France

Economics

Politics

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou announced during his inaugural policy speech in the National Assembly that he would "renegotiate" President Emmanuel Macron's contentious pension reform with labor unions and opposition parties in the coming months, but he stated the pension law would continue to apply in its current form without an agreement, Reuters reported on Jan. 14.

France: Government Opens to Renegotiation of Macron's Pension Reform

Syria

Europe

Germany

Italy

Energy

During a meeting between European, U.S. and Arab diplomats, Syrian and Saudi officials called on Western governments to ease sanctions on Syria, and European diplomats agreed to discuss sanctions relief in Syria during a Jan. 27 foreign ministers meeting, Al Jazeera reported on Jan. 12.

Syria: Arab Diplomats Call on EU To Ease Sanctions on Syria

Sub-Saharan Africa

Chad

Ethiopia

Nigeria

Senegal

Military & Security

French President Emmanuel Macron said France had decided to withdraw from military facilities in West and Central Africa on its own initiative, triggering spats with Senegal and Chad, Radio France Internationale reported on Jan. 7.

France, Africa: Macron Stresses France Initiated Military Drawdowns, Outlines New Approach to Africa  

French Finance Minister Eric Lombard announced plans to slow the pace of deficit reduction slightly -- targeting a 2025 deficit of 5.5% of gross domestic product, just above the previous 5% goal -- to "protect growth" through fewer spending cuts and tax hikes, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 6, citing Lombard’s comments to France Inter radio. 

France: New Government Offers Slower Pace of Deficit Reduction

Cote d'Ivoire

Gabon

Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara announced in his New Year's address that France would hand over its Port Bouet military base near Abidjan to the Ivorian military by the end of January, Le Monde reported on Jan. 1.

Cote d'Ivoire: President Ouattara Announces France Will Cede Military Base

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has unveiled his government, which consists mostly of centrist and conservative lawmakers, Reuters reported on Dec. 23.

France: French Prime Minister Bayrou Unveils His Government

France's National Assembly unanimously voted in support of a "special law" authorizing the government to continue collecting taxes and renew state spending at the 2024 level until a new budget for 2025 is adopted, Le Figaro reported on Dec. 16.

France: National Assembly Unanimously Supports Temporary 2024 Budget Roll-Over

President Emmanuel Macron appointed centrist Francois Bayrou as France's new prime minister, Le Figaro reported on Dec. 13. 

France: President Macron Appoints Centrist Francois Bayrou as Prime Minister

Assessments

Mozambique

Anti-riot police officers with dogs walk past burning barricades made by protesters in Maputo, Mozambique, on Nov. 7, 2024. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A New French Government, a Ruling on Mozambique's Disputed Election

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Paraguay

Uruguay

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Ghana

Iran

Turkey

South Korea

Russia

Protesters call for the ouster of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol outside the National Assembly in Seoul on Dec. 6, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Vote in South Korea, Syria's Government Wavers

Snapshots

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers a speech at the National Assembly, the French Parliament's lower house, in Paris on Dec. 2, 2024.

France faces heightened political instability as no-confidence votes threaten the government following Prime Minister Barnier's use of Article 49.3 to pass the 2025 budget without parliamentary approval.

Barnier's Budget Gambit Triggers Political Showdown in French Parliament

United States

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

The U.S. and EU flags.

Cyber

Global Elections

Donald Trump's return to the U.S. presidency is set to disrupt trans-Atlantic relations, likely escalating trade tensions, weakening already limited cooperation on climate and tech policy, and straining EU unity on defense and support for Ukraine. 

What Trump's Return to Office Means for the European Union

Columns

On Geopolitics

With both nations looking inward in 2025, the European Union will be deprived of its central leadership, leaving it without clear strategic direction or decisive policymaking.

French and German Struggles Leave the EU Adrift

Media

Mexico

China

Forecast Webcast

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2024 Fourth-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

A Russian warship transits the Neva River in Saint Petersburg, Russia.

Russia's risk tolerance for physical and cyber operations against Western targets appears to be increasing, raising the likelihood of more disruptive and/or violent attacks.

A More Brazen Russia Slowly Raises the Specter of a NATO Confrontation

Incoming Prime Minister Michel Barnier (R) delivers a speech next to outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal on Sept. 5 in Paris. Barnier will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly.

France's new prime minister will struggle to pass legislation in a highly fragmented National Assembly. While the government will still have options to reduce the country's fiscal deficit and avoid a financial crisis, these would come at the cost of severe social unrest and political volatility.

France's New Prime Minister Will Struggle to Pass Laws and Avoid Financial Woes

Cambodia

Japan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Afghanistan

The Geopolitics of Water

The escalating impacts of climate change and water scarcity will inflame tensions between Central Asian countries, raising the risk of violent state conflict in the coming decades. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Looming Threat of Central Asian 'Water Wars'

Denmark

Sweden

Norway

Austria

Slovenia

Hungarian police officers check cars at the Nickelsdorf-Hegyeshalom border crossing on the Austrian-Hungarian border on March 18, 2020. 

Increasing levels of migration, terrorism activity and Russian aggression in Europe are driving Schengen countries to tighten their border controls, heralding a more spotty functioning of the passport-free travel zone.

Growing Border Controls Threaten Europe's Schengen Area

<p>France is a country in Western Europe bound in the south by the Alps, Pyrenees Mountains and the Mediterranean Sea. To the west and north is the Atlantic Ocean, and on its eastern border lies the river Rhine and the low mountains of the Ardennes, Vosges and Jura. Mountains, rivers and seas help protect France at all points but one: the North European Plain. As a result, France&#39;s main geographic challenge is safeguarding its eastern border on the path of this historic invasion route. The lack of internal geographic barriers contributed to France&#39;s social cohesion, which in turn led France to become one of the world&#39;s first modern nation-states. The Beauce region represents France&#39;s core. Its navigable rivers, warm climate, sufficient rainfall and fertile soils have made France one of the world&#39;s leading agricultural powers. At the extreme northern border of the Beauce region, where the rivers Marne and Seine meet, lies Paris &mdash; France&#39;s economic and political center. Paris&#39; strategic location on these rivers gives it administrative control of trading routes from the Beauce region to the rest of France and Europe In modern times, the most existential threats to France have come from its powerful eastern neighbor, Germany. Between 1871 and 1945, France and Germany fought three major wars &mdash; all on the North European Plain. After World War II, France attempted to contain Germany largely through the creation of the European Union. The economic and political crisis plaguing Europe has put France&#39;s containment strategy into question.</p>

EU: Regional Blocs

Divided EU Foreign Policies

The Fate of the Eurozone

European Disintegration

SITUATION REPORTS

France: Government Opens to Renegotiation of Macron's Pension Reform

Syria: Arab Diplomats Call on EU To Ease Sanctions on Syria

France, Africa: Macron Stresses France Initiated Military Drawdowns, Outlines New Approach to Africa

France: New Government Offers Slower Pace of Deficit Reduction

Cote d'Ivoire: President Ouattara Announces France Will Cede Military Base

France: French Prime Minister Bayrou Unveils His Government

France: National Assembly Unanimously Supports Temporary 2024 Budget Roll-Over

France: President Macron Appoints Centrist Francois Bayrou as Prime Minister

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