<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

Banking

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Globalization

Social Issues

The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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Representatives of various Bangladeshi political parties present the July National Charter at the South Plaza of the National Parliament in Dhaka on Oct. 17, 2025. 

Military & Security

Politics

The proposed reforms underscore efforts by some of Bangladesh's main political forces to curb the concentration of power, strengthen democratic institutions and ensure greater accountability and transparency.

Uncertainty Over Bangladesh Charter Implementation Will Sustain Risks of Unrest

Canada

A digital illustration of the Indian and Canadian flags.

Economics

Global Trade

India and Canada's efforts to improve relations could see them resume trade talks after a two-year hiatus. But lingering mistrust, particularly over Sikh separatist activity in Canada, may hinder deeper progress.

India and Canada's Diplomatic Reset: Opportunities and Challenges

Assessments

Afghan men gather in support of the Taliban government during a rally in Khost, Afghanistan, on Oct. 13, 2025, amid heavy cross-border clashes with Pakistan.

Further violence is likely in the coming weeks and potentially longer, as the two countries' entrenched disputes regarding their shared border and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan will challenge international peace efforts.

Deadly Border Clashes Sharply Escalate Afghanistan-Pakistan Tensions

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On Geopolitics

Protesters gather at the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025. 

Widespread discontent with corruption and economic mismanagement is fueling movements that demand greater accountability across South Asia.

Political Instability Roils South Asia

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

A department store on Sept. 5, 2025, in Mumbai, after the Indian government slashed GST rates. While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

India's GST Reforms Will Weigh on State Finances 

Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption. 

Despite the prime minister's resignation and the lifting of a controversial social media ban, risks of violent unrest will likely persist as long-standing political instability deepens.

Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation

China

Russia

Participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 pose for photos in Tianjin, China, on Sept. 1, 2025.

Energy

U.S. trade uncertainty will help China deepen trade ties with its Central Asian neighbors and infrastructure ties with Russia, but its relations with India will remain inhibited by border disputes and differing defense priorities.

China Positions Itself as Growth Catalyst for Central Asia at SCO Summit

United States

A freight train carrying cargo containers rides along a railway track in Ajmer, India, on Aug. 26, 2025. 

While India will remain engaged in U.S. trade talks, a deal that secures relief from Trump's 50% tariff will remain elusive amid New Delhi's reluctance to reduce its agricultural protections and Russian oil purchases. 


U.S. Tariffs Strain India's Exports Amid Stalled Trade Talks

Following Afghanistan and Pakistan's most intense clashes in years, the two sides agreed to a more permanent ceasefire during talks in Doha mediated by Turkey and Qatar, Reuters reported on Oct. 19.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Kabul, Islamabad Agree to More Permanent Ceasefire Following Doha Talks

Representatives from 25 political parties and alliances in Bangladesh, including major groups such as the Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, signed the July National Charter 2025 -- named after the national uprisings of July 2024 -- which lays out a roadmap for constitutional amendments, legal reforms and the introduction of new legislation, The Business Standard reported on Oct. 17. 

Bangladesh: Interim Government and Political Parties Sign Political Charter

On Oct. 16, U.S. President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him that India would halt oil purchases from Russia, The Economic Times reported on Oct. 17.

India: Trump Claims Modi Assured Him India Would Stop Purchasing Russian Oil

Pakistan's foreign ministry announced it had agreed to a 48-hour ceasefire with the Afghan Taliban starting at 6 p.m. Pakistan standard time, hours after clashes resurged following days of relative calm, Reuters reported on Oct. 15.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Fresh Clashes Erupt and Last Hours Before Islamabad, Kabul Agree to 48-Hour Ceasefire

The International Monetary Fund announced that it reached a staff-level agreement with Pakistan, paving the way for the release of $1.2 billion upon executive board approval, Bloomberg reported on Oct. 15. 

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement on $1.2B Disbursement

Intense clashes erupted between Afghan Taliban fighters and Pakistani security forces along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border late on Oct. 11, days after the Taliban accused Pakistan of carrying out airstrikes in Afghanistan, AP reported on Oct. 12.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Clashes Erupt Days After Strike Accusations

The Afghan Taliban's spokesperson said in a late Oct. 9 post on X that the sound of an explosion had just been heard in Afghanistan's capital, and added that authorities were investigating the incident but that no damage had been reported yet.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Kabul Explosion May Be a Pakistani Strike Against TTP Leader

Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi landed in India to begin a scheduled Oct. 9-16 visit, marking the Taliban's highest-level visit to India since the group retook control of Afghanistan in August 2021, Reuters reported Oct. 9.

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Kabul, Islamabad Agree to More Permanent Ceasefire Following Doha Talks

Bangladesh: Interim Government and Political Parties Sign Political Charter

India: Trump Claims Modi Assured Him India Would Stop Purchasing Russian Oil

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Fresh Clashes Erupt and Last Hours Before Islamabad, Kabul Agree to 48-Hour Ceasefire

Pakistan: IMF and Pakistan Reach Staff-Level Agreement on $1.2B Disbursement

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Border Clashes Erupt Days After Strike Accusations

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Kabul Explosion May Be a Pakistani Strike Against TTP Leader

Afghanistan: Taliban Foreign Minister Begins Trip to India, Seeking to Foster Bilateral Ties

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