<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

Banking

Crossing Borders

Globalization

Social Issues

The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

The entrance to the International Monetary Fund headquarters is seen in Washington, D.C.

Economics

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Politics

While Bangladesh is making progress in its IMF program, risks persist, including political uncertainty, low foreign exchange reserves and high U.S. tariffs on its vital garment sector.

Bangladesh's Economic Outlook: Progress and Persistent Challenges

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

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Eurasia

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The third quarter of 2025 will be defined by disruptive trade policies fueling supply chain volatility and the persistent risk of escalation in major conflicts.

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

United States

Iran

Israel

Australia

China

Japan

A photo taken in Tehran, Iran, on June 26, 2025, shows an Iranian political banner hanging near the remains of a residential building struck by an Israeli attack. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Fragile Iran-Israel Ceasefire Holds, U.S. Tariff Deadline Approaches

U.S.-Iran Relations

Water runs in the Gurez valley in India-administered Jammu and Kashmir, near the India-Pakistan border, on June 3, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Diplomatic talks between India and Pakistan will likely remain stalled due to ongoing airspace closures and disputes over water-sharing, sustaining the risk of a future conflict following the two countries' military confrontation earlier this year.

Unresolved Tensions: Water, Airspace and the Future of India-Pakistan Diplomacy

Media

Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Third-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Third-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

Turkey

Russia

The Geopolitics of Trade

Turkey's export strategy necessitates trade partnerships with countries in many different spheres of influence, portending both risks and opportunities as Ankara attempts to maintain its neutral middle-power status.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Turkey's Export Strategy Hinges on Neutrality

Podcasts

Will the cease-fire between the two countries last?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for India-Pakistan Relations

India's evolving trade strategy aims to boost key exports while protecting sensitive sectors, reflecting a blend of liberalization and long-standing protectionist instincts.

The Geopolitics of Trade: India

The Bombay Stock Exchange building May 7 in Mumbai, India. If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

If military hostilities were to resume and lead to a prolonged conflict, Pakistan would be far less well-positioned than India to sustain it from an economic and financial perspective.

The Economic Case for an India-Pakistan Ceasefire

Snapshots

Indian soldiers pay respect during a wreath-laying ceremony for a soldier who was killed during a cross-border firing between India and Pakistan, in Jammu on May 12, 2025. 

While the near-term threat of severe escalation has waned, ongoing tensions over thorny issues like Kashmir and water-sharing will sustain the risk of cross-border flare-ups.

Amid India and Pakistan's Tenuous Ceasefire, Future Flare-Ups Remain Possible

Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari unilaterally enacted an ordinance expanding the Frontier Constabulary, a paramilitary force that primarily operates in regions near the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, into a national force called the Federal Constabulary with authority to operate across all provinces and in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, Reuters reported on July 14.

Pakistan: Government To Establish New National Paramilitary Force

Canada

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Australia launched U.S.-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems as part of the 2025 Exercise Talisman Sabre, the largest iteration of the biennial multinational drills to date, AP reported on July 14.

Australia: HIMARS Fired Amid Largest-Ever Military Drills

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs set to take effect in August, with Sri Lanka facing a 30% rate, down from the 44% initially proposed in April, Reuters reported on July 10. 

Sri Lanka: Trump Announces 30% Tariff on Sri Lanka

Ethiopia

Nigeria

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Brazil

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Kazakhstan

BRICS+ leaders gathered in Brazil for the bloc's 17th summit and issued a joint statement defending multilateralism, calling for U.N. reform and supporting Russia's and Iran's positions in ongoing conflicts, g1 reported on July 6.

BRICS+: Bloc Increasingly Leans Away From West, but Avoids Picking Fights With U.S.

Russia's presidential envoy to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, announced that Russia had officially recognized the Taliban-run Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, making it the first country in the world to do so, RIA Novosti reported on July 3.

Afghanistan, Russia: Russia Becomes First Country To Officially Recognize the Taliban Government 

Zambia

The Indian government dispatched a team of geologists to explore cobalt and copper deposits across a 9,000 square kilometer (3,475 square mile) area allocated by the Zambian government, Reuters reported on July 2.

Zambia: India Begins Fresh Exploration Works for Cobalt, Copper Deposits

Energy

The Afghan Taliban said it had terminated its 25-year, $540 million oil extraction and development contract with China-based Xinjiang Central Asia Petroleum and Gas Co. on June 17, Nikkei reported on June 25.

Afghanistan, China: Afghan Taliban Cancels Major Chinese Oil Extraction Deal

Under a combined third and fourth review of Bangladesh's ongoing loan program, the International Monetary Fund's executive board approved the release of $1.3 billion, Bloomberg reported on June 24. 

Bangladesh: IMF To Release $1.3B After Third and Fourth Loan Review

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: Government To Establish New National Paramilitary Force

Australia: HIMARS Fired Amid Largest-Ever Military Drills

Sri Lanka: Trump Announces 30% Tariff on Sri Lanka

BRICS+: Bloc Increasingly Leans Away From West, but Avoids Picking Fights With U.S.

Afghanistan, Russia: Russia Becomes First Country To Officially Recognize the Taliban Government

Zambia: India Begins Fresh Exploration Works for Cobalt, Copper Deposits

Afghanistan, China: Afghan Taliban Cancels Major Chinese Oil Extraction Deal

Bangladesh: IMF To Release $1.3B After Third and Fourth Loan Review

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