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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's advisers are developing two sanctions strategies to facilitate an agreement resolving the Russia-Ukraine war, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 16. 

U.S., Russia: Trump's Advisors Prepare Sanctions Strategy for Negotiations With Russia 

United Kingdom

Military & Security

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, where the two leaders signed a "100 Year Partnership" agreement on military, technology and energy cooperation, Reuters reported on Jan. 16. 

Ukraine, U.K.: Starmer Meets With Zelensky, Underscores Support for Ukraine

Moldova

After returning from a trip to Moscow, the president of Moldova's separatist-controlled breakaway region of Transdniestria, Vadim Krasnoselsky, told reporters he had negotiated a resumption of gas supplies with Russian energy officials, Reuters reported on Jan. 15.

Moldova: Transdniestrian Leader Says Russia Will Restore Gas Supplies Soon

The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched more than 200 drones and other munitions against military facilities and infrastructure deep inside Russia, making it the largest Ukrainian air attack in terms of the number of drones since the beginning of the war, Agentstvo reported Jan. 14.

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Conducts Largest Drone Attack Yet Against Russian Infrastructure, Military Facilities

Incoming U.S. national security adviser Mike Waltz laid out several points of the incoming Trump administration's approach to the Russia-Ukraine war, most notably a request for Ukraine to lower its mobilization age from the current 25 to 18, ABC News reported on Jan. 12.

Ukraine: U.S. National Security Adviser Pushes Ukraine To Lower Mobilization Age

The week from Dec. 30 to Jan. 5 marked Russia's slowest rate of advance in Ukraine since July, while in December, the Russian military halved the rate of its offensive advances in Ukraine compared with the previous month, Agentstvo reported on Jan. 6. 

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Seizes Kurakhove Despite Slowing Rate of Advance

Austria

Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen has tasked Herbert Kickl, leader of the far-right Freedom Party (FPO), with forming a new government following the collapse of coalition talks between centrist parties last week, Politico reported Jan. 6. 

Austria: Far-Right Leader Herbert Kickl Tasked With Forming New Government Following Collapse of Centrist Coalition Talks

Slovakia

Slovakia's government is weighing possible retaliatory measures against Ukraine after Kyiv's refusal to extend a transit agreement with Russia's Gazprom to transport Russian natural gas to Slovakia through its territory, Reuters reported Jan. 2.

Slovakia, Ukraine: Slovak PM Fico Threatens Retaliatory Action Against Ukraine Over Russian Gas Transit Halt

Columns

On Geopolitics

Europe

Germany

A compressor gas station of the Yamal–Europe pipeline is seen on Feb. 19, 2022, in Wloclawek, Poland. 

The expiration of the Russia-Ukraine transit deal underscores Europe's ongoing efforts to sever its reliance on Russian resources, with far-reaching implications for energy markets and geopolitics in the region and beyond. 

The End of Russian Gas via Ukraine Cements Europe's New Energy Landscape

Assessments

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Palestinian Territories

North Korea

As 2025 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five events as measured by geopolitical impact.

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Elections

Science & Technology

2024: A Geopolitical Review

Bolivia

Poland

A natural gas distribution hub is seen near Vienna, Austria, on Nov. 16, 2024.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Poland Assumes the EU Presidency, Russia-Ukraine Gas Transit Deal Expires

Russian troops gather around their military vehicles in northeast Syria on Nov. 1, 2019. 

The collapse of Assad's government in Syria is a blow to the Kremlin's influence in the Middle East and its credibility as a security partner, which will further drive Russia to secure a resounding victory in Ukraine.

What Assad's Fall Means for Russia

Namibia

Tanzania

Uruguay

Kazakhstan

The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet Nov. 26 to discuss Russia's first use of an experimental ballistic missile on Ukrainian territory, which on Nov. 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed involved a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as "Oreshnik."

The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan

People walk by destroyed houses in Pokrovsk, Ukraine, on Nov. 16, 2024.

Trump's victory has accelerated the timeline for an end to the war, though it also appears likely a cease-fire will happen on Russia's terms and may not lead to sustainable peace.

