Poland

Russia

Military & Security

Poland will close the Russian consulate in Krakow after obtaining evidence that Moscow's intelligence services were behind a major arson attack at a Warsaw mall last May, Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski announced in a post on X on May 12.

Poland, Russia: Warsaw Closes Russian Consulate Over Sabotage Accusations

Germany

France

Economics

Energy

Politics

France and Poland signed a wide-ranging bilateral defense, economic and energy cooperation treaty on May 9 in Nancy, France, Reuters reported the same day.

France, Poland: Governments Pledge Defense Cooperation, Nuclear-Sharing Discussions

Slovakia

Ukraine

European natural gas prices are fluctuating near monthly highs in anticipation for the Ukraine-Russia gas transit agreement's expiration on Dec. 31 and colder weather in the coming days and weeks, Bloomberg reported Dec. 30.

EU, Russia, Ukraine: Volatile European Gas Prices Ahead of Anticipated End to Ukraine-Russia Transit Agreement

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to Warsaw, Poland, on Dec. 12 to discuss with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk the hypothetical deployment of a post-war peacekeeping force to Ukraine that would preserve Ukrainian sovereignty in the event of a deal between incoming U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Russia-Ukraine war, Politico reported on Dec. 11.

Ukraine, France: Macron To Pitch Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Post-War Security Guarantee

Americas

Europe

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he will not endorse a free trade agreement close to finalization between the European Union and the Mercosur trade bloc, joining French President Emmanuel Macron in his vocal opposition to the deal, the Financial Times reported Nov. 27.

Poland: Country Joins France in Open Opposition to EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Social Issues

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Oct. 12 that Poland will temporarily suspend the right to claim asylum in the country and will not implement the European Union's new migration and asylum pact during a rally of his Civic Platform (KO) party, the largest in Poland's ruling coalition, Reuters reported Oct. 14.

Poland: Tusk Proposes Temporary Suspension of Asylum Rights

India

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine on Aug. 23 for the first time since the Russia-Ukraine war began, likely later the week of Aug. 19, The Times of India reported on Aug. 19.

India: Prime Minister Modi To Visit Ukraine and Poland

The German authorities issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian man in connection to the 2022 attack on Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea, Reuters reported on Aug. 14, citing a spokesperson for the Polish prosecutor's office, which has received the request from Berlin.

Germany, Ukraine: Germany Issued Arrest Warrant for Ukrainian Citizen Over Nord Stream Sabotage

Assessments

Supporters of the PiS party demonstrate April 12 in Warsaw, Poland. Poland will hold a presidential election May 18 and runoff June 1 if no candidate obtains more than 50% in the first round.

Global Elections

The outcome of Poland's election will determine whether Prime Minister Donald Tusk's centrist government will coexist with a cooperative president or continue to face institutional constraints from an ideologically opposed president.

Poland's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Columns

On Geopolitics

United States

United Kingdom

Spain

Italy

NATO military forces during static display after the Steadfast Dart 2025 military exercises at the Smardan Training Area in Smardan, Romania, on Feb. 19, 2025. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Europe is increasingly focused on achieving greater strategic autonomy in defense, but internal divisions and material constraints will plague this quest, even as the United States' role on the Continent continues to shrink, meaning NATO will likely remain the cornerstone of Europe’s security architecture. 

The Future of Transatlantic Security Cooperation, Part 2: The View From Europe

Bolivia

Moldova

A natural gas distribution hub is seen near Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Poland Assumes the EU Presidency, Russia-Ukraine Gas Transit Deal Expires

Snapshots

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on July 2 in Warsaw.

Poland's ongoing political volatility will continue to create policy and economic uncertainty leading up to the presidential election in mid-2025. If this persists after the election, it could have long-term negative effects on the country's appeal to investors.

Political Polarization Fuels Uncertainty Ahead of Poland's 2025 Presidential Election

Iran

Israel

Japan

Philippines

South Korea

People attend an April 5, 2024, funeral procession for seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in an Israeli strike in Syria.

U.S.-China Relations

The Weekly Rundown: The Threat of Iranian Retaliation Against Israel, Polish Local Elections

Polish President Andrzej Duda (left) and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (right) shake hands during their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Warsaw, Poland, on Jan. 15, 2024. 

Growing tensions between the new government and key institutions still loyal to its predecessor will fuel political instability and may ultimately threaten Warsaw's plans to unlock frozen EU funds.

