Assessments

South Africa

United States

South Korea

Germany

France

United Kingdom

Ukraine

The Reichstag on Jan. 22 in Berlin. The center-right alliance between the Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, is widely expected to emerge as the largest bloc in the Bundestag after the Feb. 23 general election and lead the next coalition government.

Economics

Military & Security

Politics

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: German Elections, Macron and Starmer Meet Trump

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Feb. 20, 2025

Columns

On Geopolitics

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Russia

Crowds of Palestinians gather to receive food outside a U.N. aid distribution center in the Gazan city of Deir al-Balah on Nov. 2, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Social Issues

The displacement of any Palestinians from the Gaza Strip will further erode post-World War II norms against population transfers, laying the groundwork for future global conflicts.

Trump's Gaza Plan Risks Further Eroding Global Constraints on Population Removals

China

Europe

The U.K. flag is flown near the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., to honor the passing of Queen Elizabeth II, on Sept. 9, 2022.

While the U.K. will likely avoid major U.S. tariffs, concessions to Trump could undermine London's push to ''reset'' ties with the EU and expand economic engagement with China.

Trump's Tariff Threats Will Complicate the U.K.'s Trade Balancing Act

Media

Podcasts

Will Germany's ''fire-wall'' against the far-right hold?

Essential Geopolitics: Germany's Pivotal Upcoming Election

Global Elections

(Left to right) U.S., Saudi and Russian officials attend a meeting in Riyadh on Feb. 18, 2025.

While the talks open the door to a ceasefire, the exclusion of Ukraine and its European partners creates the risk of a deal that is not enforced and fails to end the fighting.

What To Expect From U.S.-Russia Talks on Ukraine

Syria

Turkey

Fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) stand atop a humvee in Syria's northeastern Hasakah province during a joint military exercise with the U.S.-led coalition against the Islamic State on Sept. 7, 2022.

The threat of a Turkish offensive and decreasing U.S. aid will increasingly pressure the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces to reach a deal with Syria's new government. 

The Uncertain Future of U.S.-Backed Kurds in Syria

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Kenya

Rwanda

Lebanon

Sri Lanka

Damage on Feb. 13 in the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza.

The Weekly Rundown: Mideast Ceasefires and Arab Gaza Proposals, the AU Summit

A truck crosses the Ambassador Bridge from Windsor, Ontario, to Detroit, Michigan, on Jan. 31, 2025. 

In addition to potentially triggering painful retaliatory tariffs from top U.S. trade partners, the tariffs could upend U.S. supply chains as domestic manufacturers struggle to boost production.

The Impact of Trump's Reciprocal Tariffs

The OECD logo is seen at the organization's headquarters in Paris, France, on Dec. 5, 2024.

Trump's move to exit the deal and investigate other countries' alleged discriminatory tax policies could result in the U.S. imposing retaliatory trade and tax measures on foreign companies and individuals.

The Impact of Trump's Withdrawal From the OECD Global Tax Deal

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

Supporters of Yemen's Houthi movement brandish weapons and chant slogans as they take part in a protest staged in solidarity with the Palestinian people in Gaza on Jan. 17, 2025, in Sanaa, Yemen. 

The Houthis' intervention in the Israel-Hamas war has bolstered their military capabilities and domestic influence, which could embolden them to launch renewed offensives in southern Yemen.

What Will Yemen's Houthis Do With Their New-Found Strength?

Latest

Burundi

Chad

Uganda

Members of the M23 rebel group are seen in Bukavu, eastern Congo, after the takeover of the city on Feb. 20, 2025.

Burundi's reported troop withdrawal and Uganda's apparent unwillingness to intervene against the AFC/M23 rebel group will limit the immediate risk of an escalating interstate conflict, but this could change if the rebels start advancing toward central Congo.

Assessing the Risk of an Expanded Conflict in Congo

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (second from right) attends the fifth hearing of his impeachment trial over his short-lived imposition of martial law at the Constitutional Court in Seoul on Feb. 4, 2025.

South Korea’s top court will likely uphold Yoon’s impeachment, clearing the way for a more progressive government. But the alternate scenario in which Yoon remains in office and fuels more protests and political instability cannot be ruled out. 

