Colombia

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Colombian President Gustavo Petro said that if he could run for reelection, he would win in the first round, and he resumed calls to rewrite the country's constitution, Infobae reported on Jan. 27. 

Colombia: Petro Floats Constitutional Change To Run for Reelection Amid Popularity Boost

Ecuador

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Military & Security

Ecuador announced 30% tariffs on Colombian goods effective Feb. 1 over an alleged lack of cooperation in the fight against drug trafficking, Reuters reported on Jan. 21.

Colombia, Ecuador: Bogota Retaliates Against Quito's Security-Related Tariffs

United States

Colombian government officials sent a message to the U.S. government saying the country would continue to cooperate in the fight against drug trafficking, Reuters reported on Jan. 5.

U.S., Colombia: Colombian Government Tries To De-escalate Tensions Amid Trump-Petro Spat

Colombian President Gustavo Petro on Dec. 22 signed a decree stating that the country was facing an "imminent fiscal crisis" and declaring a 30-day economic emergency, allowing the government to adopt special taxes to reach its revenue target for 2026, Deutsche Welle reported Dec. 23. 

Colombia: President Petro Declares Economic Emergency To Implement Special Taxes

Mexico

Venezuela

U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Dec. 15 in which he designated "illicit fentanyl and its core precursor chemicals" as weapons of mass destruction, or WMD.

U.S.: Trump Designates Fentanyl, Precursors as Weapons of Mass Destruction

Colombian armed rebel leader Calarca exchanged messages with an army general and an intelligence officer, who shared information about military operations, Noticias Caracol reported Nov. 24.

Colombia: Guerrilla Leader Contact With Army and Intelligence Officials Likely To Undermine Petro Government

Colombian Defense Minister Pedro Sanchez said bombing operations against illegal armed groups would continue in the departments of Amazonas, Guaviare and Arauca, despite backlash against the government following the deaths of minors recruited into the Central General Staff, or EMC, Reuters reported on Nov. 19. 

Colombia: Government Plans To Continue Military Operations Against Armed Groups Amid Controversy

Colombian President Gustavo Petro suspended intelligence sharing with U.S. agencies until Washington halts attacks on drug trafficking boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, Reuters reported on Nov. 11. 

Colombia, U.S.: Intelligence Sharing Suspension Highlights Deteriorated Bilateral Ties

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RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2026

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Guyana

Venezuela's National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez (C) gestures during the official picture of the new National Assembly in Caracas on Jan. 5, 2026. 

Venezuela's acting president is most likely to cooperate with the United States to keep the country's regime intact, but other, more volatile scenarios remain possible. 

Venezuela's Post-Maduro Outlook: Potential Scenarios

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A U.S. Marine V-22 Osprey takes off from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport, formerly Roosevelt Roads Naval Station, on Sept. 13, 2025, in Ceiba, Puerto Rico. 

The Trump administration will likely expand its attacks against alleged drug traffickers in the region over the next year, potentially extending to land-based targets, which will create safety, operational and compliance challenges for organizations.

The Outlook for U.S. Strikes on Drug Traffickers in Latin America and the Caribbean

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(L-R) Colombian Foreign Minister Laura Sarabia, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Honduran Foreign Minister Eduardo Enrique Reina attend a plenary session of the China-CELAC ministerial meeting at the Great Hall of the People on May 13, 2025, in Beijing, China. 

Latin America and the Caribbean will welcome China's increased engagement, but strong ties to the West and China's economic slowdown will limit Beijing's influence in the region.

Despite Stronger Trade Ties, China's Influence in Latin America Will Remain Limited

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The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Colombian Foreign Relations Minister Luis Gilberto Murillo (C) looks on with other Colombian officials during a Jan. 26 press conference on a diplomatic dispute with the United States at the San Carlos Palace in Bogota, Colombia. 

The U.S. threat of tariffs and sanctions on Colombia because of a dispute over migrants offers a precedent for future White House threats against countries in Latin America and other parts of the world.

