The near-term threat of severe escalation between India and Pakistan has waned, but ceasefire violations remain possible and, over the long term, disagreements on water-sharing and third-party mediation in Kashmir will sustain tensions and the risk of cross-border flare-ups. Late on May 12, India and Pakistan's directors general of military operations spoke by phone, days after India and Pakistan on May 10 agreed to a ceasefire after coming close to full-blown conflict. The ceasefire so far appears to be broadly holding (albeit tenuously), with clashes easing along the disputed India-Pakistan border in Kashmir, known as the Line of Control. Much remains unclear about the circumstances surrounding the truce, including the precise role international pressure played in bringing it about. However, the announcement came just hours after cross-border attacks had sharply escalated, with India reportedly striking several Pakistani airbases, including one near Islamabad, to which Pakistan responded by reportedly hitting two...
