United States

China

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

U.S.-China Relations

Science & Technology

The Chinese government granted Chinese tech giants ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent approvals to purchase a combined total of more than 400,000 Nvidia H200 chips, according to Reuters sources on Jan. 28.

China, U.S.: Beijing Conditionally Allows Some Nvidia H200 Chip Imports

Australia

Politics

China's ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian warned that Beijing would have an "obligation to take measures" to protect the interests of Chinese companies if Canberra pushes ahead with a forced sale or otherwise coercive measures to reclaim the Port of Darwin, the Australian Broadcasting Corp. reported Jan. 28.

China, Australia: Beijing Warns of Retaliation Amid Port of Darwin Dispute

United Kingdom

The United Kingdom's Prime Minister Keir Starmer is travelling to China for a three-day visit starting Jan. 27, marking the first such trip by a British leader since 2018, Reuters reported the same day.

U.K., China: Starmer To Visit Beijing Amid Revival of High-Level Economic Engagement

Argentina

Military & Security

A U.S. military plane landed in Argentina's southernmost province on Jan. 25, three days after the Argentine government intervened in the region's Ushuaia port and took control of its operations for one year, removing provincial authorities' powers amid allegations of embezzlement and infrastructure problems, Perfil reported on Jan. 25.

Argentina: Government's Administrative Takeover of Southernmost Port Indicates Strong Alignment With Washington

Canada

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened in a Jan. 24 Truth Social post to impose "a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A." if Canada moves forward with a recently announced trade deal with China.

U.S., Canada: Trump Threatens To Impose a 100% Tariff on Canada

Japan

South Korea

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi announced on Jan. 23 the dissolution of the lower house of the Diet, with the campaign period set to begin on Jan. 27 and the vote scheduled for Feb. 8, marking the shortest window in Japan's history from dissolution to voting, Kyodo News reported on Jan. 23.

Japan: Takaichi Dissolves Lower House To Push Fiscal, Defense Expansion

Tanzania

Tanzanian Minister of Minerals Anthony Mavunde discussed a graphite partnership with U.S. Charge d'Affaires Andrew Lentz, The Chanzo reported on Jan. 21. 

Tanzania: Government in Talks With U.S. for Graphite Deal

U.S. uranium and rare earths company Energy Fuels agreed to acquire Australian Strategic Materials, or ASM, a rare earths mining and processing company, in a deal worth around $300 million paid entirely with Energy Fuels stock, the Financial Times reported on Jan. 21.

U.S., Australia: Rare Earths Deal Advances Non-China Supply Chains, but Execution Risks Loom Large

Snapshots

Taiwan

Zhang Youxia, senior vice chairman of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), attends the opening of the fourth plenary session of the National People's Congress on March 11, 2023, in Beijing, China. 

The removal of Xi's closest military ally signals an acceleration of his push to eliminate internal threats and heightens uncertainty about the president's decision-making on Taiwan, potentially raising the risk of future conflict.

China's High-Level Military Purge Raises Risk of a Miscalculation on Taiwan

Assessments

Israel

Palestinian Territories

India

Egyptian trucks and heavy machinery on Oct. 26, 2025, on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: A Gaza Border Reopening, EU Leaders Visit India

Columns

On Geopolitics

Europe

Global Trade

U.S. protectionism has dramatically weakened the rules-based, multilateral trade regime established after World War II, driving governments to increasingly view trade through a national security lens rather than purely an economic one.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Conclusion

Venezuela

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) and Venezuelan Foreign Minister Yvan Gil (left) attend a meeting in Beijing on May 12, 2025.

U.S. pressure on the new Venezuelan government will briefly cool China's engagement in Latin America and could renew trade tensions with Washington, though Maduro's removal is unlikely to affect China's calculus regarding Taiwan.

Assessing China's Response to the U.S. Capture of Venezuela's Maduro

Nigeria

Colombia

Cuba

Mexico

Greenland

Iran

Norway

Ukraine

Russia

Pakistan

Cyber

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

U.S.-Iran Relations

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Benin

Uganda

Denmark

The Greenlandic flag on Jan. 8, 2026, on the roof of Tivoli Castle in Copenhagen, Denmark. Ukraine security talks and a Gaza peace plan will be in the spotlight at Davos.

The Weekly Rundown: Elections in Uganda and Benin, Canada's Carney Goes to China

Media

Forecast Webcast

Energy

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Annual Geopolitical Forecast Webcast

The Danish-flagged DMS Lauge Koch, an offshore Royal Danish Navy patrol vessel, docks at the Port of Nuuk on March 12, 2025, in Nuuk, Greenland.

Scenarios for the coming year range from unilateral military action by the United States to a U.S.-Denmark agreement to expand Washington's capabilities on the island.


How Could the U.S. Seek To 'Take' Greenland?

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

Yemen

North Korea

A U.S. Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport on December 15, 2025 in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. If U.S. strikes escalate and cause significant casualties, it could make retaliatory measures -- including the arbitrary detention of U.S. citizens in Venezuela or the harassment of energy sector vessels in the region -- more likely.

The Weekly Rundown: South Korea's President Visits Beijing, U.S. Operations in Venezuela

Burkina Faso

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Madagascar

Mali

Niger

Rwanda

Paraguay

Egypt

Lebanon

Morocco

Qatar

Syria

Turkey

Cambodia

Timor-Leste

Indonesia

Mongolia

Myanmar

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Bulgaria

Afghanistan

Nepal

Flight routes.

As 2026 approaches, we look back at the previous year and consider the top five patterns and trends as measured by geopolitical impact.

2025: A Geopolitical Review

A general view shows the closed border checkpoint between Cambodia and Thailand in Poipet, Cambodia, on Dec. 12, 2025, amid clashes in the area.

The Southeast Asian countries' second pause following the failed July ceasefire remains highly fragile due to early alleged violations and unresolved territorial disputes, which could lead to renewed large-scale fighting in the years ahead.

Another Thai-Cambodian Truce Halts Escalating Border Clashes -- For Now

Uzbekistan

Tajikistan

Turkmenistan

Kazakhstan

Kyrgyzstan

Despite growing interest from Russia, China and Western powers, Central Asia will struggle to emerge as a true continental trade hub due to competing agendas, weak financing and coordination, and security and governance issues.

The Geopolitics of Trade: Central Asia's Struggle for Logistics Sovereignty

<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

China, U.S.: Beijing Conditionally Allows Some Nvidia H200 Chip Imports

China, Australia: Beijing Warns of Retaliation Amid Port of Darwin Dispute

U.K., China: Starmer To Visit Beijing Amid Revival of High-Level Economic Engagement

Argentina: Government's Administrative Takeover of Southernmost Port Indicates Strong Alignment With Washington

U.S., Canada: Trump Threatens To Impose a 100% Tariff on Canada

Japan: Takaichi Dissolves Lower House To Push Fiscal, Defense Expansion

Tanzania: Government in Talks With U.S. for Graphite Deal

U.S., Australia: Rare Earths Deal Advances Non-China Supply Chains, but Execution Risks Loom Large

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