A Rough Power Transition Thrusts Poland Into a Political Crisis

Burkina Faso

Mali

Niger

South Africa

Argentina

Mexico

Palestinian Territories

Turkey

Hong Kong SAR, China

China

Taiwan

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

Pakistan

In this scorecard, we take a critical look at our successes and slip-ups in forecasting geopolitical events over the past year.

Grading Our 2023 Annual Forecast

Luxembourg

Lithuania

Malta

Finland

Latvia

Czech Republic

Greece

Estonia

Sweden

Belgium

Bulgaria

Portugal

Romania

Croatia

Cyprus

Austria

Slovenia

Netherlands

Ireland

Hungary

Members of the European Parliament take part in voting on the Artificial Intelligence Act during a plenary session at the European Parliament.

Cyber

The EU's recently negotiated Artificial Intelligence Act will bolster the European Union's dominance as a regulatory heavyweight in emerging technologies, yet anticipated enforcement challenges and stringent stipulations with the Act risk impeding AI innovation within the bloc.

EU Lawmakers Clinch Agreement on Artificial Intelligence Act 

Posters for parliamentary candidates ahead of Poland's Oct. 10, 2023, election in Lodz, Poland.

A new centrist government would significantly improve relations with the European Union, allowing the country to continue playing an increasingly central role in the bloc.

Parliamentary Elections May Move Poland Closer to Brussels

Ecuador

New Zealand

Israeli army Merkava battle tanks deploy Oct. 13, 2023, with the Gaza Strip in southern Israel. An invasion will greatly exacerbate the hardships caused by Israel's total siege of the strip, creating a humanitarian crisis that could cause Egypt to use force to ensure that Palestinian refugees do not enter Sinai.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Ground Invasion, a Parliamentary Election in Poland

Denmark

Rail cars loaded with steel sit at the ThyssenKrupp Schwelgern steel plant on May 30, 2018 in Duisburg, Germany. 

The European Union and the United States will increase efforts to deconflict their trade and climate policies ahead of the upcoming U.S. presidential and EU parliamentary elections, but lingering disagreements will not allow for a complete respite of Trump-era tariffs on EU steel and aluminum.

EU-U.S. Steel and Aluminum Negotiations Make Limited Headway

Solar panels on Aug. 9, 2023, in Neuss, Germany.

Resistance to environmental initiatives in Europe will likely continue beyond the 2024 EU elections, portending less ambitious climate targets and greater protectionism.

Europe Faces a Less Ambitious Environmental Agenda

<p>Poland sits at the crossroads of Eastern and Western Europe. Located on the Northern European Plain, the country has a largely flat terrain with few geographic barriers &mdash; with the exception of the Baltic Sea to the north and the Carpathian Mountains in the extreme south. From the 15th to the 18th century, Poland was among the largest and most influential states in Europe. As the leading power of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Poland controlled territory that includes modern day Belarus, Ukraine, the Baltic states, and parts of western Russia. However, the emergence of Germanic powers to the west and Russia to the east proved disastrous for Poland, as the country was partitioned between the Russian, Prussian, and Austrian Empires at the end of the 18th century. Poland was then the setting of numerous wars for influence among European powers, proving a key battleground during World War I and II before being swept into the Soviet bloc during the Cold War. Poland returned to the Western fold once the Soviet Union collapsed, with the country joining NATO in 1999 and the European Union in 2004. Since then, Poland &mdash; with its demographic and industrial core in Warsaw &mdash; has been one of the most economically dynamic countries of the former Eastern bloc. The current crisis in Ukraine, as well as Poland&#39;s continued fear of Russia, has made Warsaw a pivotal player in the standoff between Moscow and the West. The country has sought to strengthen the presence of NATO on its territory and is a key part of the bloc&#39;s ballistic missile defense program. Poland has also sought to bring key countries in the former Soviet periphery, most notably Ukraine, closer to the West. Using these strategies to maintain territorial integrity is Poland&rsquo;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Poland, Russia: Warsaw Closes Russian Consulate Over Sabotage Accusations

France, Poland: Governments Pledge Defense Cooperation, Nuclear-Sharing Discussions

EU, Russia, Ukraine: Volatile European Gas Prices Ahead of Anticipated End to Ukraine-Russia Transit Agreement

Ukraine, France: Macron To Pitch Deployment to Ukraine as Part of Post-War Security Guarantee

Poland: Country Joins France in Open Opposition to EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Poland: Tusk Proposes Temporary Suspension of Asylum Rights

India: Prime Minister Modi To Visit Ukraine and Poland

Germany, Ukraine: Germany Issued Arrest Warrant for Ukrainian Citizen Over Nord Stream Sabotage

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