Assessments

Namibia

Tanzania

Uruguay

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Russia

The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet Nov. 26 to discuss Russia's first use of an experimental ballistic missile on Ukrainian territory, which on Nov. 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed involved a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as "Oreshnik."

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Nov. 21, 2024

Romania

Opinion polls ahead of Romania's parliamentary elections scheduled for Dec. 1 indicate four main possible coalition government scenarios.

2024 Elections: Romania

Global Elections

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol attends the third session of the G-20 Leaders' Meeting in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 19, 2024.

Economics

Multiple political disputes could see Yoon start stretching the limits of his power as his term winds down, pushing anti-union activity and arms exports.

In South Korea, Political Clashes Limit the President's Room To Maneuver

Columns

On Security

A U.S. flag is pictured on a soldier's uniform at the United States Army military training base in Grafenwoehr, southern Germany, on March 11, 2022.

Reports that Trump's transition team may propose establishing an outside board to evaluate senior military officers raise serious questions about the potential politicization of the U.S. armed forces in the years ahead.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 1

Snapshots

Europe

Austria

A view of the Gas Connect Austria natural gas distribution hub stand at Baumgarten an der March, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

A muted market reaction to disrupted gas supply in Austria signals Europe's preparedness for a likely cut-off of Russian gas in the coming months.

Markets Shrug Off Russia's Gas Cut-Off to Austria

France

United Kingdom

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

Senegal

Brazil

Israel

A G-20 summit banner on Nov. 12 at City Hall in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host G-20 leaders Nov. 18-19 in Rio de Janeiro, where he will try to secure support for three main proposals.

The Weekly Rundown: Brazil Hosts the G-20, Constitutional Crisis Looms in Israel

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Iran

Bangladesh

India

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (R) and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) arrive for a joint press conference at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on Feb. 25, 2020.

Environment, Science & Technology

While U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will maintain many of the outgoing Biden administration's overarching policies toward South Asia, bilateral relationships will grow increasingly transactional.

What Trump's Second Term Means for South Asia

The Iranian capital of Tehran. An Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.

The Israeli attack on a previously undisclosed active Iranian nuclear weapons research facility demonstrates that Iran is trying to reduce the timeline to develop nuclear weapons.

Israel's October Strike on an Iranian Nuclear Facility Indicates More Strikes Ahead

U.S.-Iran Relations

Media

Mozambique

Podcasts

Are there viable paths to a peaceful resolution?

Essential Geopolitics: Evolution of the Post-Election Violence in Mozambique

Latest

The Geopolitics of Water

Depleted groundwater reserves threaten India's agriculture, energy and manufacturing sectors, potentially sparking unrest and inter-state disputes in the absence of a coordinated national policy.

The Geopolitics of Water: India's Groundwater Crisis

Voters wait in line outside a voting station in Dakar on Nov. 17, 2024, during Senegal's parliamentary elections.

Senegal's ruling PASTEF party secured a strong parliamentary majority in the Nov. 17 elections, which paves the way for the implementation of its reformist manifesto and the advancement of much-needed fiscal consolidation measures.

What is Next for Senegal After The President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks during a press conference in Tokyo on Nov. 11, 2024.

While Ishiba is unlikely to leave office anytime soon, Japan's new minority government will impede domestic policymaking, which could fray U.S.-Japan ties if defense spending reforms are delayed.

Japan's PM Ishiba Survives To Struggle Another Day

Germany

The U.S. and EU flags.

Cyber

Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. 

What Trump's Return to Office Means for the European Union

People wave Uruguayan flags after the first results of the presidential and legislative elections were announced, at Plaza Varela Square in Montevideo on Oct. 27, 2024. 

The outcome will likely have the greatest impact on Uruguay's relations with the regional trade bloc Mercosur and China, as this is where the two candidates' policies diverge most.

Previewing Uruguay's Presidential Run-Off

Georgia

Opposition supporters rally to protest results from the parliamentary elections Oct. 28 outside Parliament in Tbilisi, Georgia.

