Russia

Kyrgyzstan

Economics

Politics

Kyrgyzstan's parliament passed a Russian-style foreign agents law, which President Sadyr Japarov will likely sign into law soon, Eurasianet reported on March 14.

Kyrgyzstan: Parliament Passes Controversial Foreign Agents Law

Iran

Turkey

China

Europe

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

At the Investors Forum for EU-Central Asia Transport Connectivity, European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis announced that European and international financial institutions will commit 10 billion euros ($10.84 billion) toward sustainable transport connectivity in Central Asia, Interfax reported on Jan. 29.

EU, Central Asia: EU-Central Asia Forum Pledges $10.8B for Transport Connectivity

Environment, Science & Technology

Military & Security

Science & Technology

The heads of the security services of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan said negotiators made a breakthrough regarding the operation of roads connecting the countries to their respective enclaves and isolated territories, Eurasianet reported on Dec. 4.

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Negotiators Reach Breakthrough on Border Demarcation

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the Commonwealth of Independent States heads of state summit that took place in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Reuters reported on Oct. 12.

Russia: Putin Attends CIS Summit Authorizing Observer and Partner Status

Energy

Kyrgyzstan's energy ministry signed investment deals worth $2.4-3 billion with a Chinese consortium to build the Kazarman cascade hydropower project, RFERL reported on Aug. 1.

Kyrgyzstan: Government Inks Large Chinese Investments in Hydroelectric Power

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said the public has no reason to worry about a decree he signed on July 24 introducing a state of emergency in the energy sector from Aug. 1, 2023, to Dec. 31, 2026, Anadolu Agency reported on July 26.

Kyrgyzstan: Japarov Downplays Energy Sector Emergency Through 2026

Social Issues

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov proposed a new bill that would allow him to review and overrule rulings of the Constitutional Court on the basis of morality and ethical values, Eurasianet reported on July 19.

Kyrgyzstan: President Proposes Executive Review Powers on Constitutional Court Rulings

United States

The United States is preparing new economic measures to pressure Central Asian countries into preventing firms from using their jurisdictions to export sanctioned goods to Russia, The Washington Post reported on July 19. 

U.S., Central Asia: Washington Prepares Measures Against Central Asia for Sanctions Busting

Assessments

Cambodia

Japan

Germany

France

Afghanistan

The Geopolitics of Water

The escalating impacts of climate change and water scarcity will inflame tensions between Central Asian countries, raising the risk of violent state conflict in the coming decades. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Looming Threat of Central Asian 'Water Wars'

Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov on Dec. 15, 2023, in in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan.

Democratic backsliding will likely complicate government efforts to attract Western investment, but could portend improved relations with neighbors and Russia and China.

Gauging the Implications of Kyrgyzstan's Democratic Backsliding

A Kyrgyz serviceman at the Kyrgyz-Tajik border Sept. 20, 2022, in Min-Bulak, Kyrgyzstan. A border demarcation deal between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan would reduce the risk of a larger conflict between the countries in the years to come, ultimately boosting regional economic prospects and transit connectivity, as well as the credibility of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Such a deal would reduce the risk of a conflict between the two, boosting regional economic prospects along with the credibility of the Russia-led CSTO.

How a Border Deal Between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan Could Benefit Central Asia

Snapshots

U.S. President Joe Biden (C) and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (3R) participate in a meeting of the C5+1 with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in New York City on Sept. 19, 2023. 

The United States is set to modestly increase engagement with Central Asia, but constraints will prevent a significant upgrade in ties.

Biden's Central Asia Meeting Demonstrates the Region's Growing Importance

Columns

On Geopolitics

People seeking to return to work in Russia line up outside Tajikistan's state air ticket agency in the capital of Dushanbe on April 8, 2021. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The ongoing war in Ukraine has left Russia in need of more soldiers, workers and political scapegoats -- a problem in which Central Asia's migrant population will play a critical role.

The Plight of Central Asian Migrants in Wartime Russia

Media

Podcasts

Central Asia is reemerging as a key region for trans-Eurasian trade, but not without complications.

