<p>Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. The Himalayan Mountains form the northern border of South Asia, whose two main rivers, the Indus and the Ganges, support the region&rsquo;s great population centers. India is the region&rsquo;s dominant country, home to the world&rsquo;s fastest growing economy. But its rivalry with neighboring Pakistan, a fellow nuclear power and growing consumer market, has made South Asia one of the world&rsquo;s most dangerous nuclear flashpoints. The region is also a testament to how militancy and militarism can undermine the regional integration needed to unleash higher economic growth.</p>

Everything that informs geopolitics can be found in South Asia: challenging demographics, geographic diversity, and contentious, ill-defined borders. 

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

Bhutan

India

Maldives

Nepal

Pakistan

Sri Lanka

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

Banking

Crossing Borders

Globalization

Social Issues

The Pulse of Political Islam

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

India's Own Worst Enemy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

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Forecast Webcast

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Israel-Hamas Conflict

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Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

Assessments

Politics

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Snapshots

A department store on Sept. 5, 2025, in Mumbai, after the Indian government slashed GST rates. While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

While the government's tax changes will support growth by boosting disposable incomes and household consumption, they are likely only a short-term measure that threatens to strain some Indian states' budgets.

India's GST Reforms Will Weigh on State Finances 

Demonstrators carrying Nepal's national flag stage a protest outside the parliament building in Kathmandu on Sept. 8, 2025, against social media prohibitions and government corruption. 

Despite the prime minister's resignation and the lifting of a controversial social media ban, risks of violent unrest will likely persist as long-standing political instability deepens.

Nepal's Political Instability Deepens as Violent Protests Prompt Prime Minister's Resignation

China

Russia

Participants of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit 2025 pose for photos in Tianjin, China, on Sept. 1, 2025.

Energy

Global Trade

U.S. trade uncertainty will help China deepen trade ties with its Central Asian neighbors and infrastructure ties with Russia, but its relations with India will remain inhibited by border disputes and differing defense priorities.

China Positions Itself as Growth Catalyst for Central Asia at SCO Summit

United States

A freight train carrying cargo containers rides along a railway track in Ajmer, India, on Aug. 26, 2025. 

While India will remain engaged in U.S. trade talks, a deal that secures relief from Trump's 50% tariff will remain elusive amid New Delhi's reluctance to reduce its agricultural protections and Russian oil purchases. 


U.S. Tariffs Strain India's Exports Amid Stalled Trade Talks

The Geopolitics of Trade

Environment, Science & Technology

Geopolitical, security and environmental risks threaten to disrupt trade through crucial waterways, including the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the Suez Canal, the Danish and Turkish straits, and the Panama Canal.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Threats to Maritime Chokepoints Endanger Global Trade, Part 2

Ecuador

Mexico

North Korea

Ukraine

Helicopters fly in the sky during a rehearsal for a military parade Aug. 24 in Beijing.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: An SCO Summit, Rubio Closes Security Deals With Mexico and Ecuador

Diverse security risks threaten maritime chokepoints around the world, presenting unique challenges to international trade.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Threats to Maritime Chokepoints Endanger Global Trade, Part 1

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping attend a meeting on May 14, 2015, in Xian, China. 

While Trump-era tariff pressures offer a new economic incentive for cooperation, Beijing and New Delhi are unlikely to fully normalize ties due to enduring strategic and security concerns.

Despite Modest Improvement, India-China Relations Face Enduring Challenges

The first round of talks on Oct. 2 between a Pakistani government delegation and protesters in Pakistan-administered Kashmir failed to break an impasse over protesters' demands for authorities to limit local officials' benefits, which many residents allege are being provided at the expense of local services, Arab News Pakistan reported on Oct. 3.

Pakistan: Talks Between Government and Protesters Fail After Deadly Unrest

Afghanistan's fiber-optic telecommunications network was restored the evening of Oct. 1, easing nationwide disruptions to internet, phone and other services that had resulted from the Taliban's shutdown of the network on Sept. 29, Tolo News has reported.

Afghanistan: Telecommunications Network Reportedly Restored After Taliban's Shutdown

India's foreign ministry announced that direct flights between selected cities in India and China will resume this month, ending a suspension that lasted over five years, Reuters reported Oct. 2.

India, China: Countries To Resume Direct Flights After Five-Year Suspension

Cyber

The Afghan Taliban shut down Afghanistan's fiber-optic telecommunications network indefinitely amid a push in recent weeks to limit activities it deems immoral, resulting in disruptions to internet access, mobile and landline phone services, as well as television and radio transmissions, AFP reported on Sept. 30.

Afghanistan: Taliban Imposes Nationwide Telecommunications Blackout

Singapore

Switzerland

Ireland

U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Truth Social on Sept. 25 that effective Oct. 1, the United States would impose a 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities, a 30% tariff on upholstered furniture, a 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks, and a 100% tariff on branded or patented pharmaceutical products, unless the company is building a pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in the United States. 

U.S.: National Security Tariffs on Some Pharmaceuticals, Certain Home Furniture and Trucks

The Group of Seven nations and the European Union have discussed establishing a price floor on rare earth minerals and placing taxes on Chinese rare earth minerals in an effort to promote rare earth production outside of China, Reuters reported on Sept. 24.

Global: G7 and EU Discuss Rare Earth Price Floor, Tariffs To Boost Production

Sudan Gurung, a leading figure of Nepal's "Gen Z" protest movement that ousted the previous government, called for the "immediate arrest" of the outgoing government's ministers, adding that protesters would also bring down the interim government should their demands remain unmet, Reuters reported on Sept. 23.

Nepal: Activist Demands Add Pressure on Interim Authorities

Unnamed sources familiar with ongoing discussions say U.S. officials are in very preliminary discussions with the Afghan Taliban on potentially reestablishing a small U.S. military presence at Bagram Air Field in Afghanistan's northeast Parwan province, which would serve as a "launch point" for counterterrorism operations, The Wall Street Journal reported on Sept. 19.

Afghanistan: U.S. Officials Reportedly in Early Talks With Taliban on Retaking Bagram Air Base

South Asia

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: Talks Between Government and Protesters Fail After Deadly Unrest

Afghanistan: Telecommunications Network Reportedly Restored After Taliban's Shutdown

India, China: Countries To Resume Direct Flights After Five-Year Suspension

Afghanistan: Taliban Imposes Nationwide Telecommunications Blackout

U.S.: National Security Tariffs on Some Pharmaceuticals, Certain Home Furniture and Trucks

Global: G7 and EU Discuss Rare Earth Price Floor, Tariffs To Boost Production

Nepal: Activist Demands Add Pressure on Interim Authorities

Afghanistan: U.S. Officials Reportedly in Early Talks With Taliban on Retaking Bagram Air Base

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