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On Security

United States

Police tape hangs in front of Utah Valley University following the fatal shooting of political activist Charlie Kirk during an event at the campus Sept. 12, 2025 in Orem, Utah. The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Political Instability & Social Unrest

War, Insurgency & Terrorism

Military & Security

Politics

The period between now and whenever the current wave of political violence ebbs is likely to be volatile, punctuated by further attacks, domestic political instability and the erosion of U.S. global influence.

Charlie Kirk's Assassination: The Latest Chapter in America's Long History of Political Violence

Media

Podcasts

How does the Trump administration's stance toward the Fed differ from that of previous administrations?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Fed Independence

Assessments

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 11, 2025

Snapshots

Poland

Ukraine

Russia

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Russia's drone incursion into Poland highlights Moscow's increasing willingness to test Western resolve as it continues mass airstrikes on Ukraine, prepares for war games in Belarus and negotiations to end the war are stalled. 


Russian Drones Crossing into Poland Risk Escalation with NATO

Nepal

Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption. 

Economics

Despite the prime minister's resignation and the lifting of a controversial social media ban, risks of violent unrest will likely persist as long-standing political instability deepens.

Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Qatar

Smoke billows after explosions in Qatar's capital of Doha on Sept. 9. The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The attack will reduce the odds of a ceasefire in Gaza as Qatar walks back from its role as mediator and reassesses its regional diplomatic and security strategy.

Israel's Attack on Hamas' Political Leadership Scrambles Qatar's Regional Role

France

France's then-Prime Minister Francois Bayrou (C) delivers his general policy statement during an extraordinary parliamentary session prior to a confidence vote over the government's austerity budget at the National Assembly in Paris on Sept. 8, 2025.

Spending cuts proposed by the ousted prime minister and the prospect of further austerity measures have energized a new grassroots movement, raising the specter of another yellow vest-style uprising.

In France, Prime Minister Bayrou's Ouster Deepens Political Paralysis and Fiscal Uncertainty

Japan

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba attends a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office on Sept. 6, 2025, in Tokyo, Japan.

Japan's leadership contest will threaten to split the ruling party as conservative and reformer factions compete to place their leaders in the country's highest office.

In Japan, Ishiba's Resignation Sparks a Volatile Party Leadership Contest

Global Elections

United Kingdom

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer departs 10 Downing Street on Sept. 3 in London. The Labour Party's deputy leadership contest will intensify internal party criticism of Starmer ahead of a politically painful budget in November.

The Labour Party's deputy leadership contest will intensify internal party criticism of Prime Minister Keir Starmer ahead of a politically painful budget in November. 

The Contest for Deputy Leader of UK Labour Will Intensify the Party's Woes

Ethiopia

Brazil

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou leaves after the weekly cabinet meeting at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France, on Aug. 27, 2025.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: France's Bayrou Faces a Confidence Vote, Ethiopia Inaugurates Its Mega-Dam

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou arrives ahead of meetings with party leaders as part of political consultations at the Hotel de Matignon in Paris, on Sept. 4, 2025, ahead of the French National Assembly's vote of confidence.

Decisive action to significantly reduce fiscal deficits will remain elusive before and likely after France's next presidential election, given political fragmentation and polarization that will prevent a stable legislative majority.

French Debt Soars As Parliament Unlikely To Reach Fiscal Consolidation

Latest

Egypt

Iran

Iraq

Lebanon

Saudi Arabia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

A picture taken from a distance shows the damaged building (L) in the Qatari compound housing members of Hamas' political bureau on Sept. 10, 2025. Israel targeted the building the previous day in a strike in Qatar's capital, Doha. 

Israel's Sept. 9 airstrikes in Qatar will likely harden the stances of Iranian-backed groups, keep normalization with Saudi Arabia off the table and drive more assertive postures from other regional states.

The Regional Implications of Israel's Strikes in Qatar

China

Kazakhstan

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev waits to greet foreign leaders during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states leaders' summit in Astana on July 4, 2024.

Despite President Tokayev's reform proposals, Kazakhstan's succession process will remain vulnerable to destabilizing forces, including elite rivalries and foreign influence.

How Kazakhstan's Proposed Reforms Will Impact the Question of Succession

A vehicle in a U.S. military convoy drives in Arbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.

