United States

China

Economics

Environment, Science & Technology

Science & Technology

American tech companies Microsoft and OpenAI are investigating whether a group linked to Chinese artificial intelligence company DeepSeek illicitly obtained data from OpenAI models to train its breakout R1 model, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 28.

U.S.: OpenAI Claims DeepSeek Illicitly Accessed Data To Train Model

India

Military & Security

Politics

India and China agreed to restart direct flights after almost five years alongside initiatives to enhance journalists' access and ease pilgrimages to a Hindu shrine in Tibet, Reuters reported on Jan. 28.

India, China: Direct Flights To Resume After Five Years

China Vanke, one of China's largest and formerly most stable real estate companies, announced that Chair Yu Liang was stepping down and that state-owned Shenzhen Metro Chair Xin Jie would take his place, Reuters reported on Jan. 27.

China: As Vanke Teeters, State Efforts Will Inform 2025 Real Estate Prospects

Vietnam

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a phone call with Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son in which he urged the Southeast Asian country to address its $110 billion trade surplus with the United States, Reuters reported on Jan. 24.

U.S.: Vietnam: Washington Already Pushing Hanoi To Reduce Trade Imbalance

China’s consumer goods trade-in programs for 2024 saw sales of home appliances, electric bicycles, automobiles and other related goods hit 1.3 trillion yuan ($179 billion) in 2024, sales which raised China’s overall annual retail sales growth by 1 percentage point to 3.5% in 2024, according to China’s Vice Commerce Minister Sheng Qiuping on Jan. 24. 

China: Trade-In Program Unlikely To Revive Consumption in 2025

Costa Rica

Dominican Republic

El Salvador

Guatemala

Panama

Marco Rubio will visit Central American and Caribbean countries in his first official tour as U.S. Secretary of State, meeting with authorities in Guatemala, El Salvador, Costa Rica, Panama and the Dominican Republic by the end of January, El Pais reported on Jan. 23.

U.S., Latin America: Rubio's Latin America Tour Underscores Trump's Focus on Immigration

Angola

Angolan Economy Minister Jose de Lima Massano said Angola was seeking to raise between $1 billion and $2 billion in eurobonds as part of efforts to extend maturities and lower its debt cost, Bloomberg reported on Jan. 22.

Angola: Government To Issue Fresh Eurobonds, Advance Privatization  

Philippines

The Philippines will bring a case against China in an international court centered around China's alleged damage to the marine environment within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, Reuters reported on Jan. 23. 

Philippines, China: Manila To Bring Second South China Sea Case Against Beijing

Assessments

Canada

Mexico

Israel

Lebanon

Europe

Hungary

Russia

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his wife Jeanette Rubio arrive at the State Department in Washington, D.C., to speak to employees on Jan. 21, 2025. 

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Expires, Rubio Tours Latin America

Pakistan

The Geopolitics of Water

Energy

South Asia's rising demand for water resources will exacerbate disputes over key waterways, particularly the Brahmaputra and Indus rivers.

The Geopolitics of Water: Regional Rivals Compete for South Asia's Rivers

Saudi Arabia

United Arab Emirates

The entrance to the International Monetary Fund in Washington, D.C.

Ahead of the first review of its newest IMF program, Pakistan seeks creditor assurances and a broader tax base.

Pakistan's Path to Meeting IMF Demands

U.S. President Donald Trump holds up an executive order after signing it during an indoor inauguration parade at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C, on Jan. 20, 2025.

While some will face legal challenges, Trump's initial orders on immigration, trade, energy and climate issues lay the groundwork for his ambitious agenda.

What To Make of Trump's Day 1 Executive Orders

Columns

On Geopolitics

Asia-Pacific

Australia

Indonesia

Japan

Malaysia

South Korea

Taiwan

U.S. President Joe Biden gestures to reporters after landing on the South Lawn of the White House on Sept. 22, 2024, in Washington, D.C. 

U.S.-China Relations

Trump's more aggressive and transactional approach could deliver quick wins for the U.S.'s position in the region, though it could also strain ties with key partners. 

Trump's Asia-Pacific Approach Will Test Biden's Gains

Iran

Syria

Cyber

Nation-states' growing use of hacktivist personas to obfuscate responsibility will increasingly enable them to attack targets they would otherwise avoid and spread propaganda.

Hacktivism Offers Plausible Deniability for State-Backed Cyber Actors

Mozambique

United Kingdom

Security personnel walk on a road with buses blocking an entrance gate to protect impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol from a possible second arrest in Seoul on Jan. 6. If Yoon is not arrested, the opposition could again seek to impeach the country's acting president due to his insufficient support for the arrest efforts, worsening foreign perceptions of political instability in South Korea.

The Weekly Rundown: Mozambique's President Takes Office, the U.K. Chancellor Visits China

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Argentina

Brazil

Ecuador

Algeria

Iraq

Jordan

Kuwait

Qatar

Tunisia

Turkey

Yemen

Ukraine

Belarus

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

Media

Podcasts

What is Salt Typhoon, and what happened in the recent hack against U.S. telecommunications companies? 

Essential Geopolitics: Unpacking China's Salt Typhoon Operation

Nauru

Papua New Guinea

Solomon Islands

The flags of Australia, the Solomon Islands, Nauru and Papua New Guinea clockwise starting from the upper left. Canberra will have to fulfill its commitments to keep Beijing's influence at bay as island countries play the two off each other.

Canberra will have to fulfill its commitments to keep Beijing's influence at bay as island countries play the two off each other. 

Australian Efforts to Counter China in the Pacific Will Require Follow-Through

Water utilities are uniquely vulnerable to cyberattacks due to frequent financial and security limitations, exposing water-stressed countries to threats from hacktivists and foreign adversaries.

 The Geopolitics of Water: Cyberattacks' Impact on Water Stress in the U.S. and Beyond

Statements made by Trump and his allies, including Elon Musk, offer insight into how his next administration will approach the regulation (or lack thereof) of AI, online content, data and monopolistic business practices.

Previewing Trump's Tech Policies

<p>China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass, between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000 mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East and South China Seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid, sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell. More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on Earth. Traditionally, threats to China&#39;s Han core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the Core&#39;s borders outward &mdash;integrating these highlands as strategic &quot;buffer&quot; zones. These zones form a shield, protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions. But maintaining control of the regions, in turn, requires a strong and united core. And that means overcoming immense internal divisions &mdash; not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with their own geography, history, dialect and interests. Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation, from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those when a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands. This pattern, rooted in China&#39;s geography, has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China&#39;s maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threaten to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space &mdash; and potentially upending the long-standing dynamics of China&#39;s geographic challenge.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S.: OpenAI Claims DeepSeek Illicitly Accessed Data To Train Model

India, China: Direct Flights To Resume After Five Years

China: As Vanke Teeters, State Efforts Will Inform 2025 Real Estate Prospects

U.S.: Vietnam: Washington Already Pushing Hanoi To Reduce Trade Imbalance

China: Trade-In Program Unlikely To Revive Consumption in 2025

U.S., Latin America: Rubio's Latin America Tour Underscores Trump's Focus on Immigration

Angola: Government To Issue Fresh Eurobonds, Advance Privatization

Philippines, China: Manila To Bring Second South China Sea Case Against Beijing

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