Pakistan

Military & Security

Politics

A Pakistani court sentenced former Prime Minister Imran Khan to 14 years in prison in a land corruption case, Reuters reported on Jan. 17.

Pakistan: Khan Sentenced to 14 Years in Prison Over Corruption

Economics

The World Bank committed $20 billion to Pakistan through a 10-year Country Partnership Framework aimed at fostering inclusive and sustainable development, Reuters reported on Jan. 15.

Pakistan: World Bank Unveils 10-Year Plan for $20B

Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan instructed his opposition Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party's negotiation team to continue engaging with the government, Geo News reported on Jan. 8. 

Pakistan: Opposition Leader Khan Orders PTI To Proceed With Government Talks

United States

China

Pakistan's Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif announced that the United Arab Emirates agreed to extend a $2 billion payment deadline that was due in January, Reuters reported on Jan. 7.

Pakistan: UAE To Extend $2B Payment Deadline for Pakistan

Afghanistan

The head of the Afghan Taliban's political office in Qatar said the group does not intend to escalate after border clashes erupted with Pakistani forces following Pakistan's Dec. 24 airstrikes on alleged Afghanistan-based militants, but that further Pakistani "escalation" would prompt the Afghan Taliban to undertake "measured retaliation," Bloomberg reported on Dec. 31.

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Afghan Taliban Official Says Group Seeks De-Escalation After Retaliating Against Pakistani Strikes

Bangladesh

India

According to Indian media reports, Pakistan will begin training Bangladesh's army in February 2025, which would mark the two countries' first military training agreement since the 1971 Liberation War that led to Bangladesh's independence from Pakistan, Firstpost reported on Dec. 30.

Bangladesh: India Claims Pakistan Will Provide Military Training to Bangladesh

Social Issues

Pakistan's military media wing announced that a military court had sentenced 60 civilians to prison terms ranging from two to 10 years for their involvement in attacks on military facilities following the 2023 arrest of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, Reuters reported Dec. 27.

Pakistan: Pakistan's Military Court Sentences 60 More Civilians to Prison Terms of up to 10 Years

Pakistan's Foreign Office acknowledged Dec. 26 that the country had carried out ''operations in border areas,'' days after Pakistan's reported Dec. 24 airstrikes on alleged Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan camps in Afghanistan's Paktika province, Dawn reported Dec. 26.

Pakistan: Country Confirms It Conducted Airstrikes on Militant Camps in Afghanistan

Assessments

Taliban security personnel inspect a car damaged by Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan's eastern Paktika province on Dec. 26, 2024. 

While the TTP may not completely follow through on its recent threats, its attacks in Pakistan are set to escalate.

Afghanistan and Pakistan's Deadlock Portends Worsened TTP Attacks

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

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U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (R) and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) arrive for a joint press conference at Hyderabad House in New Delhi, India, on Feb. 25, 2020.

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

While U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will maintain many of the outgoing Biden administration's overarching policies toward South Asia, bilateral relationships will grow increasingly transactional.

What Trump's Second Term Means for South Asia

Pakistan's president administers the oath of office to Justice Yahya Afridi as Afridi is sworn in as chief justice in Islamabad on Oct. 26, 2024.

The reform will allow the government to appoint Supreme Court justices who support its agenda, weakening judicial independence while likely fueling political tensions and protests.

The Implications of Pakistan's Controversial Judicial Reform

Israel's Iron Dome air defense system intercepts rockets fired from southern Lebanon on Sept. 27, 2024, over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel. The Security Cabinet of Israel has yet to decide exactly how to retaliate against Iran for its Oct. 1 missile barrage against the country, but Israel clearly is seeking U.S. approval for an operation that might yet pull the U.S. back into active defense.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Shanghai Cooperation Organization Meeting, Chinese Financial Support Measures

A man looks at damage from a Balochistan Liberation Army attack Jan. 30 in central Bolan district in Balochistan province, Pakistan. Economic and political constraints will limit the scale and efficacy of Pakistan's latest counterterrorism campaign, sustaining the threat of militant attacks and delays to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor despite likely efforts to bolster foreigners' security and engagement with key foreign stakeholders.

Economic and political constraints will limit the scale and efficacy of Pakistan's latest counterterrorism campaign, sustaining the threat of militant attacks and delays to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor despite likely efforts to bolster foreigners' security and engagement with key foreign stakeholders.

