Brazil

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Politics

Brazilian authorities said President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's government opposes pressure from the U.S. Trump administration to designate Brazil's two largest organized criminal groups as terrorist organizations, Folha de S.Paulo reported on May 6. 

Brazil, U.S.: Brazil Opposes Designating Local Organized Criminal Groups as Terrorists

Argentina

Venezuela

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on social media that five Venezuelan opposition members have been successfully rescued from Argentina's embassy in Caracas after 412 days, Reuters reported May 6. 

U.S., Venezuela: Rescue of Opposition Members from Argentinian Embassy in Caracas Underscores U.S. Opposition to Venezuela

Brazil's two largest organized criminal groups, the Sao Paulo-based First Capital Command, or PCC, and the Rio de Janeiro-headquartered Red Command, or CV, announced the end of their countrywide truce that had been in force since February, CNN Brasil reported on April 29. 

Brazil: End of Organized Criminal Groups' Truce To Increase Indirect Security Risks

Brazilian lawmaker Pedro Lucas Fernandes rejected an invitation from President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva to become communications minister two weeks after the government announced he would take the role, g1 reported on April 22.

Brazil: Lawmaker's Refusal To Take Cabinet Position Suggests Slow Policymaking and Business Uncertainty

In a fiscal risks annex to the 2026 budget guidelines bill sent to Congress on April 15, the Brazilian Treasury acknowledged rising risks of public debt rollover and highlighted the need for fiscal consolidation, Reuters reported on April 16.

Brazil: Government Unlikely To Adopt Austerity Measures, Despite Growing Fiscal Risks

In response to new U.S. tariffs, Brazil's Congress approved a bill that provides a legal framework for the government to respond to unilateral trade measures targeting Brazilian goods and services, g1 reported April 2.

Brazil: Congress Passes Bill Allowing Trade Retaliation in Response to U.S. Tariffs

The Brazilian government sent the U.S. Trade Representative a document noting that the White House's tariff policies can severely undermine bilateral relations, g1 reported March 27.

Brazil, U.S.: Bilateral Trade to Marginally Cool Down as Brasilia Adopts Tough Rhetoric on Trump's Tariffs

Brazil's National Congress approved the 2025 budget after a three-month delay amid political tensions and a legal dispute over the executive's payment of budgetary grants to legislators, g1 reported on March 20. 

Brazil: Congress' Late Approval of 2025 Budget Suggests Marginal Improvement in Executive-Legislative Relations

Assessments

General view of the plenary session of Brazil's lower house in Brasilia during an April 2, 2025, vote on the reciprocity law, which allows the Brazilian government to retaliate against countries or economic blocs that impose trade barriers on products from Brazil. 

Global Trade

Although U.S. tariffs will hinder Brazil's economy and reduce foreign direct investment, unique opportunities for Brazilian exporters may mitigate the impact of the looming global trade war.

U.S. Protectionism Portends Opportunities and Hurdles for Brazil

Iran

Israel

Lebanon

Japan

Vietnam

United Kingdom

Ukraine

Russia

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (L) and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a joint press conference Feb. 16 at the prime minister's office in Jerusalem. Senior Israeli officials from the security and intelligence ministries will visit the United States to discuss Iran's nuclear program and Israeli border demarcation talks with Lebanon.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

U.S.-Iran Relations

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: The U.S. and Israel Coordinate on Iran, the U.K. Chancellor Seeks Fiscal Discipline

Snapshots

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro speaks at a seminar in Brasilia, Brazil, on Feb. 20, 2025.

The former president will likely be convicted on charges that he helped stage an armed coup in 2022. But the far-right will remain strong, potentially threatening President Lula's re-election bid next year.

What Bolsonaro's Likely Arrest Means for Brazilian Politics

Sub-Saharan Africa

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Tanzania

Americas

Colombia

Cuba

Haiti

Nicaragua

Iraq

Jordan

Palestinian Territories

Syria

Yemen

Cambodia

China

Indonesia

Europe

North Macedonia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Serbia

Albania

Kosovo

South Asia

Afghanistan

Bangladesh

India

The lobby of the headquarters for the U.S. Agency for International Development is seen on Feb. 3, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Social Issues

Cuts to U.S.-funded humanitarian and development programs could worsen global health outcomes, destabilize security environments, accelerate democratic backsliding, and create opportunities for rival powers to expand their influence.

The Global Implications of Trump's Foreign Aid Cuts

Low savings and investment, along with an increasingly uncertain fiscal outlook and increasing debt, make it unlikely that Brazil will succeed in maintaining its current growth momentum.

Brazil’s Economic Growth Is Set To Face Headwinds

Changes in rainfall patterns and extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change will increasingly challenge Brazil's crop production, causing unrest.

