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Politics

How have Gulf Arab states' positions on the Israel-Iran conflict evolved?

Essential Geopolitics: The Future of Gulf-Iranian Relations

Assessments

South Africa

United States

China

Japan

Philippines

 The European Union and China will hold a high-level leaders' summit July 24 in Beijing, marking the 50th anniversary of Chinese-EU diplomatic relations.

Economics

Military & Security

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An EU-China Summit, South Africa's Budget Vote

U.S.-China Relations

What are the key implications of the possible election outcomes?

Essential Geopolitics: Japan's Upper House Parliament Elections

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Indonesia

Containers are unloaded from a ship at a terminal of Tanjung Priok Port, the main seaport in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Jan. 24, 2025. 

Global Trade

In exchange for a lower U.S. tariff rate, Indonesia accepted significant concessions, including purchasing commitments and regulatory changes, that risk limiting its long-term autonomy and industrial policy goals.

To Avoid Steeper Tariffs, Indonesia Reaches High-Stakes Trade Deal With the U.S.

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: July 17, 2025

Kenya

A demonstrator holds a Kenyan flag on a street in Nairobi, Kenya, during a pro-democracy protest on July 7, 2025. 

Growing anger over Ruto's economic policies and crackdown on dissent will hinder his efforts to reduce Kenya's fiscal deficit and portend recurring bouts of violent and disruptive protests.

No End in Sight to Kenya's Cycle of Deadly Protests

Columns

On Geopolitics

Turkey

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

Asia-Pacific

Russia

Diplomats attend the 32nd Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Regional Forum during the 58th ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Kuala Lumpur on July 11, 2025. 

Chinese, Russian and U.S. participation in the summit shows that the Southeast Asian bloc will remain a key venue for diplomatic hedging and potential great power friction in the years ahead.

ASEAN Meeting Provides an Arena for Multipolar Competition

Iraq

The sun sets behind electrical grids in the southern Iraqi city of Nasiriyah on Jan. 3, 2021. 

Energy

Power outages will likely worsen this summer amid Iraq's inability to meet surging demand and reliance on unreliable Iranian gas supplies, raising the risk of larger and potentially more violent protests.

Iraq's Worsening Electricity Crisis Risks Fueling Bigger Protests

Bangladesh

The entrance to the International Monetary Fund headquarters is seen in Washington, D.C.

While Bangladesh is making progress in its IMF program, risks persist, including political uncertainty, low foreign exchange reserves and high U.S. tariffs on its vital garment sector.

Bangladesh's Economic Outlook: Progress and Persistent Challenges

Cameroon

Cameroon President Paul Biya (L) and his wife Chantal Biya react during a parade marking the 51st celebration of Unity Day in Yaounde on May 20, 2023.

Cracks in the ruling coalition risk fueling unrest and political instability as 92-year-old President Biya seeks an eighth term in the October election. 

Amid Growing Defections, Cameroon's Aging President Doubles Down With a Reelection Bid

Latest

Europe

Flags of EU countries are seen outside the European Parliament building in Brussels, Belgium, on April 5, 2025.

The proposed budget prioritizes competitiveness, defense and strategic autonomy, but it will face significant internal resistance regarding revenue sources, spending cuts and greater centralization.

Reviewing the 2028-2034 EU Budget: New Priorities and Anticipated Pushback

Euro banknotes lie atop U.S. dollar banknotes.

The dollar's depreciation against the euro will likely persist due to U.S. trade and fiscal policy uncertainty, which will hurt European exports but also reduce the risk of destabilizing U.S. financial policies.

Making Sense of Dollar Weakness and Euro Strength

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba addresses the media at the vote counting center in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) headquarters in Tokyo on July 20, 2025.

Prime Minister Ishiba's days are likely numbered following his party's poor electoral performance, which will worsen policy gridlock and potentially weaken Tokyo's position in trade talks with Washington.