In South Korea, Yoon's Ouster Will Resolve Political Instability -- For Now

Iran

Iraq

Qatar

Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan welcomes his Syrian counterpart Asaad Al-Shaibani before attending an Arab officials' meeting in Riyadh on Jan. 12, 2025.

Saudi Arabia's re-engagement with Lebanon, Syria and Iraq aims to counterbalance Turkey, Qatar and Iran but faces limits due to sectarian politics and foreign interference, which may make Riyadh more assertive over time.

Saudi Arabia Moves To Counterbalance Turkey and Qatar, Replace Iran in the Levant

Snapshots

Romania

People wave Romanian flags and hold portraits of far-right presidential candidate Calin Georgescu during a protest in front of Romania's Constitutional Court in Bucharest on Jan. 10, 2025. 

The crisis is raising the risk of a far-right president taking office that would disrupt foreign policy and, less likely, a far-right prime minister that would strain EU relations and jeopardize crucial funds from the bloc.

Romania's Deepening Political Crisis Risks Empowering the Far-Right

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (center) addresses the National Assembly in Paris, France, on Feb. 5, 2025, ahead of a vote on a no-confidence motion against him. 

The approval of a budget for 2025 averts an immediate political crisis and offers short-term relief to markets, yet France's politics are still unstable and its medium-term fiscal policy direction remains uncertain.

France Passes Its 2025 Budget, but Political and Economic Challenges Persist

Stacked shipping containers are seen at Yantian Port in Shenzhen, China, on Dec. 1, 2024. 

While a resolution on stemming flows of Chinese fentanyl to the U.S. market is possible, a comprehensive trade deal is still unlikely due to the wide scope of U.S. grievances and China's reluctance to concede on sensitive issues.

New U.S. Tariffs on China May Be Negotiable, but a Broader Trade Deal Remains Unlikely

U.S.-China Relations

The U.S. and EU flags are seen next to each other.

If Trump makes good on his threat, the EU will impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods while simultaneously pursuing talks with the White House to avoid a lengthy and economically costly trade war.

Gauging the EU's Response to Potential U.S. Tariffs

The Bank of England is seen in London, the United Kingdom, on Sept. 19, 2024.

If market pressures persist, the Labour government may have to impose spending cuts or tax hikes that would derail its economic initiatives and make it all the more unpopular.

Market Instability Tests the U.K. Government's Fiscal Strategy

Canada

Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau attends a news conference on March 7, 2019 in Ottawa, Canada. 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation aims to revitalize the Liberal Party but is unlikely to prevent a Conservative electoral victory amid his declining popularity and party turmoil.

Canada's Trudeau Bows Out, Paving Way for Early Election

Moldova

This picture taken on Sept. 2, 2014, shows equipment from the border release and compressor station of the gas pipeline from Ukraine in Veke Kapusany, eastern Slovakia. 

Energy

Russia is hoping to weaken Moldova's pro-European government by inducing a destabilizing energy crisis in the winter. But if this plan fails, it could further undermine Russian influence in the country.

To Keep Its Hold on Moldova, Russia Gambles on a Gas Cut-Off

Brazil

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Syria’s de-facto leader Ahmad al-Sharaa addresses a crowd at a mosque in Damascus on Dec. 8, 2024.

While Syrians will drive their country's destiny, external influence from regional and global powers could determine what kind of government replaces the deposed Assad regime.

Syria's Future: Islamist Republic, Turkish Client State, or Jihadist Stronghold?

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

Philippines

Taiwan

Vietnam

India

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Middle East and North Africa

Eurasia

South Asia

Cargo containers painted with Chinese and U.S. flags.

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our hits and misses in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2024 Annual Forecast

U.S.-Iran Relations

Environment, Science & Technology

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

Rebel fighters celebrate in the streets of Homs, Syria, in the early hours of Dec. 8, 2024, after seizing control of the city.

Syria, the geopolitical proving ground for virtually every major regional power, may be hobbled and damaged after 13 years of civil war. But it still gets a vote in its destiny. 

Syria Sets Out Toward a New and Uncertain Future

South Korean marines participate in joint exercises with U.S. forces Sept. 2 in Pohang, South Korea. Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Japan and South Korea set the blueprint for how militaries must contend with stiff competition for human resources.

