Kazakhstan

Economics

Energy

Karachaganak Petroleum Operating BV, the consortium operating Kazakhstan's Karachaganak oil and gas field, lost an international arbitration case, leaving it potentially liable to pay $2 billion to $4 billion in compensation for unapproved cost recoveries under the production-sharing agreement, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 26. 

Kazakhstan: Arbitration Ruling Raises Stakes for Energy Investors

Politics

Tengizchevroil declared force majeure on oil exports and cancelled five cargoes totaling up to 700,000 metric tons through February following a power plant fire that had halted production at Tengiz, the country's largest oil field, Reuters reported on Jan. 21.

Kazakhstan: Force Majeure at Tengiz Field Threatens Social Stability

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced the creation of a constitutional commission to prepare amendments that would abolish the Senate, establish a unicameral Parliament and create a vice presidency, Tengrinews.kz reported on Jan. 20.

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Launches Constitutional Overhaul With Succession Changes

Ukraine

Russia

Military & Security

Unidentified drones attacked oil tankers near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, or CPC, terminal in the Black Sea, Reuters reported on Jan. 13, a development later confirmed by Kazakhstan's energy ministry.

Kazakhstan: Black Sea Strikes Threaten Key Export Route and Economic Stability

Uzbekistan

Armenia

Belarus

Kyrgyzstan

Leaders of the Eurasian Economic Union on Dec. 21 approved a "differentiated" framework for a common financial market and initiated customs data exchange negotiations with Uzbekistan during the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in St. Petersburg, Russia.

Russia: Moscow Scraps Plans for Common Eurasian Financial Market

Japan

Kazakhstan's President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held talks with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Emperor Naruhito during his first official visit to Japan, Kazinform reported on Dec. 19.

Kazakhstan, Japan: Tokayev Visit Elevates Ties at Inaugural Central Asia Plus Japan Summit

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree authorizing the joint venture between Rosneft and Shell to execute transactions regarding its 7.5% stake in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, Reuters reported on Dec. 8.

Russia, Kazakhstan: Putin Authorizes Shell's Exit From Caspian Pipeline Consortium

The Kazakh Senate approved amendments to the subsoil code that will cap foreign ownership in new uranium projects at 25% and condition license extensions on the transfer of enrichment technology, Kapital.kz reported on Dec. 4.

Kazakhstan: State Consolidation of Uranium Sector Targets Value Chain Expansion

Assessments

China

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Global Trade

Despite growing interest from Russia, China and Western powers, Central Asia will struggle to emerge as a true continental trade hub due to competing agendas, weak financing and coordination, and security and governance issues.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev address participants of the 21st Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum via a video link during their talks at the Kremlin in Moscow on Nov. 12, 2025. 

The deals signed during Kazakh President Tokayev's recent trip to Moscow will provide Astana with short-term stability but will limit its strategic autonomy and ability to further engage with the West, while heightening its exposure to Russian coercion.

What Russia's Courtship of Kazakhstan Says About the Shifting Balance of Power in Eurasia

United States

U.S. President Donald Trump (C), joined by lawmakers and members of his administration, delivers remarks during a dinner with leaders of Central Asian countries in the East Room of the White House on Nov. 6, 2025.

The recent C5+1 summit highlighted the U.S.'s desire to boost cooperation with Central Asian countries on trade and critical minerals, but the region's geography, governance and reliance on China and Russia will ultimately limit the impact of such efforts. 

The Promise and Limits of Increased U.S. Engagement in Central Asia

Venezuela

Spain

Tanks on Sept. 23 in Caracas, Venezuela. The Trump administration has reportedly decided to attack military sites in Venezuela in strikes that could occur at any moment.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Potential U.S. Strikes in Venezuela, U.S. Outreach in Central Asia

In this pool photograph distributed by the Russian state agency Sputnik, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev waits to greet foreign leaders during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states leaders' summit in Astana on July 4, 2024.

Despite President Tokayev's reform proposals, Kazakhstan's succession process will remain vulnerable to destabilizing forces, including elite rivalries and foreign influence.

How Kazakhstan's Proposed Reforms Will Impact the Question of Succession

Vietnam

Azerbaijan

Russian President Vladimir Putin (R) and Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary To Lam (L) address journalists following their talks in Moscow, Russia, on May 10, 2025, during celebrations of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. 

Vietnam is strengthening its relationships with Eurasian countries, especially Russia, as it looks to further diversify economic and energy ties away from great powers amid an unstable geopolitical landscape.

Russia-Vietnam Ties Are Set To Grow Following Lam's Eurasia Tour

Iraq

Saudi Arabia

The OPEC logo is seen outside the bloc's headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on Oct. 4, 2022.