LDP's Defeat in Japan's Upper House Elections Will Stoke Political Instability

Ukraine

A Ukrainian soldier works on an AN/TWQ-1 Avenger anti-aircraft missile system on Nov. 28, 2023, in Kyiv, Ukraine. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Despite Trump's impatience with Russia's failure to de-escalate in Ukraine, the White House is highly unlikely to dramatically ramp up pressure in a way that significantly alters the Kremlin's calculus.

What Trump's Growing Frustration With Russia Means for U.S. Policy

France

United Kingdom

U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer (L) and French President Emmanuel Macron hold a press conference on July 10, 2025, in London.

The series of agreements will deepen cooperation between Europe's two nuclear powers at a time of strategic flux and institutional fragmentation across the Continent.

New U.K.-France Defense Deals Mark a Step Toward a European Nuclear Deterrent

Lithuania

Germany

Poland

A newly installed sign pointing to Schengen transfer flights is pictured next to EU and Romanian flags on March 31, 2024. 

Poland's move to reimpose border checks to curb irregular migration from Germany and Lithuania highlights a greater trend that risks entrenching uncertainty for businesses and travelers in the EU's passport-free area.

New Polish Border Controls Bring Europe's Schengen Area Back Into Question

President Donald Trump bangs a gavel after signing a bill into law extending his 2017 tax cuts on July 4 in Washington.

The measure will prevent a sharp increase in income taxes that would shock the economy, but add to the already high U.S. government debt burden.

The Consequences of Extending Trump's 2017 Tax Cuts

Syria

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021. 

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Lebanon

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei addresses the nation in a state television broadcast on June 18, 2025, in Tehran, Iran. 

While Israel's airstrikes appear aimed at destabilizing the country, they are alone unlikely to collapse the Islamic Republic, as Iranian leaders would probably make significant concessions to ensure the regime's survival rather than let it fall.

Assessing the Potential for Regime Change in Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

Palestinian Territories

An Israeli tank rolls along the fence on the border with the Gaza Strip on June 4, 2025. 

Uncertainty regarding who will govern post-war Gaza and fund its reconstruction increases the likelihood of a prolonged Israeli occupation that would empower Israel's far-right to push for annexation and more extensive population displacement.

Is Gaza Destined for Another Israeli Occupation?

U.S. President Donald Trump (right) interacts with Oman Deputy Prime Minister Sayyid Asaad (second from right) as they prepare to pose for photos with leaders during the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Leaders' Summit in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 14, 2025.

Despite Trump's recent sharp words on his predecessor's "forever wars," U.S. trade and energy interests will keep him engaged in the region, though in ways that rely more on economic and diplomatic leverage, as opposed to military campaigns.

Is the Era of U.S. Interventionism in the Middle East Over?

A digital illustration of a Chinese flag.

The apparent ineffectiveness of consumer subsidies in raising retail sales, paired with the government's continued resistance to stimulus, suggests that China's post-COVID consumer activity will remain depressed for the foreseeable future.

Gauging the Success of China's Consumer Subsidies Program, One Year Later

Cyber

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Threat actors are actively exploiting a recently discovered zero-day vulnerability targeting on-premises Microsoft SharePoint servers, exposing thousands of public and private sector entities globally, a Microsoft advisory warned on July 19.

U.S.: Microsoft SharePoint Vulnerability Exposes Thousands of Entities

Vietnam

The Vietnamese Communist Party formally disciplined former national leaders, including two former presidents and a former National Assembly chair, as well as a former health minister and former deputy prime minister, removing all from Party posts, Nikkei Asia reported on July 21.

Vietnam: Further Purges, Power Consolidation Ahead of 2026 National Party Congress

China and Vietnam will conduct their first-ever joint army training in China's Guangxi province in late July, focusing on coordinated border patrol operations, according to a statement from China's Ministry of Defense on July 19.

China, Vietnam: First-Ever Army Drill Points to Tactical Rapprochement, Strategic Hedge

The United Kingdom's government is "seeking a way out" of its ongoing clash with the U.S. Trump administration over London's January notice to Apple ordering it to create a backdoor to access content uploaded to iCloud from any Apple user worldwide, the Financial Times reported on July 20.

