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Taiwan's opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party legislators suggested amending the annual budget to introduce cuts of up to 44% on 38 defense projects, including the country's domestic submarine development program, drones and mine-laying vessels, Focus Taiwan reported on Jan. 16.

Taiwan: Budget Cuts Highlight Potential Wrinkle in U.S. Defense Cooperation

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Science & Technology

Taiwan asked South Korea to assist in investigating a Chinese-owned cargo ship suspected of cutting an underwater sea cable on Taiwan's north coast on Jan. 3, The Financial Times reported on Jan. 5.

Taiwan: Chinese Vessel Suspected of Sea Cable Incident

Taiwan's Cabinet requested that the legislature vote again on a bill that the opposition-controlled legislature passed on Dec. 20 that would require at least 10 of 15 justices to be present for the Constitutional Court to hear a case (up from the previous eight) and nine to agree before the court could rule a case unconstitutional, Focus Taiwan reported on Jan. 2.

Taiwan: Court Reforms Could Ease China Tensions, Spur Protests

The opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party pushed through Taiwan's legislature three measures, including one that requires at least 10 of 15 Constitutional Court judges to be present to hear a case and at least nine judges to rule something "unconstitutional," up from the current simple majority, Focus Taiwan reported on Dec. 20. 

Taiwan: Opposition's Power Grab To Increase Political Polarization

Japan

Philippines

U.S.-China Relations

An annual Pentagon report on China's military detailed on Dec. 18 the faster-than-expected expansion of China's nuclear arsenal to 600 warheads in 2024. 

China, U.S.: Pentagon Report Highlights Escalating Missile Arms Race

Taiwan's Defense Ministry spokesperson Sun Li-fang said China's naval deployments in the Taiwan Strait, near Japan's southern islands and in the South China Sea were the largest since 1996, with Sun adding that the current naval deployment is larger than any of China's previous four live-fire drills in the last three years, the Taipei Times reported on Dec. 10. 

China, Taiwan: Chinese Military Deployments Raise Fears of Largest Drill Yet

Taiwan's conservative opposition Kuomintang, or KMT, will hold a vote in the legislature on Nov. 18 on whether to reform the Constitutional Court to require 15 judges to be present to rule on cases (up from the current eight) and to require a two-thirds vote (10 of 15 judges), up from the current simple majority, to pass any ruling, Focus Taiwan reported on Nov. 12.

Taiwan: Opposition Goes After Top Court, Risking Protests, Institutional Infighting

Taiwan's Constitutional Court overturned nearly all legislative amendments passed by opposition parties in May, including those requiring the president to give a legislative address and field questions, allowing legislative investigative committees to call in for questioning officials from across the governments, and penalizing (including criminally) individuals who do not comply with investigations, Focus Taiwan reported on Oct. 25.

Taiwan: Court Overturns Controversial Legislative Changes, Removing Barriers to Policymaking

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U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

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World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Energy

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

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U.S. President Joe Biden and President Joao Lourenco of Angola on Nov. 30, 2023, at the White House. Biden on Dec. 2-4 will visit Angola, where he will focus on the Lobito Corridor project that aims to refurbish and expand railways connecting critical mineral-rich regions in Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo with the Angolan port of Lobito.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Biden Visits Angola, von der Leyen's Second Term

Europe

The sample of an Intel chip is displayed during Computex 2024 in Taipei on June 4, 2024. 

If Intel's bold new business strategy fails, it would serve a painful blow to U.S. semiconductor ambitions and likely cement the global dominance of Taiwan's TSMC.

The U.S. Semiconductor Industry's Strategic Challenges

A man watches a news program about Chinese military drills surrounding Taiwan on a giant screen outside a shopping mall in Beijing on Oct. 14, 2024.

China's latest military exercises lower the threshold for the still unlikely prospect of a Taiwan blockade and highlight Beijing's military coercive strategy toward Taipei through 2028.

Chinese Drills Around Taiwan Practice for a Blockade, Even if One Isn't Imminent

Taiwanese President William Lai gives his inauguration speech on May 20, 2024, in Taipei, Taiwan.

