Ukraine

Russia

Military & Security

Politics

At the Valdai Discussion Club, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia has "no aggressive intentions" toward NATO, dismissing Western concerns as "hysteria" and telling Europeans to "calm down, sleep tight, and deal with your own issues," The New York Times reported on Oct. 2.

Russia: Putin Denies NATO Threat While Drones Test Europe's Defenses

Pakistan

The first round of talks on Oct. 2 between a Pakistani government delegation and protesters in Pakistan-administered Kashmir failed to break an impasse over protesters' demands for authorities to limit local officials' benefits, which many residents allege are being provided at the expense of local services, Arab News Pakistan reported on Oct. 3.

Pakistan: Talks Between Government and Protesters Fail After Deadly Unrest

China

Myanmar

Myanmar's military claimed the full recapture of Kyaukme, a key district capital in Shan state along National Highway 3, the main trade route linking Mandalay to China, AP reported on Oct. 2. 

Myanmar: Junta Recaptures Key Township Ahead of December Elections

Afghanistan

Afghanistan's fiber-optic telecommunications network was restored the evening of Oct. 1, easing nationwide disruptions to internet, phone and other services that had resulted from the Taliban's shutdown of the network on Sept. 29, Tolo News has reported.

Afghanistan: Telecommunications Network Reportedly Restored After Taliban's Shutdown

United States

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The United States agreed to give Ukraine targeting data to help guide long-range missile strikes against Russian energy sites, The Wall Street Journal reported Oct. 1.

Ukraine: U.S. Expands Intelligence Support for Strikes Inside Russia

Australia

Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape announced that his Cabinet had approved a mutual defense treaty with Australia, pending parliamentary approval, Reuters reported on Oct. 2.

Australia, Papua New Guinea: Defense Agreement Signed, Leaves Door Open to China

Cambodia

Thailand

State-owned Khmer Times stated on Oct. 2 that Cambodian officials had invited Thai forces to hold three Regional Border Committee (RBC) meetings between local border defense groups, scheduled for Oct. 4-6, Oct. 7-9, and Oct. 10-12 -- all to be held in Cambodian provinces. The report did not indicate any response from Thai authorities.

Thailand, Cambodia: Border Meetings Proposed Amid Eviction Deadlines

France

Economics

A new wave of strikes and demonstrations broke out across France on Oct. 2 in response to planned spending cuts in the government's 2026 budget, France24 reported the same day.

France: Budget Cuts Spark New Wave of Nationwide Strikes and Demonstrations

The world is connected, but even the broadest topics deserve an individual look. Below are our latest and most relevant military analyses. 

Below are our latest and most relevant military analyses. 

Sub-Saharan Africa

Americas

Asia-Pacific

Europe

Eurasia

Middle East and North Africa

South Asia

The Syrian Civil War

The Yemen Civil War

The Libyan Civil War

The Fight Against the Islamic State

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

The India-Pakistan Rivalry

Cyber

The Ukraine Conflict

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

The Battle for Mosul

Rebalancing Power in the Middle East

Coping With a Nuclear North Korea

The Jihadist Wars

Echoes of the Cold War

Instability in Central Asia

South Asian Militancy

Pakistan: A Military With a Country

Assessments

Bahrain

Iran

Israel

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks to U.S. and Qatari military personnel at the Al Udeid Air Base in Doha, Qatar, on May 15, 2025.

The U.S. president's pledge to defend Qatar may deter future Israeli attacks, but it is unlikely to deter Iranian aggression or allay Gulf states' greater concerns about Washington's commitment to their security.

Trump's Security Guarantees for Qatar Unlikely To Offer Enough Reassurance

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Rwanda

The Geopolitics of Trade

Global Trade

Persistent conflict and armed group control in the Democratic Republic of the Congo will sustain significant legal, financial and reputational pressures on companies sourcing critical minerals from the region for the foreseeable future.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Due Diligence and Congo's Critical Minerals

Columns

On Geopolitics

Palestinian Territories

U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu participate in a press conference in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 29, 2025. 