The Growing Prospect of a Cease-Fire in Ukraine

Snapshots

France

Debris lies in the courtyard of a damaged house following a missile attack at an undisclosed location in Ukraine's Odesa region on Nov. 17, 2024.

The U.S. decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with ATACMS missiles signals a policy shift but is unlikely to change the war's trajectory.

U.S. Greenlights Limited Ukrainian Strikes Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

On April 16, 2024, 155mm caliber shells are shown after manufacturing, ready for shipment at the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant (SCAAP) in Scranton, Pennsylvania.

Trump's return to the White House and North Korean support for Russia have shifted the conflict's dynamics, likely portending a further weakened position for Kyiv.

Bracing for a Protracted War in Ukraine: The Narrowing Path to a Ukrainian Victory

Russia and Ukraine flags on a cracked wall with the silhouettes of soldiers.

With likely reduced U.S. support, Russia may push for more territory and pressure Kyiv to negotiate as Moscow welcomes Trump's victory.

How the U.S. Election Will Impact the War in Ukraine

Former U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during an election event in the early hours of Nov. 6, 2024.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

U.S.-China Relations

U.S.-Iran Relations

Trump will place more tariffs on U.S. trade partners and reduce support for Ukraine, but he will largely maintain Biden's approach to the U.S. tech rivalry with China and the Middle East conflict.

Trump's Win Will Ripple Across the World

Azerbaijan

A natural gas compressor station is pictured on the grounds of the Baltic Sea gas pipeline prior to its opening ceremony in Budno near Goleniow, Poland. 

Despite strong interest in a deal from all parties, constraints may sink negotiations on further Russian gas transit through Ukraine. 

Ukraine Seeks Gas Transit Agreement With Azerbaijan as Gazprom Deal Nears Expiry

<p>Ukraine is the quintessential borderland state. The country borders three former Soviet states (Russia, Belarus and Moldova) and four countries in the European Union (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania). Ukraine also has a coastline along the Black Sea to the south. Ukraine sits on the Northern European Plain, the area that has historically served as an invasion superhighway going east and west. Beyond its strategic location, Ukraine&#39;s geography has only facilitated such invasions. The country consists of flat and fertile plains, with the exception of the Carpathian Mountain range that arches into the far west of the country. But even these mountains can be penetrated and have not posed a significant barrier to invasion. Given such lack of barriers, Ukraine&#39;s wide-open geography is inextricably linked to that of Russia. Ukraine&#39;s agricultural and industrial belts have traditionally been integrated with Russia&#39;s, and Ukraine serves as the primary transit state for Russian energy exports to Europe. Due to its location and abundance of agricultural and mineral resources, Ukraine has been contested between regional powers for centuries. This competition is currently playing out in an extreme form today, with a Western-backed government confronting a Russian-backed uprising in eastern Ukraine. Further complicating the situation is the fact that Ukraine has several population and political cores, including Lviv in the west, Kiev in the center and the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk. These different cores make administering Ukraine difficult. The current crisis in Ukraine is therefore merely the latest iteration of the country&#39;s internal divisions and the long-standing East-West conflict over the country. Maintaining sovereignty and unity in the face of this competition is Ukraine&#39;s primary geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Russia: Trump's Advisors Prepare Sanctions Strategy for Negotiations With Russia

Ukraine, U.K.: Starmer Meets With Zelensky, Underscores Support for Ukraine

Moldova: Transdniestrian Leader Says Russia Will Restore Gas Supplies Soon

Russia, Ukraine: Ukraine Conducts Largest Drone Attack Yet Against Russian Infrastructure, Military Facilities

Ukraine: U.S. National Security Adviser Pushes Ukraine To Lower Mobilization Age

Russia, Ukraine: Russia Seizes Kurakhove Despite Slowing Rate of Advance

Austria: Far-Right Leader Herbert Kickl Tasked With Forming New Government Following Collapse of Centrist Coalition Talks

Slovakia, Ukraine: Slovak PM Fico Threatens Retaliatory Action Against Ukraine Over Russian Gas Transit Halt

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