Cuba

United States

Military & Security

Politics

The U.S. military is planning for a possible operation in Cuba in the event that U.S. President Donald Trump gives an order to intervene, USA Today reported on April 15, citing two unnamed sources.

U.S., Cuba: Sources Report Pentagon Planning Military Operation in Cuba

Economics

Energy

Cuba began releasing select prisoners on April 3, though all those released so far had been detained for common crimes, not for political reasons, El Debate reported on April 5.

Cuba, U.S.: Cuba's Prisoner Releases Begin With Common, Not Political, Criminals

Russia

A Russian tanker with 100,000 metric tons of oil arrived in Cuba on March 30, a day after U.S. ​President Donald Trump said he had "no problem" with any country sending ‌crude to the island, El Pais reported on March 30.

Cuba, U.S., Russia: U.S. Allows Russian Tanker To Reach Cuba

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel said former President Raul Castro is involved in negotiations between Havana and Washington, AP reported on March 25. 

Cuba, U.S.: Raul Castro Participates in U.S. Talks as Leaks About Negotiations Emerge

Cuba's Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernandez de Cossio said the country has no disputes with the United States but would be naive not to prepare for the unlikely possibility of U.S. military aggression, Reuters reported on March 22.

Cuba, U.S.: Havana Says It Is Preparing for Potential U.S. Military Aggression

The Cuban government announced it will allow Cubans living abroad to invest in the country's private sector, El Pais reported on March 16.

Cuba, U.S.: Havana Further Relaxes Economic Rules Amid Grid Collapse and U.S. Pressure

Anti-government protests opposing severe power outages across Cuba escalated, with protesters attacking a Communist Party office in the central city of Moron, 250 miles (402 kilometers) east of Havana, Reuters reported on March 14.

Cuba: Unrest Over Power Outages Turns Violent

The Cuban government has engaged in talks with the United States, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel confirmed in a TV broadcast on March 13.

U.S., Cuba: Havana Confirms Talks With Washington

Assessments

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Lebanon

Europe

Bulgaria

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Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine speaks as he displays a map showing the U.S. Navy's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during a press briefing at the Pentagon on April 16, 2026, in Arlington, Virginia. 

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: U.S.-Iran Diplomacy, Political Instability in the Balkans

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Forecast Webcast

Join our analysts for this webcast recording exploring key topics identified in RANE's 2026 Second-Quarter Geopolitical Forecast.

2026 Second-Quarter Forecast Webcast

Israel

People on March 15 in Tehran, Iran, clean up rubble from a missile attack. The Iran war will almost certainly continue through the next week amid Israeli threats to escalate and expand strikes due to Iranian attacks targeting Israeli civilians and the U.S. deployment of additional military assets to the region.

The Weekly Rundown: The Iran War Continues, a European Parliament Delegation Visits China

American Airlines planes sit on the tarmac at Jose Marti International Airport in Havana on Feb. 9, 2026. 

Facing imminent economic collapse and the loss of key allies, the Cuban government will likely yield to U.S. demands for market liberalization to avoid a total breakdown of state authority while attempting to preserve political control.

Economic Concessions to U.S. Offer Path for Regime Survival in Cuba

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

Belize

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

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Guatemala

Haiti

Honduras

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Trinidad and Tobago

Jamaica

A U.S. Marine V-22 Osprey takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport, formerly Roosevelt Roads Naval Station, on Sept. 13, 2025, in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. 

The Trump administration will likely expand its attacks against alleged drug traffickers in the region over the next year, potentially extending to land-based targets, which will create safety, operational and compliance challenges for organizations.

The Outlook for U.S. Strikes on Drug Traffickers in Latin America and the Caribbean

Argentina

Bolivia

Brazil

Chile

Costa Rica

Guyana

Nicaragua

Panama

Paraguay

Peru

Suriname

Uruguay

(L-R) Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina attend a plenary session of the China-CELAC ministerial meeting at the Great Hall of the People on May 13, 2025, in Beijing, China. 

Latin America and the Caribbean will welcome China's increased engagement, but strong ties to the West and China's economic slowdown will limit Beijing's influence in the region.

Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited

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The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

U.S. border patrol officials drive near the wall along the Mexican border in Sasabe, Arizona, on Dec. 8, 2023. 

The fallout from Trump's pledged tariffs and mass deportations could worsen living conditions in countries like Mexico, though countries with like-minded leaders, like Argentina, may fare better.

What Trump's Focus on Immigration, Trade and Ideology Means for Latin America

Snapshots

People attend a rally in support of Israel in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Oct. 22, 2023. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Anger over the conflict could temporarily strain Israel and the U.S.'s relations with left-wing governments in the region, while countries with large Jewish or Arab populations may see more security-related incidents.

Latin America's Response to the Israel-Hamas War 

Podcasts

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Are Russia's claims of increased cooperation with Latin America's authoritarian governments credible?

Essential Geopolitics: Russia Makes Moves in the U.S. Backyard

People walk past a mural of the Venezuelan and Russian flags that reads "Together we will defeat COVID-19" in Caracas, Venezuela, on March 4, 2021.

The Ukraine Conflict

Amid ongoing tensions in Ukraine, Moscow will use its ties with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua to illustrate its geopolitical influence in the U.S.'s own backyard. 

Is Russia’s Renewed Outreach to Latin America All for Show?

Cuba is the largest island in the Caribbean and separates the Gulf of Mexico from the Caribbean Sea. Forming the choke point for shipping routes out of the Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, Cuba is a strategically significant territory in the Western Hemisphere.    Cuba lies in a subtropical humid zone with mostly flat geography that is well suited for agriculture, such as sugar, coffee and tobacco.    Havana is the political and economic core of Cuba, with more than 2 million people, or about 20 percent of the island's population. Rugged terrain to the southeast is dominated by the Sierra Maestra Mountains, which have historically been used by individuals seeking refuge from government control. It was from this region that the Cuban revolution of 1959 was planned and executed.    Cuba's major geographic challenge is its proximity and importance to the United States. Its location has repeatedly made the island a battleground in global affairs.The Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 was the pinnacle of conflict over Cuba, and since that time, U.S. policy has revolved around denying foreign powers military access to the island. In the wake of the Cold War, Cuba's close relationship with Venezuela has provided an important source of petroleum for the politically and economically isolated island.    Cuba is emerging from its communist economic model, but with limited resources and an underdeveloped industrial sector, it will take time for the country's economic model to evolve.

Venezuela's Unraveling

Security Challenges in Latin America

North America Unrivaled

SITUATION REPORTS

U.S., Cuba: Sources Report Pentagon Planning Military Operation in Cuba

Cuba, U.S.: Cuba's Prisoner Releases Begin With Common, Not Political, Criminals

Cuba, U.S., Russia: U.S. Allows Russian Tanker To Reach Cuba

Cuba, U.S.: Raul Castro Participates in U.S. Talks as Leaks About Negotiations Emerge

Cuba, U.S.: Havana Says It Is Preparing for Potential U.S. Military Aggression

Cuba, U.S.: Havana Further Relaxes Economic Rules Amid Grid Collapse and U.S. Pressure

Cuba: Unrest Over Power Outages Turns Violent

U.S., Cuba: Havana Confirms Talks With Washington

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