Applied Geopolitics: Central Asia's Geopolitical Challenges

Guidance

Honduras

Taiwan

Leading members of the German Social Democrats, the Greens Party and the German Free Democrats arrive to present their mutually-agreed on coalition contract on November 24, 2021 in Berlin. If the parties' members approve the agreement, the Bundestag is likely to hold a vote to appoint SPD leader Olaf Scholz as chancellor the week of Dec. 6.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended Stratfor articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Germany's Coalition Moves Forward, JCPOA Talks Resume

Eurasia

A protester is seen in the window of the seized main government building, known as the White House, in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on Oct. 6, 2020. 

Security

The New Silk Road

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

The overnight seizure of government buildings cast doubt over President Jeenbekov’s continued rule, but the crisis is unlikely to shift the country’s overall policy direction.

In Kyrgyzstan, Protests Challenge the President’s Place in Power

The Jihadist Wars

Moscow Looks to the East

Instability in Central Asia

A second military base in Kyrgyzstan would not only help Russia stem militancy but would also bolster its position as the outside power with the greatest influence in Central Asia as the U.S. floats an Afghan withdrawal.

Russia, Kyrgyzstan: A Second Russian Military Base Moves Closer to Reality as Regional Security Realigns

Anti-Chinese demonstrations and social media activity is expected to grow as China continues to expand its economic footprint in Kyrgyzstan.

China in Transition

A few hundred people rallied this week in the Kyrgyz capital against Chinese migrants and economic ties. Such resistance is likely to grow as Beijing's presence in the region expands.

Kyrgyzstan: The Importance of an Anti-Chinese Protest in Central Asia

Global Perspectives

Partner Perspectives

China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are moving forward with an ambitious rail project that will run through all three countries.

The ambitious transport project, a long time in the making, will serve the interests of all parties involved by paving the way for a profitable, efficient transit corridor through the strategic region.

China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway to Improve Attractiveness of Central Asia

A string of attacks by people from these countries has stigmatized the region.

Throughout the year, individuals from the northern Caucasus and Central Asia have launched an increasing number of dramatic terrorist attacks that have stigmatized their regions of origin. 

Kazakhstan and Central Asia: International Terrorism Without Borders

Located in the southeast corner of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan borders China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Kyrgyzstan is land-locked and almost entirely mountainous, making economic development difficult. The country has some mineral resources such as gold, but it does not have significant deposits of oil or natural gas. Consequently, Kyrgyzstan is one of the poorest states of the former Soviet Union.     Its mountainous terrain fosters significant internal political and social divisions, particularly between its northern and southern regions. Kyrgyzstan has two population and political cores distinct from each other — one in the capital of Bishkek and the other in the corridor between Osh and Jalal-Abad. This has created an unstable post-independence political environment in the country, with Kyrgyzstan experiencing two revolutions in the past seven years alone.    In 1924, Josef Stalin shaped borders in Central Asia to deliberately divide the Fergana Valley region and its people into three political entities. Kyrgyzstan's large Uzbek and Tajik minority populations in the south, as well as disputes over its limited water resources, have led to tensions and frequent border disputes with its neighbors.    Despite the economic, security and political difficulties created by its geography, Kyrgyzstan's strategic location makes it an area of competition between larger powers. Russia is Kyrgyzstan's largest trading partner, and the country hosts a Russian military base in Kant. The United States also has an air base in Manas, a key transit point for NATO military operations in nearby Afghanistan. Taking advantage of this external competition while trying to overcome internal weaknesses shapes Kyrgyzstan's strategy.

SITUATION REPORTS

Kyrgyzstan: Parliament Passes Controversial Foreign Agents Law

EU, Central Asia: EU-Central Asia Forum Pledges $10.8B for Transport Connectivity

Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan: Negotiators Reach Breakthrough on Border Demarcation

Russia: Putin Attends CIS Summit Authorizing Observer and Partner Status

Kyrgyzstan: Government Inks Large Chinese Investments in Hydroelectric Power

Kyrgyzstan: Japarov Downplays Energy Sector Emergency Through 2026

Kyrgyzstan: President Proposes Executive Review Powers on Constitutional Court Rulings

U.S., Central Asia: Washington Prepares Measures Against Central Asia for Sanctions Busting

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