The president's recent remarks indicate he will continue to remove rhetorical ambiguity about Taiwan's de facto sovereignty, portending more Chinese military drills and deeper Western engagement with Taiwan.

For Taiwan, Lai's Pro-Sovereignty Rhetoric May Invite Western Support -- and Chinese Drills

Media

Podcasts

How is China reacting to President William Lai's inauguration?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Short-term China-Taiwan Relations

North Korea

Global Elections

While President Biden would be expected to continue to build and strengthen alliances with America's key allies in the northern Asian region, the reelection of President Trump could spur those same allies to look beyond the U.S. for their physical and economic security.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections, Northern Asia and Geopolitical Risk: What to Expect

Snapshots

An outdoor screen shows news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing, China, on May 23, 2024. 

The drills suggest China will escalate its military coercion during Taiwanese President Lai's four-year term, and could be followed by more extensive drills later this year if the U.S. steps up its support for Taipei.

China's Latest Military Drills Around Taiwan Set the Tone for Cross-Strait Relations Under Lai

Palestinian Territories

Spain

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Taiwanese President-elect William Lai (C) on Jan. 13 in Taipei, Taiwan. Lai will officially begin his four-year presidency May 20.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The Weekly Rundown: Kenya's President Visits Washington, Lai Inaugurated in Taiwan

What do China's recent Taiwan Strait initiatives mean for Taiwan's security?

Essential Geopolitics: China's New Initiatives in the Taiwan Strait

Kinmen Island, the main island of Taiwan's Kinmen archipelago, is seen in the distance from a beach in the southeastern Chinese city of Xiamen on Jan. 12, 2024.

Beijing is seizing on the death of two Chinese fishermen to exercise greater control around Taiwan's Kinmen islands, raising the risk of more dangerous encounters in the area.

A Deadly Incident at Sea Heightens China-Taiwan Tensions

Taiwan is located along a sea lane in the West Pacific, with the East China Sea to the north, the Philippine Sea to the east and the South China Sea to the south. The island is 180 kilometers off the southeastern coast of mainland China, across the Taiwan Strait. The strait has allowed for communication with the mainland since ancient times, but has also forced the island to confront the mainland's unrelenting attempts to reclaim it.    Taiwan consists of two geographic and population cores. The first is the Chianan Plain in the southwestern region, home to Taiwan's earliest civilizations and the island's second-largest city, Kaohsiung. The second is Taipei Basin, home to the island's capital, Taipei. These two cores are separated by rugged mountains and over several centuries have developed their own distinct social patterns and economic structures. The presence of mainlanders, who have been crossing the strait since the 17th century, further compounds the island's socio-political divides.    Taiwan's crucial strategic position has put it at the center of regional geopolitical competition for centuries. In the 17th century it was controlled by various European colonial powers, and up until World War II, it switched hands between the Chinese empire and Japanese rulers. Taiwan was the extended battleground of the Chinese Civil War in the mid-1940s and only established itself as an independent, unified polity in 1945. Today, it remains a focal point of power struggles between China, Japan and the United States. The island's primary geographic challenge is to avoid being dominated by external powers while securing a maritime buffer. Both these goals are challenged by China, which is expanding its maritime ambitions in the East and South China seas and remains fixated on eventual national reunification.

SITUATION REPORTS

Taiwan: Budget Cuts Highlight Potential Wrinkle in U.S. Defense Cooperation

Taiwan: Chinese Vessel Suspected of Sea Cable Incident

Taiwan: Court Reforms Could Ease China Tensions, Spur Protests

Taiwan: Opposition's Power Grab To Increase Political Polarization

China, U.S.: Pentagon Report Highlights Escalating Missile Arms Race

China, Taiwan: Chinese Military Deployments Raise Fears of Largest Drill Yet

Taiwan: Opposition Goes After Top Court, Risking Protests, Institutional Infighting

Taiwan: Court Overturns Controversial Legislative Changes, Removing Barriers to Policymaking

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