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The Philippine Senate resumed work after a senator aligned with Vice President Sara Duterte's bloc broke ranks, enabling rival senators aligned with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to secure a 12-member quorum, elect an acting Senate president and reorganize the chamber's leadership, Reuters reported on June 3.

Philippines: Senate Resumes Work With Disputed New Leadership

Vietnam

The Philippine Senate failed to open its June 1 session after recent events reduced the 13-member majority bloc to 11 senators, prompting the bloc -- which also includes the Senate president -- to skip the session rather than risk losing control of the floor, Bloomberg reported the next day. 

Philippines: Senate Dysfunction Leads to Paralysis

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The Philippines and Vietnam upgraded ties to an enhanced strategic partnership during Vietnamese Communist Party General Secretary and President To Lam's May 31-June 1 state visit to Manila, Reuters reported on June 1.

Philippines, Vietnam: Manila, Hanoi Upgrade Ties Amid South China Sea Pressure

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Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said his country would likely be involved in "any" Taiwan conflict given Taiwan's geographic proximity and the need to protect the nearly 200,000 Filipinos who live and work there, Bloomberg reported on May 19.

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Reiterates Intention To Be Involved in 'Any' Taiwan Conflict

Sen. Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa "escaped" the Philippine Senate before dawn after taking shelter there under Senate protective custody while facing an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, Reuters reported on May 14. 

Philippines: 'Escape' of Senator Wanted by the ICC Deepens Political Crisis

More than a dozen gunshots were heard inside the Philippine Senate while former national police chief and current Sen. Ronald "Bato" Dela Rosa remained under Senate protective custody in the face of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, The Philippine Star reported on May 13.

Philippines: Shots Fired as Senate Standoff Escalates

The Philippine House of Representatives voted 257-25, with nine abstentions, to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte for a second time over alleged fund misuse, unexplained wealth and threats against President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., The New York Times reported on May 11. 

Philippines: Vice President Impeached, but Senate Shakeup Makes Conviction Uncertain 

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Association of Southeast Asian Nations members agreed to boost maritime cooperation and create a new center for maritime issues after the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz highlighted the region's exposure to shipping disruptions and energy supply shocks, Bloomberg reported on May 8. 

ASEAN: Strait of Hormuz Shock Spurs Limited Maritime Coordination

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Police personnel arrive outside the Senate of the Philippines in Pasay, Metro Manila, on May 13, 2026.

Intensifying Marcos-Duterte tensions, fueled by the vice president's impeachment and the ICC's attempted arrest of a Duterte-aligned senator, are testing Philippine institutions and threatening policy gridlock before the 2028 presidential race.

The Escalating Marcos-Duterte Feud Threatens Philippine Institutions

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A cargo ship anchored May 16 in the Strait of Hormuz near Larak Island, Iran. Major gaps in negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program persist, and the U.S.-Iran ceasefire will remain fragile over the next week.

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Rubio Visits India, a Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

A Chinese navy ship (background left) is seen while an Australian navy ship (right) takes part in a maritime cooperative activity with the Philippines and Canada in the disputed waters of the South China Sea on Sept. 3, 2025.

China, the Philippines and Vietnam's efforts to rebalance coercive activity with diplomatic engagement have temporarily lowered escalation risks, but persistent rivalries ensure long-term volatility.

In the South China Sea, Managed Tension Masks Long-Term Volatility

Philippine Foreign Minister Theresa Lazaro speaks at a press conference during a Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Cebu City, the Philippines, on Jan. 29, 2026.

The coming year will test ASEAN's ability to maintain unity, manage crises and remain a credible regional forum amid rising internal security risks and a more fractured world order, particularly as the Philippines butts heads with China in the South China Sea.

Previewing the Philippines 2026 ASEAN Chairmanship

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Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. delivers his third State of the Nation Address before lawmakers at the House of Representatives on July 22, 2024 in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines. 

A widespread corruption scandal is threatening to cause political instability in the Philippines, which could lead to policy paralysis and weaken the Philippines' posture against China.

A Corruption Scandal Threatens Political Crisis in the Philippines

U.S. President Donald Trump (center) poses for a group photo with the leaders of (L-R) Singapore, East Timor, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia and Laos during the ASEAN leaders summit on Oct. 26, 2025. 