U.K., U.S.: London May Reverse Demand for Apple To Break End-to-End iCloud Encryption

The European Union will require the United Kingdom to provide compensation for a percentage of the value of any arms bought from British companies under the bloc's new 150 billion euro ($175 billion) Security Action for Europe, or SAFE, project, the Financial Times reported on July 21.

U.K., EU: Brussels To Demand Compensation From London Under SAFE Defense Spending Program

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group signed a Qatar-mediated declaration of principles in which both sides pledged to sign a peace deal by Aug. 18, Reuters reported on July 19.

Congo: Government and M23 Pledge To Sign Peace Deal by Aug. 18 

Turkey will not renew the 1973 Iraq-Turkey oil pipeline agreement, and the agreement will be "terminated" due to underutilization on July 27, 2026, according to a presidential decree published in Turkey's official gazette on July 21.

Turkey, Iraq: Turkey To Terminate Iraq-Turkey Oil Pipeline Agreement in July 2026

Australia

U.S. President Donald Trump on April 24 in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington. In an interview July 10, U.S. President Donald Trump suggested he would "have a major statement to make on Russia on Monday," perhaps representing a shift in his administration's policy.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Speaks on Ukraine, Sweeping EU Budget Reform

A collapsed water tank painted with the Lebanese flag is seen in the ruins of a village in southern Lebanon, located near the border with Israel, on Jan. 7, 2025.

Ahead of Lebanon's 2026 election, Hezbollah will try to portray itself as a nationalist resistance movement rather than an Iranian proxy, but the risk of renewed conflict with Israel will persist unless the group disarms. 

To Ease Pressure to Disarm, Hezbollah Pursues a Rebrand 

Russian President Vladimir Putin on May 18 at the Congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The increasing costs of the war in Ukraine will increase Moscow's incentive to end it, but only in the medium to long term.

The Role of Economics in Russia's War Strategy

Visitors walk down the inclined shaft at Steenkampskraal rare-earth mine on July 29, 2019, about 80 kilometers (about 50 miles) from Vanrhynsdorp, a town in Western Cape province, South Africa.

U.S.-China trade tensions are increasing the risk of supply chain disruptions for critical raw materials, but companies can take steps to mitigate this danger.

Corporate America Comes to Grips With Supply Chain Risks to Critical Raw Materials

Cambodia

Thailand

A landmine near the disputed Chong Bok border area injured three Thai soldiers -- one severely -- with Thailand blaming Cambodia for planting the mines and issuing a formal condemnation, Channel News Asia reported July 20.

Thailand, Cambodia: Landmine Incident Dashes Chances of Deescalation

The Israel Defense Forces said it would soon begin ground operations in central Gaza's Deir al-Balah town for the first time since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in 2023, despite concerns about endangering potential Israeli hostages held there, The Times of Israel reported on July 20.

Israel, Gaza: IDF Pushes Into Central Gaza as Government Slow-Walks Formal Occupation

The third meeting between Russia and Ukraine will occur "at the end of this week," Russia's TASS agency reported on July 21, citing an undisclosed source. 

Russia, Ukraine: Third Round of Negotiations Expected the Week of July 21

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

North Korea

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

LDP's Defeat in Japan's Upper House Elections Will Stoke Political Instability

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: Microsoft SharePoint Vulnerability Exposes Thousands of Entities

Vietnam: Further Purges, Power Consolidation Ahead of 2026 National Party Congress

China, Vietnam: First-Ever Army Drill Points to Tactical Rapprochement, Strategic Hedge

U.K., U.S.: London May Reverse Demand for Apple To Break End-to-End iCloud Encryption

U.K., EU: Brussels To Demand Compensation From London Under SAFE Defense Spending Program

Congo: Government and M23 Pledge To Sign Peace Deal by Aug. 18

Turkey, Iraq: Turkey To Terminate Iraq-Turkey Oil Pipeline Agreement in July 2026

Thailand, Cambodia: Landmine Incident Dashes Chances of Deescalation

Israel, Gaza: IDF Pushes Into Central Gaza as Government Slow-Walks Formal Occupation

Russia, Ukraine: Third Round of Negotiations Expected the Week of July 21

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