Georgian Dream's claimed victory in the parliamentary election will commence a prolonged protest movement and potential political crisis.

Georgia's Protest Movement Faces an Uphill Battle After Parliamentary Elections

On Geopolitics

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

An Israeli police officer stands near the remains of an Iranian missile on Oct. 2, 2024, near the Dead Sea, Israel. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

In gauging how the conflict will evolve, much will depend on the level of Trump's support for Israel and hostility toward Iran.

How the Israel-Iran Conflict May Play Out With a Trump Presidency

North Korea

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

China

3D illustration of two folders and a rubber stamp with the word "declassified" printed on a document.

The outgoing U.S. Biden administration's liberal use of "intelligence diplomacy" as a tool of foreign policy raises questions about how the incoming Trump administration will take up the torch.

Declassified: The Future of U.S. 'Intelligence Diplomacy'

People watch a television screen showing a news broadcast with file footage of North Korea's artillery firing, at a railway station in Seoul on Jan. 6, 2024.

With both sides threatening overwhelming retaliation and having greater capabilities to make good on those threats, provocations along the North-South border now carry a greater risk of erupting into military clashes.

The Rising Risk of Military Clashes on the Korean Peninsula

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

Science & Technology

The chairman of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee, Senator Mark Warner, revealed new details about the China-backed Salt Typhoon hack against U.S. telecommunications infrastructure, including confirmation that the group has been able to read victims' SMS text messages and listen in on their phone calls in real-time, The Washington Post reported Nov. 21.

U.S.: China-Linked Salt Typhoon Hackers Have Been Listening to Calls, Reading Texts

The United Kingdom's competition regulator, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), is poised to launch a new probe into Apple and Google after an independent inquiry group found they are ''holding back innovation'' in mobile phone browser competition by maintaining an effective duopoly on mobile ecosystems, Reuters reported Nov. 22.

U.K.: Competition Regulator Initiates Inquiry into Apple, Google

Mozambican President Filipe Nyusi is expected to meet with four presidential candidates who ran in the country's contested Oct. 9 general election, including opposition leader Venancio Mondlane, on Nov. 26 to discuss the ongoing post-election crisis, Club of Mozambique reported Nov. 22.

Mozambique: Nyusi To Discuss Post-Election Crisis With Presidential Candidates

Thailand

Thailand's Constitutional Court dismissed a complaint alleging that former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is exercising undue control over the ruling Pheu Thai party, or PTP, which he founded though is no longer a member of, and is using that influence to undermine the country's monarchy, The Bangkok Post reported Nov. 22.

Thailand: Dissolution Threat Against Ruling Party Dismissed, Other Cases Still Pending

South Sudan

Heavy gunfire erupted in South Sudan's capital of Juba on the evening of Nov. 21 near the residence of the country's former spy chief, Gen. Akol Koor Kuc, Reuters reported Nov. 22.

South Sudan: Clashes Erupt in Juba Near Former Spy Chief's Residence 

Iran announced on Nov. 22 that it had issued an order to launch a ''significant series of new and advanced centrifuges of various types'' after the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Nov. 21 adopted a motion to censure Iran over its failure to fully cooperate with the U.N. nuclear watchdog's inspectors. 

Iran: Tehran To Launch 'Advanced' Centrifuges in Response to IAEA Censure

Philippines

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced that Washington would furnish the Philippines with an undisclosed number of unmanned surface vessels, or USVs, for use within the so-called West Philippine Sea (the section of the South China Sea within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone) that it disputes with China, the South China Morning Post reported Nov. 21.

U.S., Philippines: Alliance Deepens in Last Months of Biden Administration

Cambodia

Thirteen months after signing an investment framework agreement with the China Road and Bridge Corporation, or CRBC, to construct the Funan Techo Canal in Cambodia, the expected Chinese funding has not materialized, Reuters reported Nov. 21.

Cambodia, China: Funding for Funan Techo Canal in Doubt

Palestinian Territories

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan speaks to journalists in Riyadh before the first meeting of Saudi Arabia's new global alliance to push for Palestinian statehood on Oct. 30, 2024. 

