Europe

Belgium

Ukraine

Russia

Economics

Politics

EU leaders failed to agree on a 140 billion euro ($162 billion) loan to Ukraine backed by roughly 190 billion euros in frozen Russian state assets during a summit in Brussels, following Belgian objections, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.

EU: Belgian Objections Delay EU Decision on Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Loan

Turkey

A Turkish court threw out a contentious court case that alleged there were procedural irregularities during the 2023 party congress of the main opposition party, the Republican People's Party, or CHP, during which the party's leader Ozgur Ozel was elected, Reuters reported on Oct. 24. 

Turkey: Turkish Court Throws Out Case To Oust Opposition Leader

Canada

United States

U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a Truth Social post late on Oct. 23 that he was ending all trade talks with Canada due to a video ad paid for by the province of Ontario and running in U.S. markets featuring former U.S. President Ronald Reagan criticising tariffs.

U.S., Canada: Trump Cancels Trade Talks With Canada Due to Anti-Tariff Ad

China

Military & Security

At China's fourth plenum from Oct. 20-23, Beijing appointed Central Military Commission (CMC) member Zhang Shengmin as the new CMC vice chair, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 23.

China: Party Frames Purged Military Generals as Challengers of Top Leaders

Haiti

Haitian electoral council president Jacques Desrosiers said on Oct. 22 that Haiti will not be able to hold a general election before the end of the transitional presidential council's mandate on Feb. 7, 2026, Reuters reported the same day.

Haiti: Government Confirms Elections Will Not Occur Before February Deadline

A communique summarizing the proceedings of China's Oct. 20-23 fourth plenum pledged to "seek progress while maintaining stability," expand domestic demand, stabilize employment and uphold manufacturing as the foundational "real economy."

China: Plenum Charts Steady Economic Plan, Trade Deterrence, Internal Security

Mali

Malian junta leader Gen. Assimi Goita dismissed several senior military officers for underperformance amid an economic blockade imposed by al Qaeda affiliate Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has caused a severe fuel shortage, Jeune Afrique reported on Oct. 23.

Mali: Worsening Jihadist Insurgency Exposes Divisions in Junta, Leading to Dismissal of Senior Officers

Indonesia

The Indonesian military has seized roughly 3.7 million hectares of private palm oil plantations and around 30% of national acreage, transferring nearly half to the new state-run agency Agrinas Palma Nusantara, Reuters reported on Oct. 23.

Indonesia: Militarization Deepens With Palm Oil Plantation Seizures

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant politics analyses.

Below are our latest and most relevant politics analyses.

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

The Post-Apartheid Era Ends

Venezuela's Unraveling

The Saudi Survival Strategy

The Kurdish Struggle

Israel's Survival Strategy

Turkey's Resurgence

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

Brexit

Old Leaders in a New Africa

The U.S. and the Balance of Power

The Pulse of Political Islam

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Russia's Internal Struggle

China in Transition

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Snapshots

Cyprus

A massive flag of the self-proclaimed Turkish Republic of North Cyprus is seen on Dec. 28, 2023, in Nicosia, Cyprus.

Attempts by Turkey to coerce Northern Cyprus economically could inadvertently strengthen President Tufan Erhurman's support and his drive for federalization with the internationally recognized south.

Turkey Will Pressure New Northern Cypriot President To Abandon Federalization Talks

Assessments

Kenya

Kenyan forces stand next to the coffin of former Prime Minister Raila Odinga during a funeral mass at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga University of Science and Technology on October 19, 2025 in Bondo, Kenya.

Social Issues

The death of veteran opposition leader Raila Odinga creates a significant power vacuum, fundamentally altering the political calculations ahead of the 2027 elections.


What Raila Odinga's Death Means for Kenyan Politics

Netherlands

A photograph taken on Oct. 10, 2025, shows Dutch election posters ahead of the Netherlands' Oct. 29 elections. 

Political fragmentation points toward complex negotiations and an ideologically unstable coalition, most likely led by either centrists or the far right.

Netherlands Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Israel

Syria

Syria's interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa (right) meets with U.S. envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, at the presidential palace in Damascus on July 9, 2025. 

The U.S. will leverage permanent sanctions relief to pressure Syria to finalize a security pact with Israel, but the Kurds will resist integrating with President Ahmad al-Sharaa's government. 

U.S. Engagement With Syria Will Promote Stability, but Kurdish Integration Will Continue To Lag

Argentina

Argentina's flag flutters at the Congress.

A weak result for the government is likely to trigger a significant peso devaluation and heightened political instability, effectively stalling the administration's pro-business legislative agenda.


The Stakes for Javier Milei in Argentina's Midterm Elections

The Geopolitics of Trade

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Trade

The recalibration of the European Union's sustainability framework will ease near-term compliance burdens and costs for businesses but preserve long-term uncertainty.

The Geopolitics of Trade: EU Steps Back From Ambitious Environmental Policies

Bangladesh

Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Australia

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (left) and U.S. President Donald Trump speak to reporters during a bilateral meeting in the Cabinet Room of the White House on Oct. 20, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump and Albanese agreed to tighten defense and supply chain integration as a way to reduce their countries' reliance on China, but industrial bottlenecks mean implementation will be slow.

U.S.-Australia Leadership Summit Yields Critical Minerals Pact, AUKUS Reaffirmation

Japan

South Korea

Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi speaks during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Oct. 21, 2025.

Sanae Takaichi's appointment as prime minister will reduce short-term political instability in Japan and strengthen U.S. ties, but her conservative government will struggle to recover domestic support and could alienate neighboring countries.

New Premier Takaichi a Quick Fix for Japan's Long-Term Political Problems

Tanzania

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan of the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party reacts on stage during a rally in Dar es Salaam on Aug. 28, 2025, to officially launch the CCM's campaign ahead of the Tanzanian general election. 

Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan is highly likely to be reelected in the Oct. 29 ballot, which is unlikely to turn violent but could portend wider governance challenges in the medium term.

Previewing Tanzania's General Elections

Venezuela

A poster displaying a photo of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is seen as members of the Bolivarian Armed Forces take part in a military exercise in Caracas on Sept. 20, 2025. 

The U.S. will most likely conduct kinetic attacks on cartel sites in Venezuela over the next three to six months. Other scenarios, ranging from a negotiated settlement to a decapitation strike on Maduro, are comparatively less likely.

U.S. Confrontation With Venezuela: Potential Scenarios

Iran

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syria's interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, hold a meeting at the Grand Kremlin Palace in Moscow on Oct.15, 2025. 

Syria's outreach to Russia could lead to diversified economic and security ties, help de-escalate tensions between Russia and Turkey, and eventually facilitate small steps toward Syria's rapprochement with Iran.

Syria-Russia Reapproachment Reinforces Damascus's Non-Confrontationalism

Politics

SITUATION REPORTS

EU: Belgian Objections Delay EU Decision on Using Frozen Russian Assets To Fund Ukraine Loan

Turkey: Turkish Court Throws Out Case To Oust Opposition Leader

U.S., Canada: Trump Cancels Trade Talks With Canada Due to Anti-Tariff Ad

China: Party Frames Purged Military Generals as Challengers of Top Leaders

Haiti: Government Confirms Elections Will Not Occur Before February Deadline

China: Plenum Charts Steady Economic Plan, Trade Deterrence, Internal Security

Mali: Worsening Jihadist Insurgency Exposes Divisions in Junta, Leading to Dismissal of Senior Officers

Indonesia: Militarization Deepens With Palm Oil Plantation Seizures

Forecasts

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