The U.S. drawdown from Iraq will weaken Washington's direct influence while creating more space for Turkey to expand economically and Iran to gradually reassert itself through political and militia networks. 

Iraq's Shifting Power Dynamics After U.S. Withdrawal

Burkina Faso

Chad

Mali

Niger

Nigeria

Nigerian soldiers from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) drive in pick-ups during training at the Sector 3 MNJTF military base headquarters in Monguno, Borno state, Nigeria, on July 5, 2025. 

Armed groups will continue to expand across Nigeria as the government struggles with domestic constraints and limits on regional security cooperation.

In Nigeria, Security Forces Struggle To Address Growing Militancy

India

Participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 pose for photos in Tianjin, China, on Sept. 1, 2025.

Energy

Global Trade

U.S. trade uncertainty will help China deepen trade ties with its Central Asian neighbors and infrastructure ties with Russia, but its relations with India will remain inhibited by border disputes and differing defense priorities.

China Positions Itself as Growth Catalyst for Central Asia at SCO Summit

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a meeting on May 14, 2015, in Xian, China. 

While Trump-era tariff pressures offer a new economic incentive for cooperation, Beijing and New Delhi are unlikely to fully normalize ties due to enduring strategic and security concerns.

Despite Modest Improvement, India-China Relations Face Enduring Challenges

On Geopolitics

A portrait of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan is seen in the background as U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, D.C., on April 22, 2025.

Environment, Science & Technology

In just seven months in office, the Trump administration has pursued a series of highly unconventional economic policies that, taken together, amount to the deepest government interventionism into the U.S. economy of any president since the Reagan era.

The Visible Hand: Trump's Interventionism Reshapes American Capitalism

U.S.-China Relations

A person holds a smartphone showing an interface introducing OpenAI's new GPT-5 model in the ChatGPT app in front of a blurred OpenAI logo on Aug. 9, 2025, in Chongqing, China. 

Despite users' disappointment with the lack of conversational improvements, GPT-5 signifies a shift in AI development from basic chatbots to more advanced agentic systems, capable of complex, multi-step tasks.

GPT-5 and the Evolution of AI

South Sudan

Somalia

Sudan

Uganda

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters near Air Force One at the airport in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 3, 2025. Trump answered questions about his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, among other topics. 

While the Trump administration's outreach to Russia may yield limited cooperation, a comprehensive ''reset'' is unlikely for the foreseeable future due to Moscow and Washington's diverging strategic interests.

Can Trump Reset U.S.-Russia Relations?

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose ahead of a meeting in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018. 

As Putin and Trump prepare to meet in Alaska, the main risk for Ukraine is a U.S.-Russia deal that cements major territorial losses while offering weak security guarantees, leaving it vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

Putin-Trump Summit: The Risks for Ukraine

Mexico

DEA New York special agent in charge speaks to the press in New York City on Feb. 28, 2025, after the former leader of a brutal Mexican cartel, Rafael Caro Quintero, described by the White House as the world's ''most evil'' drug boss, pleaded not guilty to narcotics charges in New York.

Despite the political and diplomatic risks, Trump is more likely than not to launch some direct operations against Mexican cartels before he leaves office, potentially ranging from light and sporadic U.S. drone strikes to more extensive ground operations.

The Outlook for Trump's 'War' on Mexican Cartels

Europe

Lithuania

Germany

Finland

Latvia

Denmark

Estonia

Sweden

Norway

Belarus

A view in Rostock, Germany, of the first exit of warships for the NATO exercise BALTOPS in the Baltic Sea on June 5, 2025. 

In response to Russian aggression, NATO is seeking to establish strategic control over the Baltic Sea via rearmament and more assertive posturing, creating an environment where the risk of miscalculation grows exponentially.

Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

Canada

South Korea

EU ambassadors discussed whether the bloc’s 150 billion euro ($176 billion) Security Action for Europe (SAFE) loan facility for defense investments and joint procurement could be used to finance arms purchases from the United Kingdom and Canada, with France pushing to cap such purchases at 50% of their value to prioritize EU-based defense manufacturers, Euractiv reported on Sept. 12.

EU: Member States Debate Third-Country Participation in SAFE Defense Joint Procurement Initiative

Late on Sept. 11, a Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson addressed Mexico's impending tariffs on Chinese automobiles by saying, "Any unilateral tariff increase by Mexico…will be seen as appeasement and compromise of unilateral bullying" by the United States, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 12. 

