<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

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The India-Pakistan Rivalry

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India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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Intensifying trade wars, a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, continued volatility in the Middle East and consequential elections in key countries will shape the quarter.

2025 Second-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

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India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) walks with New Zealand's Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (R) before their meeting at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on March 17, 2025. 

Global Trade

U.S. tariff threats are pushing India to revamp negotiations over free trade agreements, but protectionist trade policies and other obstacles will challenge the progression of talks.

India Dusts Off Old FTA Negotiations Ahead of U.S. Tariffs

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Canadian flags are seen outside a building in Ottawa. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Canada's Ruling Liberals Pick a New Leader, India and the EU Hold Trade Talks 

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How might U.S. President Donald Trump's economic policy affect emerging and developing markets?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Emerging Markets

How will the global risk landscape evolve over the course of the year?

Essential Geopolitics: RANE's Forecast Trends for 2025

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Damage on Feb. 13 in the Jabaliya refugee camp in northern Gaza.

The Weekly Rundown: Mideast Ceasefires and Arab Gaza Proposals, the AU Summit

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi speaks during a luncheon at the U.S. State Department on June 23, 2023, in Washington, D.C.

Discussions between the two leaders will likely focus on addressing India's trade surplus with the U.S., exploring ways to mitigate potential tariffs, and deepening defense cooperation.

What To Expect From Modi's Meeting With Trump

Ecuador

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Jordan's King Abdullah II speaks to the press in the Cross Hall of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 12, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: Trump Meets With India and Jordan's Leaders, Ecuador Holds Elections

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The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Bangladeshi soldiers stand guard in Dhaka on July 27, 2024.

Since assuming power in August, Bangladesh's interim government has pursued closer ties with Pakistan and China, deepening India's concerns about regional stability and its declining influence over Dhaka.

Bangladesh's More Assertive Foreign Policy Puts India on Edge

The lower house of India's parliament passed a contentious bill that, among other things, would add non-Muslims to boards that manage Muslim land endowments and enhance the government's role in determining ownership of disputed lands, Reuters reported April 3.

India: Lower House Passes Contentious Reform of Muslim Land Endowments

On April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of reciprocal tariffs, including a 37% tariff on Bangladesh, a 30% tariff on Pakistan, and a 44% tariff on Sri Lanka, Reuters reported on April 3.

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh: Steep U.S. Tariffs Hit Countries' Crucial Textile Exports

India's trade department said it was ''carefully examining the implications'' of new U.S. tariffs and consulting with industry experts(?) and exporters to assess their impact after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a series of reciprocal tariffs affecting nearly all U.S. trading partners, including a 27% tariff on India, Reuters reported on April 3.

India: Government 'Examining' Impact of 27% U.S. Tariff

Myanmar

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A 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck near Mandalay, Myanmar, leading to widespread destruction and killing at least 25 people, including at least three across the border in Thailand, with the death count still rising, The New York Times reported on March 28.

Myanmar: Largest Earthquake in Over a Century Kills Dozens, Imperils BRI Projects

On March 28, Bangladesh's Chief Adviser Muhammad Yunus met with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his first state visit, which began on March 26 and lasted four days, the Daily Star reported March 28.

Bangladesh, China: Yunus meets with Xi, Signing 8 MoUs and Deal on Economic and Technical Cooperation

International Monetary Fund staff and Pakistani authorities have reached a staff-level agreement on the first review of Pakistan's Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and a new arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), Reuters reported March 25.

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement

On March 24, Trump announced that the United States would impose a 25% secondary tariff on countries buying oil and gas from Venezuela, set to take effect on April 2, the Hindu reported on March 25.

India: Trump's 25% Tariff on Venezuelan Oil Poses Challenges for India

The Afghan Taliban's interior ministry spokesperson said the United States had withdrawn bounties on Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and two other members of the Haqqani network, Abdul Aziz Haqqani and Yahya Haqqani, AP reported on March 23.

U.S., Afghanistan: Afghan Taliban Says U.S. Withdrew Bounties on Senior Figures

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

India: Lower House Passes Contentious Reform of Muslim Land Endowments

Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh: Steep U.S. Tariffs Hit Countries' Crucial Textile Exports

India: Government 'Examining' Impact of 27% U.S. Tariff

Myanmar: Largest Earthquake in Over a Century Kills Dozens, Imperils BRI Projects

Bangladesh, China: Yunus meets with Xi, Signing 8 MoUs and Deal on Economic and Technical Cooperation

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement

India: Trump's 25% Tariff on Venezuelan Oil Poses Challenges for India

U.S., Afghanistan: Afghan Taliban Says U.S. Withdrew Bounties on Senior Figures

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