ASSESSMENTS

As Honduran Unrest Flares, So Will Immigration to the United States

Jul 3, 2019 | 09:00 GMT

Central American migrants, mostly from Honduras, climb over a barrier as they try to reach the U.S.-Mexico border on Nov. 25, 2018, near the El Chaparral border crossing in Tijuana, Baja California State, Mexico.

(PEDRO PARDO/AFP/Getty Images)

Highlights

Mexico has promised the United States it will reduce the surge in migration across their shared border under threat of U.S. tariffs.
The number of Hondurans seeking asylum or employment in the United States will likely remain stubbornly high amid persistent political and economic instability there.
The United States will use any continued migrant surge fueled by Honduran unrest to try to extract concessions from the Mexican government, which will, in turn, try to delay making them — if it can.

Though Central Americans for years have accounted for an increasing percentage of overall migrants crossing the U.S. border illegally, their numbers grew dramatically in early 2019. In May 2019 alone, about 130,000 people were arrested trying to cross the border. The composition of migrant flows also shifted, with the number of individuals in families apprehended at the border by U.S. authorities growing from 105,000 during all of 2018 to almost 330,000 during the first five months of 2019. Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador are currently the main sources of illegal immigration to the United States that pass illegally through Mexico. Honduras is the second-largest source of migrants entering the United States illegally. With swelling unrest in Honduras likely to worsen the economy and spark more migration through Mexico to the United States, Washington may well return to its threat to impose tariffs on Mexico....

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