Protracted regional conflicts risk undermining the kingdom's efforts to diversify its oil-reliant economy, normalize ties with Israel, and balance between Iran and its opponents. 

Saudi Arabia's Regional Strategy, Part 1: Balancing Between Iran and Its Rivals

Ghana

Both main political parties have deployed inflammatory rhetoric that has heightened political polarization, raising risks of political violence ahead of, and especially on and after, election day.

2024 Elections: Ghana 

Americas

A photo taken on June 24, 2024, shows the aftermath of a fire at a manufacturing facility in Berlin, Germany, that was allegedly linked to Russia.

Intelligence agencies are increasingly using third parties to do their dirty work abroad, raising the risk of miscalculations with potentially violent consequences.

The Saboteur's Dilemma: The Risk of Using Proxies for Espionage

App icons of social media platforms Twitter, Mastodon, Discord, Facebook, Reddit, Parler and Truth Social, are seen on an iPhone. 

As mis- and disinformation proliferate online, government-led content moderation efforts threaten to do more harm than good.

Can Europe Solve the Puzzle of Content Moderation?

ing former ministers, advisors and military officials, over their alleged involvement in a coup attempt after Bolsonaro lost the 2022 presidential election, g1 reported Nov. 21.

Brazil: Bolsonaro Indicted Over Alleged Involvement in Coup Attempt

Russia struck a facility in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro using what Russian President Vladimir Putin said was a new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile, or IRBM, named Oreshnik allegedly in response to aggressive actions of NATO countries against Russia, Reuters reported on Nov. 21. 

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Strikes Ukrainian City Using New Missile

Finland

Sweden

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

North Korea's Kim Jong Un Finds Himself in a Bind of His Own Making

A Chinese effort to build influence in Africa includes a $140 million outlay to construct a new parliament building for Zimbabwe in its capital, Harare.

Infrastructure projects have helped Beijing build influence across the globe.

How Chinese Financing Is Fueling the World’s Megaprojects

Mongolia

Under President Khaltmaa Battulga, Mongolia has been deepening its relationship with Russia.

The East Asian nation is at the geographical nexus of the rivalry among China, Russia and the United States. It faces a difficult task navigating its precarious position.

How Great Power Competition Is Changing the Geopolitics of Mongolia

For Moscow, soft power is more about sowing discord among the Kremlin's enemies than singing Russia's praises.

Rather than trumpet Russia's praises overseas, Moscow's propaganda machine is focused more on undermining the Kremlin's enemies.

Russia Takes a Hard Approach to Soft Power

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the late founder of Kataib Hezbollah, commanded respect in Iraq. His death, more than Qassem Soleimani's in the same attack, soured many Iraqis on the U.S. presence in their country.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis fought Saddam Hussein, engineered attacks on Western embassies and took on the Islamic State. His death in the same strike that killed Iran's Qassem Soleimani increased local hostility to the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Reflections on the Life and Death of an Iraqi Militant

Guatemala

Guatemala is still working out the details of how it will implement a 'safe third country' agreement signed last year with the United States.

The country's new president is likely to use the questions surrounding the implementation of the 'safe third country' agreement to wrest additional support from the U.S.

What is Next for Senegal After The President's Landslide Victory in Snap Legislative Elections

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: China-Linked Salt Typhoon Hackers Have Been Listening to Calls, Reading Texts

U.K.: Competition Regulator Initiates Inquiry into Apple, Google

Mozambique: Nyusi To Discuss Post-Election Crisis With Presidential Candidates

Thailand: Dissolution Threat Against Ruling Party Dismissed, Other Cases Still Pending

South Sudan: Clashes Erupt in Juba Near Former Spy Chief's Residence

Iran: Tehran To Launch 'Advanced' Centrifuges in Response to IAEA Censure

U.S., Philippines: Alliance Deepens in Last Months of Biden Administration

Cambodia, China: Funding for Funan Techo Canal in Doubt

Brazil: Bolsonaro Indicted Over Alleged Involvement in Coup Attempt

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Strikes Ukrainian City Using New Missile

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