Environment, Science & Technology

Global Elections

Science & Technology

The Geopolitics of Water: The Impact of Climate Change on Brazil's Agribusiness

Angola

Cote d'Ivoire

Ghana

Kenya

Nigeria

Canada

Ecuador

Mexico

Algeria

Kuwait

Qatar

Saudi Arabia

Tunisia

Turkey

United Arab Emirates

Taiwan

Belarus

Pakistan

World map on a dark digital background representing global communication and global finances.

Cyber

Energy

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025 highlights high-impact, low-probability risks and trends from the annual forecast presented in more extreme terms.

RANE's Top 10 Risks for 2025

The entrance of the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange is seen in downtown Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Dec. 17, 2024.

Although the government will likely announce more spending cuts, they are unlikely to eliminate investor skepticism, portending further macroeconomic instability.

How Will Brazil's Financial Crisis Evolve in 2025?

Bolivia

Paraguay

Uruguay

Germany

France

(From left to right) Argentine President Javier Milei, Uruguayan President Luis Lacalle Pou, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Paraguayan President Santiago Pena pose for a photo during the Mercosur summit in Montevideo on Dec. 6, 2024. 

The agreement offers significant market access and diversification opportunities for both trade blocs, but it also faces a complex ratification process and potential political backlash in Europe.

25 Years in the Making: Reviewing the EU-Mercosur Trade Deal

Senegal

Austria

A G-20 summit banner on Nov. 12 at City Hall in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will host G-20 leaders Nov. 18-19 in Rio de Janeiro, where he will try to secure support for three main proposals.

The Weekly Rundown: Brazil Hosts the G-20, Constitutional Crisis Looms in Israel

Chile

El Salvador

Guatemala

Honduras

U.S. border patrol officials drive near the wall along the Mexican border in Sasabe, Arizona, on Dec. 8, 2023. 

The fallout from Trump's pledged tariffs and mass deportations could worsen living conditions in countries like Mexico, though countries with like-minded leaders, like Argentina, may fare better.

What Trump's Focus on Immigration, Trade and Ideology Means for Latin America

South Africa

Egypt

Moldova

Vehicles pass by a banner thanking outgoing Indonesian President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo and congratulating President-elect Prabowo Subianto and Vice President-elect Gibran Rakabuming Raka ahead of their Oct. 20 inauguration in Jakarta, Indonesia, on Oct. 17, 2024.

The Weekly Rundown: An Impeachment Case in Kenya, an Inauguration in Indonesia

<p>Larger in land mass than the contiguous United States, Brazil borders every country on the South American continent except Ecuador and Chile. Three features define Brazil&#39;s geography: the Amazon Basin, tropical savanna and the Brazilian Highlands. The Amazon River and rain forest, the world&#39;s largest, encompass most of northern Brazil and make this region inhospitable to agriculture and large populations. To its south lies the Cerrado, a vast tropical savanna. Advances in agricultural practices have allowed large-scale farming to thrive in this region. However, due to distance and geography, Brazil faces daunting challenges in getting agricultural commodities to international markets. The Brazilian Highlands and the narrow strip of land between the mountains and the coast are home to the majority of the country&#39;s 197 million people. Most of the country&#39;s economic activity occurs in this region. Brazil&#39;s geography largely shields it from external military threats. The Atlantic Ocean, the Amazon Basin and the buffer states of Bolivia, Paraguay and Uruguay insulate the country. Brazil&#39;s varied regions have made centralized control and integration difficult for the core states of Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais. Infrastructure linking the coast and the interior, as well as connecting the various coastal cities is technically difficult and requires high levels of investment. Isolated from the rest of the continent both geographically and linguistically and lacking internal cohesion, Brazil has traditionally been inward looking. Brazil&#39;s primary geographic challenging is consolidating control over its vast peripheral territory and connecting these regions more efficiently with its population centers and ports.</p>

SITUATION REPORTS

Brazil, U.S.: Brazil Opposes Designating Local Organized Criminal Groups as Terrorists

U.S., Venezuela: Rescue of Opposition Members from Argentinian Embassy in Caracas Underscores U.S. Opposition to Venezuela

Brazil: End of Organized Criminal Groups' Truce To Increase Indirect Security Risks

Brazil: Lawmaker's Refusal To Take Cabinet Position Suggests Slow Policymaking and Business Uncertainty

Brazil: Government Unlikely To Adopt Austerity Measures, Despite Growing Fiscal Risks

Brazil: Congress Passes Bill Allowing Trade Retaliation in Response to U.S. Tariffs

Brazil, U.S.: Bilateral Trade to Marginally Cool Down as Brasilia Adopts Tough Rhetoric on Trump's Tariffs

Brazil: Congress' Late Approval of 2025 Budget Suggests Marginal Improvement in Executive-Legislative Relations

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