Compared with China and even Russia, Iranian cyber operations often embrace a higher risk tolerance to cause operational impediments for critical infrastructure entities and other Western organizations. If former U.S. President Donald Trump is reelected in November, Iran will double down on its aggressive cyber operations, whereas U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris' election would offer at least a narrow opportunity for disruptive activity to lessen. Iran's higher risk tolerance is steeped in the regime's pervasive hostility toward the West and desire to upend the Western-led global and specifically regional order, leveraging cyber as a way to maximize retaliation short of more escalatory measures. China and Russia share elements of this worldview, but comparatively Russia has generally reserved its most aggressive cyber campaigns for non-Western theaters, such as Ukraine, while China has largely prioritized espionage over disruption. To this end, there have been numerous incidents of Iranian-backed groups targeting Western water...