Global Trade

U.S.-China Relations

The summit highlighted the Southeast Asian bloc's attempts to boost internal unity and economic integration amid the U.S.-China rivalry, but it also exposed structural divides and external pressures that hinder unified action and leave ASEAN states vulnerable to coercion.

The Takeaways From the 2025 ASEAN Summit

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Fire rages through the Singha Durbar, the main administrative building for the Nepal government, in Kathmandu on Sept. 9, 2025, after youth protesters set fire to the building. 

Recent events in Nepal, Madagascar and elsewhere show how digitally coordinated, leaderless protests can succeed, but eventually face even larger challenges in sustaining the momentum for change.

Worldwide Gen Z Protesters May Be Disappointed With Their Success

 The European Union and China will hold a high-level leaders' summit July 24 in Beijing, marking the 50th anniversary of Chinese-EU diplomatic relations.

The Weekly Rundown: An EU-China Summit, South Africa's Budget Vote

The Geopolitics of Trade

The impending full implementation of sweeping U.S. tariffs threatens to significantly disrupt export-driven ASEAN economies, which is driving countries to seek alternative trade partners.

The Geopolitics of Trade: U.S. Tariffs Give Impetus to ASEAN Trade Diversification

Supporters of Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. attend a campaign rally in Mandaluyong, the Philippines, on May 9, 2025, ahead of the midterm elections. 

President Marcos' diminished Senate majority could slow defense deals in the short term and tilt foreign policy back toward neutrality or a China-friendly stance in the long term.

Midterm Elections Deal a Blow to the Philippines' U.S.-Friendly President

A Chinese frigate participates in a naval parade in the sea near Qingdao, in eastern China's Shandong province, on April 23, 2019. 

A shift from coastguard to naval confrontations raises the likelihood of sharp, short direct conflict that would significantly worsen already high maritime tensions.

Chinese-Philippine Naval Confrontations Raise the Stakes in South China Sea Tensions

The Philippines is a collection of over 7,000 islands situated at the confluence of the South China Sea, the Indonesian archipelago, the Philippine Sea and Pacific Ocean. It forms the outer edge of maritime Southeast Asia, and for much of its modern history has served as a gateway between western powers and continental Asia.     A former colony of both Spain and the United States, the Philippines today consists of three island clusters: Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. Luzon, with the country’s capital in Manila, is the political, cultural and economic core of modern Philippines. It is highly urbanized relative to the rest of the country, boasts a large port and deep harbor, and accounts for roughly one-third of the Philippines GDP. Mindanao has long been a hotbed for political unrest and insurgent movements and is populated by the predominantly Muslim Moro tribes. It is also an important fruit and produce exporter.    The Philippines is shaped by sharp geographic, economic and social divisions between a primarily urban north — in Luzon — and a heavily agricultural, poorer south. This, along with the fractured island geography, makes effective national integration difficult. It also undermines Manila's efforts to play a stronger role throughout the South China Sea region or guard against external infringement on its territorial waters, especially from China. That weakness is apparent today, as China's increasingly aggressive moves to assert its own maritime claims test Manila's voice in groups like ASEAN as well as its alliance with the U.S.    While the Philippines’ location at the entrance to maritime Southeast Asia makes it geopolitically significant, internal imbalances continue to hamper its ability to actively defend its own claims, let alone project power.

Supply Chains

Asia-Pacific: Among Great Powers

Southeast Asia: Burdened by Consensus

SITUATION REPORTS

Philippines: Senate Resumes Work With Disputed New Leadership

Philippines: Senate Dysfunction Leads to Paralysis

Philippines, Vietnam: Manila, Hanoi Upgrade Ties Amid South China Sea Pressure

Philippines, Taiwan: Manila Reiterates Intention To Be Involved in 'Any' Taiwan Conflict

Philippines: 'Escape' of Senator Wanted by the ICC Deepens Political Crisis

Philippines: Shots Fired as Senate Standoff Escalates

Philippines: Vice President Impeached, but Senate Shakeup Makes Conviction Uncertain

ASEAN: Strait of Hormuz Shock Spurs Limited Maritime Coordination

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