The Implications of Pakistan's Renewed Counterterrorism Campaign

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

A delegation of Afghan Taliban officials walks down a hotel lobby in Doha, Qatar, in August 2021. 

A combination of security considerations and economic opportunities will continue to ease the Afghan Taliban's international isolation in the years ahead, but many countries will remain wary of close relations with the group or its formal recognition.

The Afghan Taliban's International Isolation Appears To Be Easing

A welcoming billboard displaying an image of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (left) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is seen along a street in Karachi, Pakistan, on April 22, 2024. 

Pakistan and Iran's embattled pipeline project, which has faced delays amid funding issues and U.S. sanction concerns, could impede recent efforts to boost bilateral cooperation.

For Pakistan and Iran, a Delayed Pipeline Could Undermine Improved Relations

Snapshots

People gather outside the provincial legislature of Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly in Peshawar on Feb. 28, 2024. 

The delay may mar the upper house's credibility and cause political instability, but it is unlikely to significantly impede policymaking.


The Impact of Pakistan's Delayed Senate Formation

Then-Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (right) and then-Pakistani Finance Minister Ishaq Dar (left) address a press conference in Lahore on June 30, 2023, after the signing of a staff-level agreement with the IMF.

Islamabad will likely secure the final tranche of its current stand-by arrangement, and potentially a new IMF bailout, but the government may struggle to enact related economic reforms.

The Outlook of Pakistan-IMF Engagement

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Chinese officials at the Fifth Plenary Session of the National People's Congress on March 12, 2023 in Beijing. Beijing will host the annual Two Sessions meetings of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, an industry and societal consultative body, and the rubberstamp National People's Congress from March 4-11.

The Weekly Rundown: Pakistan Selects a New Premier, China's Two Sessions

Former Pakistani Prime Minister and leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party, Shehbaz Sharif (center) speaks during a press conference in Lahore on Feb. 13, 2024. 

Grievances related to the contentious Feb. 8 election will likely continue to drive protests and threaten the new coalition's stability.

The Challenges Facing Pakistan's New Government

Pakistan is located in South Asia and is bordered by Iran, Afghanistan, China and India. To the north are the Himalayan Mountains, which branch off into the Hindu Kush range. To the southwest is the vast Balochistan Plateau, which is arid and sparsely populated. In the south is the Thar Desert and a 650-mile coast along the Arabian sea. The Indus River begins in the Tibetan Plateau and cuts through the country’s eastern half.  The river nourishes the fertile plains of the Punjab, the country’s populous core region and its political and economic heartland.    Pakistan’s primary geographic challenge arises from its borders, which do not correspond to natural geographic boundaries. The modern borders of Pakistan were created in 1947, when the nation was carved out of the Muslim-majority northwest and northeast portions of India. The countries have fought three wars since independence, and each claims the territory of Kashmir. Bangladesh, then known as “East Pakistan,” gained independence from Pakistan in 1971 with India’s help.  This reinforced the notion within Pakistan that India was an existential threat. Pakistan has long sought to gain influence in Afghanistan, both to secure strategic depth and to prevent Kabul from falling into New Delhi’s orbit.    On the west, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan — called the Durand Line — has remained contentious since the British created it in 1893. Kabul claims that Afghanistan’s true boundary runs deep into Pakistan to absorb the Pashtun tribal belt divided between both countries. The mountainous terrain has made the region difficult to govern, ensuring that the border remains porous.  

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

The Politics of Pipelines

South Asian Militancy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

SITUATION REPORTS

Pakistan: Khan Sentenced to 14 Years in Prison Over Corruption

Pakistan: World Bank Unveils 10-Year Plan for $20B

Pakistan: Opposition Leader Khan Orders PTI To Proceed With Government Talks

Pakistan: UAE To Extend $2B Payment Deadline for Pakistan

Afghanistan, Pakistan: Afghan Taliban Official Says Group Seeks De-Escalation After Retaliating Against Pakistani Strikes

Bangladesh: India Claims Pakistan Will Provide Military Training to Bangladesh

Pakistan: Pakistan's Military Court Sentences 60 More Civilians to Prison Terms of up to 10 Years

Pakistan: Country Confirms It Conducted Airstrikes on Militant Camps in Afghanistan

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