Demographic Decline and Military Manpower: Understanding the Shifting Role of People in Conflict

Vietnam released a new baseline map delineating its maritime claims in the Gulf of Tonkin, state-run Bao Chinh Phu reported on Feb. 21. 

Vietnam, China: Hanoi Releases New Gulf of Tonkin Map Disputing China's Demarcation Line

New Zealand

China's navy conducted live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea between Australia's east coast and New Zealand, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported on Feb. 21.

China, Australia, New Zealand: Chinese Navy Escalates to Live Fire Drills in Tasman Sea

Science & Technology

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to sign a memorandum on Feb. 21 that will authorize the creation of reciprocal tariffs in response to foreign digital services taxes, or DSTs, imposed by various other countries on a variety of large U.S. technology companies, Bloomberg reported the same day.

U.S.: White House Expected To Greenlight Reciprocal Tariffs Targeting Digital Services Taxes 

Tigray's interim regional administration accused certain leaders of the Tigray Defense Forces, or TDF, of dismantling local government structures in the region, warning that further attempts by the TDF to undermine local government could cause a "severe crisis," Addis Standard reported on Feb. 21.

Ethiopia: Tigray Administration Warns of Crisis After Tigray Defense Forces Storms Local Government Office 

Cyber

Apple stopped offering its Advanced Data Protection feature for new users in the United Kingdom following London's January order for Apple to build a backdoor enabling the government to access encrypted user data, Bloomberg reported on Feb. 21.

U.K.: Apple Stops Offering End-to-End iCloud Encryption Service in U.K.

Mexico

Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum submitted to Congress two constitutional reform proposals aimed at protecting the country's national sovereignty from foreign intervention and introducing the crime of terrorism for those involved in arms trafficking, La Jornada reported on Feb. 20.

Mexico: Pro-Sovereignty Constitutional Reform Risks Souring U.S.-Mexico Relations

Mozambique

Mozambican President Daniel Chapo announced that "almost 100% consensus" had been reached in talks between the ruling Frelimo party and opposition parties for an agreement that would ensure Mozambique's "economic, political and social stability," Club of Mozambique reported Feb. 20.

Mozambique: Chapo Claims Progress Towards Deal With Opposition Despite Sidelining Mondlane 

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

On Security

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) logo is displayed in the lobby of the CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia.

For many high-level intelligence positions, Trump appears to be elevating loyalists with little experience, fueling fears over politicization that could undermine the U.S. and its partners' security.

The Potential Politicization of the U.S. Security Apparatus Under Trump, Part 2

Three empty buses exploded in Bat Yam and Holon near Tel Aviv, while Israeli police discovered two additional unexploded devices; however, no casualties were reported, Times of Israel reported Feb. 20.

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Bus Explosions Portend West Bank Crack Down

The U.S. Federal Trade Commission announced on Feb. 20 a public inquiry into major tech platforms' content moderation policies and decisions to ban users over the content of their speech or affiliations. 

U.S.: FTC Launches Tech Censorship Inquiry

Australia and New Zealand are actively monitoring a Chinese naval task force transiting south off Australia's east coast 150 nautical miles east of Sydney, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported on Feb. 20.

China, Australia, New Zealand: Canberra, Wellington Monitoring PLA Naval Presence Near Their Waters

Finland

Sweden

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Decade Forecast: 2025-2035

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Vietnam, China: Hanoi Releases New Gulf of Tonkin Map Disputing China's Demarcation Line

China, Australia, New Zealand: Chinese Navy Escalates to Live Fire Drills in Tasman Sea

U.S.: White House Expected To Greenlight Reciprocal Tariffs Targeting Digital Services Taxes

Ethiopia: Tigray Administration Warns of Crisis After Tigray Defense Forces Storms Local Government Office

U.K.: Apple Stops Offering End-to-End iCloud Encryption Service in U.K.

Mexico: Pro-Sovereignty Constitutional Reform Risks Souring U.S.-Mexico Relations

Mozambique: Chapo Claims Progress Towards Deal With Opposition Despite Sidelining Mondlane

Israel, Palestinian Territories: Bus Explosions Portend West Bank Crack Down

U.S.: FTC Launches Tech Censorship Inquiry

China, Australia, New Zealand: Canberra, Wellington Monitoring PLA Naval Presence Near Their Waters

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