Commodities: A Cautionary Tale

Social Issues

European Disintegration

Russia's Internal Struggle

China in Transition

A Japanese Awakening

East African Integration

Assessments

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

Persistent conflict and armed group control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will sustain significant legal, financial and reputational pressures on companies sourcing critical minerals from the region for the foreseeable future.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Due Diligence and Congo's Critical Minerals

Japan

The candidates running in the leadership election of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party -- (from left to right) Takayuki Kobayashi, Toshimitsu Motegi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi -- pose after delivering speeches at the kick-off of the campaign in Tokyo on Sept. 22, 2025. 

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's Oct. 4 vote for party president and therefore prime minister will influence the trajectory of Japan's fiscal policy and foreign relations.

Japan's LDP Leadership Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Media

Forecast Webcast

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Iran

Russia

The U.N. Security Council holds a meeting on Iran at the U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, on Sept. 19, 2025. 

Energy

The increased isolation will make Iran more reliant on China and Russia, while the added economic strain could fuel domestic protests and empower Iranian hard-liners calling for more aggressive action against the West.

U.N. Sanctions Snapback: What's Next for Iran?

U.S.-Iran Relations

A Polish-made FlyEye V3.0 drone is displayed during the Iron Defender-25 media day on Sept. 18, 2025, in Nowa Deba, Poland. 

European efforts to fast-track a sophisticated anti-drone system will unlock major contracts for defense firms, but the vast scale of the project will leave Europe exposed to Russian provocations for years.

EU 'Drone Wall' Plans Will Take Years To Materialize, Leaving Continent Vulnerable in the Meantime

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Denmark

Ukraine

Moldova

Representatives are pictured ahead of a working session during the informal EU foreign ministers' meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark, on Aug. 30, 2025.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: EU Leaders Meet in Denmark, Moldova Elects a New Parliament

Cyber

While countries will likely increasingly pursue trade deals with digital clauses, the slow pace of regulatory development, coupled with a global tendency toward protectionism, will impede the push toward building out more streamlined digital economy agreements.

The Geopolitics of Trade: The Role of Digital Trade in Modern Free Trade Agreements

Turkey

This aerial photograph shows dry areas near the Alacati Kutlu Aktas Dam in Izmir, Turkey, on July 30, 2025. 

The absence of a national water strategy leaves local authorities and businesses exposed to the mounting pressures of climate change, inefficient agricultural practices and population growth.

Water Scarcity Likely to Worsen With Climate Change, Deepening Turkey's Economic Challenges

Brazil

A digital illustration of the Brazilian flag with economic and financial indicators. 

The current administration's focus on boosting growth through public expenditure is delaying necessary fiscal consolidation, setting the stage for more difficult and potentially drastic economic adjustments after elections in 2026.

Brazil Faces an Inevitable Fiscal Reckoning

An H1B visa (for specialty workers) stamp is seen in a passport.

The sudden implementation of a $100,000 fee for H-1B visas will disproportionately harm smaller companies and universities and weigh on the U.S. economy.

The H-1B Fee Will Undermine U.S. Innovation and Competitiveness

Snapshots

Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng arrives for trade talks with US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent at the foreign ministry in Madrid on Sept. 14, 2025.

A Trump-Xi phone call and a fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks have yielded few concrete results, showing that negotiations on trade and TikTok will remain slow-going.

Despite Trump-Xi Phone Call, U.S.-China Trade Talks Struggle To Gain Traction

Economics

SITUATION REPORTS

France: Prime Minister Rules Out Bypassing Parliament in Passing 2026 Budget

India, China: Countries To Resume Direct Flights After Five-Year Suspension

France: Budget Cuts Spark New Wave of Nationwide Strikes and Demonstrations

Israel, Gaza: Aid Flotilla Intercepted, Italian Unions Call Solidarity Strike

Colombia, Israel: Colombia Ends FTA and Breaks Diplomatic Ties With Israel

Malaysia, China: Governments Discuss Potential Rare Earth Refinery Project

China, U.S.: Trade Tensions To Deepen in Winter Over Agriculture Purchases

Taiwan, U.S.: Taipei Rejects Washington's Pitch To Onshore More Chip Capacity

Forecasts

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