What Trump's Sanction and Tariff Threats Mean For Colombia 

U.S. border patrol officials drive near the wall along the Mexican border in Sasabe, Arizona, on Dec. 8, 2023. 

The fallout from Trump's pledged tariffs and mass deportations could worsen living conditions in countries like Mexico, though countries with like-minded leaders, like Argentina, may fare better.

What Trump's Focus on Immigration, Trade and Ideology Means for Latin America

Snapshots

Colombian President Gustavo Petro sits in front of a Colombian flag during a meeting in Lisbon, Portugal, on May 6, 2023. 

The president's struggle to find consensus with lawmakers will likely see him resort to controversial decrees or referendums to try to enact his proposed policy reforms. 

In Colombia, Ongoing Legislative Gridlock Bodes Ill for Petro's Reform Agenda

Colombian President Gustavo Petro participates in a march for International Workers Day in Bogota, Colombia, on May 1, 2024. 

The ongoing scandals and growing public dissatisfaction with the government will prolong political volatility and policy uncertainty in Colombia, while increasing the risk of social unrest.

What Another Corruption Scandal Means for Colombia's Fragile Government

Germany

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (C) April 12 in Dausa, India.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Indian Elections, Scholz Goes to China

Colombian President Gustavo Petro speaks during a meeting between the government, the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrilla leadership and civil organizations in Bogota, Colombia, on Aug. 3, 2023. 

President Petro is unlikely to fully abandon his flagship policy, but the government's recent decision to restart airstrikes against criminal groups indicates that it's reevaluating its broader security posture.

Amid Continued Setbacks, Colombia's Petro Rethinks His 'Total Peace' Strategy

Flooding on the Rimac River on March 18, 2017, in Chosica, at the foot of the Andes east of Lima, Peru. The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

The current El Nino contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023, and its effects will persist until it lifts in the second quarter of 2024.

How El Nino Will Impact Latin America in 2024

Colombia is located at the strategic meeting point of Central and South America. The country shares a land border with Panama, Venezuela, Brazil, Peru and Ecuador, and has coasts on both the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea.    Colombia's modern borders began to take shape in 1831 with the division of Simon Bolivar's Gran Colombia. In 1903, the country lost another strategic territory when Panama gained its independence. Ever since, Colombia has had to maintain friendly relations with whoever controls the Panama Canal.    Colombia is dissected by three Andean mountain ranges: the Western, Central, and Eastern Cordilleras. Because of the country's tropical equatorial climate, major population centers are concentrated in temperate zones at higher altitudes.     The country's economic and political heartland is the capital city of Bogota. This core region has a population of roughly 8 million people. The Magdalena River Basin connects the core to Cartagena and Barranquilla, the country's largest ports.      The dense Amazonian rain forests to the south, the sparsely populated Orinoco plains to the east, and the Pacific coastline make up Colombia's periphery. These regions are home to valuable commodities such as oil and coal, as well as areas of drug trafficking and rebel insurgency. Consolidating control over these areas is currently Colombia's primary geographic challenge.      Looking forward, the country's natural resource wealth and close proximity to the United States could lead to ongoing economic opportunities. That said, the country will continue to be constrained by security challenges and by poor integration between Colombia's population centers, the resource-rich hinterlands and the coasts.

SITUATION REPORTS

Colombia: Petro Floats Constitutional Change To Run for Reelection Amid Popularity Boost

Colombia, Ecuador: Bogota Retaliates Against Quito's Security-Related Tariffs

U.S., Colombia: Colombian Government Tries To De-escalate Tensions Amid Trump-Petro Spat

Colombia: President Petro Declares Economic Emergency To Implement Special Taxes

U.S.: Trump Designates Fentanyl, Precursors as Weapons of Mass Destruction

Colombia: Guerrilla Leader Contact With Army and Intelligence Officials Likely To Undermine Petro Government

Colombia: Government Plans To Continue Military Operations Against Armed Groups Amid Controversy

Colombia, U.S.: Intelligence Sharing Suspension Highlights Deteriorated Bilateral Ties

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