The production boost will further decrease oil prices, which will provide some financial relief for oil-consuming countries affected by U.S. tariffs, while further straining the budgets of poorer oil producers like Iraq. 

The Mixed Economic Impact of OPEC's Production Increase

Namibia

Tanzania

Uruguay

The NATO symbol and flags of some member countries Oct. 18 in Brussels. The NATO-Ukraine Council will meet Nov. 26 to discuss Russia's first use of an experimental ballistic missile on Ukrainian territory, which on Nov. 21 Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed involved a new medium-range, hypersonic ballistic missile known as "Oreshnik."

The Weekly Rundown: A NATO-Ukraine Summit, Putin's State Visit to Kazakhstan

Turkey

Cambodia

Germany

France

Afghanistan

The Geopolitics of Water

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

The escalating impacts of climate change and water scarcity will inflame tensions between Central Asian countries, raising the risk of violent state conflict in the coming decades. 

The Geopolitics of Water: The Looming Threat of Central Asian 'Water Wars'

Snapshots

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev waits to greet foreign leaders during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states leaders' summit in Astana on July 4, 2024.

Continued liberalization will strengthen Kazakhstan's economic outlook in the coming years, but close ties to Russia and China may stifle foreign investment and limit growth.

Will Economic Liberalization Be Enough To Attract Foreign Investment in Kazakhstan?

Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (right) greets Russian President Vladimir Putin during their meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan, on Nov. 9, 2023.

Despite inking new deals with Moscow, Astana will continue to deepen its ties with China, the West and Turkey, which over time will increase tensions with Russia.

Kazakhstan's Diversification Push Won't Spur Russian Retaliation -- For Now

U.S. President Joe Biden (C) and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (3R) participate in a meeting of the C5+1 with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Zhaparov, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, Turkmen President Serdar Berdymukhamedov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in New York City on Sept. 19, 2023. 

The United States is set to modestly increase engagement with Central Asia, but constraints will prevent a significant upgrade in ties.

Biden's Central Asia Meeting Demonstrates the Region's Growing Importance

The ninth largest country in the world, Kazakhstan rests in the heart of Central Asia, bordering Russia to its north; China on its east; Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan along its south; and the Caspian Sea to its west.     The defining feature of Kazakhstan is the Kazakh Steppe, a large dryland stretching across more than 70 percent of the country. Only 12 percent of the country's land is arable, and the majority of that is in the north connecting into Russia's agricultural belt. There is also a large pocket in the south. This expanse has largely pushed the population of nearly 18 million to the outer borderlands. The steppe is encircled by a series of sizable mountain ranges.      The core of the country lies in the corridor stretching across the Shymkent (also known as Southern Kazakhstan) and the Almaty region, where the climate is warm compared with the inhospitable deserts of the steppe. This stretch of land lies in the Syr Darya river basin, creating a fertile pocket of land protected to its east, west and north by mountain ranges. Shymkent and Almaty were some of the largest stopping posts along the Silk Road, and they now have the country's densest population and swaths of the financial, industrial and agricultural sectors. To the region's south lies the Fergana Valley in Uzbekistan &mdash; a vulnerable point to its core.     The Kazakh economy is dominated by its energy sector, making up nearly 20 percent of the gross domestic product. The country exports 78 percent of its oil production, regionally and along large trunk lines to China and Russia. Along with its agricultural and metals wealth, Kazakhstan's energy sector has made the country highly valuable to its neighbors. In recent decades, the country has positioned itself as the financial hub of Central Asia, tying in the banking systems of its smaller neighbors.     Kazakhstan maintains strong ties with Russia, which reach back to its empire and Soviet phases. But the government in the capital, Astana, is also developing links to China and other players to balance Moscow. The country tries to maintain working relationships with its smaller neighbors, who have seen bouts of instability. Kazakhstan's challenges stem from its mostly hollow interior, from encroaching large powers and from the potential instability of smaller regions on its border.

SITUATION REPORTS

Kazakhstan: Arbitration Ruling Raises Stakes for Energy Investors

Kazakhstan: Force Majeure at Tengiz Field Threatens Social Stability

Kazakhstan: Tokayev Launches Constitutional Overhaul With Succession Changes

Kazakhstan: Black Sea Strikes Threaten Key Export Route and Economic Stability

Russia: Moscow Scraps Plans for Common Eurasian Financial Market

Kazakhstan, Japan: Tokayev Visit Elevates Ties at Inaugural Central Asia Plus Japan Summit

Russia, Kazakhstan: Putin Authorizes Shell's Exit From Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Kazakhstan: State Consolidation of Uranium Sector Targets Value Chain Expansion

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