China, Mexico: Beijing Likely To Retaliate Against Auto Tariffs

Tanzania

The High Court of Tanzania directed the country's electoral commission to allow Luhaga Mpina, the presidential candidate of the opposition ACT-Wazalendo party, to run in the Oct. 29 general election, The Chanzo reported on Sept. 11.

Tanzania: High Court Reinstates ACT-Wazalendo Flagbearer as Party Cleared To Run in Zanzibar 

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Taiwan

Science & Technology

At the annual Pacific Islands Forum leaders' summit, which took place in the Solomon Islands capital of Honiara, PIF leaders rejected a Chinese proposal to remove Taiwan from the forum framework and reaffirmed its status as a "development partner," the Australian Financial Review reported on Sept. 12. 

Pacific Islands: Annual Summit Advances Climate, Peace and Autonomy Initiatives

Brazil's Federal Supreme Court convicted former President Jair Bolsonaro and seven of his close allies of five crimes involving a coup attempt in 2022, g1 reported on Sept. 11. 

Brazil: Bolsonaro's Conviction To Trigger Additional U.S. Punitive Measures and Unrest Risks

The Nepalese military remained on the streets of the capital Kathmandu and began preliminary talks with protesters on appointing an interim leader, with protest representatives split on a proposal to appoint former Chief Justice Sushila Karki to the position, AP reported on Sept. 11.

Nepal: Army Officials Meet With Protesters as Military and President Pursue Solution to Current Crisis

Venezuela

The U.S. Navy warship USS Sampson docks at the Amador International Cruise Terminal in Panama City on Aug. 30, 2025. 

While further kinetic operations against Venezuelan drug trafficking groups are probable, the Trump administration's pressure campaign against Caracas is unlikely to escalate into a U.S. invasion or seriously threaten the Maduro regime.

Assessing U.S. Military Activity in the Caribbean and What It Means for Venezuela

U.S. Naval Update Map: Sept. 4, 2025

Syria

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021. 

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

Bahrain

Oman

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

South Sudan's First Vice President Riek Machar has been suspended and charged with treason, crimes against humanity and murder over his alleged links to the White Army, an ethnic Nuer militia, Reuters reported on Sept. 11. 

South Sudan: Vice President Machar Suspended Amid Escalating Violence

U.S. envoy John Coale announced in Minsk that Washington lifted sanctions on Belarusian airline Belavia on direct instructions from U.S. President Donald Trump and pledged to work toward reopening the U.S. Embassy, Reuters reported on Sept. 11.

Belarus, U.S.: Trump Lifts Belavia Sanctions as Minsk Frees Prisoners in Bid for Rapprochement

Cambodia

Thailand

Thailand and Cambodia agreed to gradually withdraw heavy weapons from contested frontier areas, set up a joint landmine-clearing panel and prepare a plan to repatriate captured soldiers, the Phnom Penh Post reported Sept. 11.

Thailand, Cambodia: Limited Agreement Reached to Ease Border Tensions

On Sept. 11, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney will announce the first set of major infrastructure projects his Liberal minority government hopes to fast-track for approval, CBC reported on Sept. 10. 

Canada: Prime Minister To Unveil First 'Nation-Building Projects' to Fast-Track

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

The Regional Implications of Israel's Strikes in Qatar

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

EU: Member States Debate Third-Country Participation in SAFE Defense Joint Procurement Initiative

China, Mexico: Beijing Likely To Retaliate Against Auto Tariffs

Tanzania: High Court Reinstates ACT-Wazalendo Flagbearer as Party Cleared To Run in Zanzibar

Pacific Islands: Annual Summit Advances Climate, Peace and Autonomy Initiatives

Brazil: Bolsonaro's Conviction To Trigger Additional U.S. Punitive Measures and Unrest Risks

Nepal: Army Officials Meet With Protesters as Military and President Pursue Solution to Current Crisis

South Sudan: Vice President Machar Suspended Amid Escalating Violence

Belarus, U.S.: Trump Lifts Belavia Sanctions as Minsk Frees Prisoners in Bid for Rapprochement

Thailand, Cambodia: Limited Agreement Reached to Ease Border Tensions

Canada: Prime Minister To Unveil First 'Nation-Building Projects' to Fast-Track

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