The once-unshakable consensus on Israel within U.S. politics is fracturing under the weight of generational change, a growing values gap and a misalignment of geopolitical imperatives.

'A Little Sparta': Why the U.S.-Israeli Relationship Is Destined To Change 

Japan

The candidates running in the leadership election of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party -- (from left to right) Takayuki Kobayashi, Toshimitsu Motegi, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Sanae Takaichi and Shinjiro Koizumi -- pose after delivering speeches at the kick-off of the campaign in Tokyo on Sept. 22, 2025. 

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party's Oct. 4 vote for party president and therefore prime minister will influence the trajectory of Japan's fiscal policy and foreign relations.

Japan's LDP Leadership Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Media

Forecast Webcast

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast Webcast

U.S.-China Relations

The U.N. Security Council holds a meeting on Iran at the U.N. headquarters in New York City, New York, on Sept. 19, 2025. 

Energy

The increased isolation will make Iran more reliant on China and Russia, while the added economic strain could fuel domestic protests and empower Iranian hard-liners calling for more aggressive action against the West.

U.N. Sanctions Snapback: What's Next for Iran?

U.S.-Iran Relations

A Polish-made FlyEye V3.0 drone is displayed during the Iron Defender-25 media day on Sept. 18, 2025, in Nowa Deba, Poland. 

European efforts to fast-track a sophisticated anti-drone system will unlock major contracts for defense firms, but the vast scale of the project will leave Europe exposed to Russian provocations for years.

EU 'Drone Wall' Plans Will Take Years To Materialize, Leaving Continent Vulnerable in the Meantime

The fourth quarter will bring shifting trade tactics, evolving wars, and pivotal elections and flashpoints worldwide that will test governments’ stability and market confidence.

2025 Fourth-Quarter Forecast: An Excerpt

Denmark

Moldova

Representatives are pictured ahead of a working session during the informal EU foreign ministers' meeting in Copenhagen, Denmark, on Aug. 30, 2025.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: EU Leaders Meet in Denmark, Moldova Elects a New Parliament

Syria

Turkey

Israeli military vehicles drive along a border fence, near the town of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights, on July 17, 2025. 

Syria and Israel will likely ink a security pact to ease border tensions before the end of the year, but the deal's likely narrow scope and other unresolved disputes will keep it fragile.

The Implications of a Syria-Israel De-Escalation Agreement

United Kingdom

Dignitaries attend a U.N. Security Council meeting on the situation in the Middle East, including the question of Palestinian statehood, during the U.N. General Assembly on Sept. 23, 2025, in New York City. 

Western countries' growing recognition of Palestinian statehood is largely symbolic and will likely galvanize Israel's push for West Bank annexation, risking further Israeli diplomatic isolation abroad and sporadic violence at home.

The West's Growing Support for Palestinian Statehood Will Have Limited Concrete Impacts

On Security

An aerial view of the IAD71 Amazon Web Services data center is seen on July 17, 2024, in Ashburn, Virginia. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Social Issues

AI's displacement of workers, the environmental impact of data centers and fears of pervasive surveillance are creating a potent mix of grievances likely to fuel violent extremism against targets associated with the technology.

The Coming Violent Backlash Against AI

Military & Security

SITUATION REPORTS

Russia: Putin Denies NATO Threat While Drones Test Europe's Defenses

Pakistan: Talks Between Government and Protesters Fail After Deadly Unrest

Myanmar: Junta Recaptures Key Township Ahead of December Elections

Afghanistan: Telecommunications Network Reportedly Restored After Taliban's Shutdown

Ukraine: U.S. Expands Intelligence Support for Strikes Inside Russia

Australia, Papua New Guinea: Defense Agreement Signed, Leaves Door Open to China

Thailand, Cambodia: Border Meetings Proposed Amid Eviction Deadlines

France: Budget Cuts Spark New Wave of Nationwide Strikes and Demonstrations

Forecasts

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